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How long can it last?

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Equity Wobble

US stock markets extended their recovery following a sharp sell-off at the start of the week. Mounting concerns over the spread of the Delta variant and its ability to interrupt a strong reopening and economic recovery resulted in the worst day for global stocks in some months on Monday.

Since then, a string of upbeat earnings reports and some aggressive 'buying the dip' strategies revived market optimism.

Double Your Money

The S&P 500 has now doubled in value in just 15 months following the March 2020 Pullback: The second fastest double in history, second only to the 1932 reversal after the infamous 80%+ crash of the great depression.

It is worth noting that the cumulative earnings for companies within the S&P 500 is set to double over the same period.

The market hasn't doubled for no reason despite what some market heretics proclaim.

A Closer Look

After a brief respite due to strong market rotation dynamics, the narrow breadth of the S&P 500 is back in focus. The S&P 500 is up 4% since June 3, but ~80% of that move can be attributed to just the largest five stocks. This concentration in returns is one to watch as narrowing breadth is a sign of internal weakness and can sometimes precede pullback periods.

Market Outlook

As we focus on the second half of the year, investors will undoubtedly be haunted by fleeting bouts of uncertainty. Echoes of 'this surely can't last forever' screech louder and louder as markets continue to notch up all-time highs. This uncertainty and doubt is an inherent part of the human condition that even the most steadfast investor must grapple with.

Lately, market participants are constantly worrying about, well, everything. Their concerns range from inflation and the Delta variant to tech regulation and tensions with China. None of these fears are irrational, but they are part and parcel of any investment. While all these concerns could negatively impact markets over the near term, there is no reward without risk, and historically, it hasn't paid to be a pessimist.

While the outlook is broadly positive, uncertainties remain, as mentioned above. Economic statistics have been consistently positive in recent times, but this positive news stream is now simply functioning to maintain the current levels of market exuberance.

As we advance, it won't be enough to say that businesses are recovering, and earnings are increasing. The market will need to hear about a stable recovery and more robust future earnings to come. As a result, market participants will be far more sensitive to any negative news, fuelling the fragility and volatility in the most exposed sectors of the market.

My overarching view is that economic recovery will persist, and upside remains, fuelled by higher earnings, fiscal stimulus, and low interest rates. With that said, pullbacks and market rotations are likely, and any deviation away from this base case scenario will create a painful environment for those holding the most speculative names.

As always, caution and patience are the order of the day.

For investing tips, go to www.theislandinvestor.com.

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Cost of agricultural land set to increase by 8% this year

By Ted Healy of DNG TED HEALY The results of a survey on agricultural land values conducted by the Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland (SCSI) was published earlier this week. […]

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By Ted Healy of DNG TED HEALY

The results of a survey on agricultural land values conducted by the Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland (SCSI) was published earlier this week.

It predicts an increase in land values by an average of 8% this year and an increase of 14% on average in rental values.

The report titled, ‘SCSI/Teagasc Agricultural Land Market Review & Outlook Report 2023’, analyses the agri sector performance over the past year and projects how it will perform over the next 12 months.

In all 134 agri professionals and valuers were surveyed, who expect the outlook for dairy farmers to ease and a challenging future for sheep and tillage farming.

Rental Land values in Munster increased by an average of 13% in the last year with a 9% increase experienced in Leinster.

The report indicates that the average non-residential farmland prices in 2022 ranged from €5,564 per acre for poor quality land – up five percent from €5,308 in 2021 – to €11,172 per acre for good quality land – up two percent from €10,962 the previous year. Strong demand from dairy farmers for good quality land is driving the market.

The majority of those surveyed believe there is likely to be an increase in demand from dairy farmers to purchase farmland in 2023.

One point to note however, is that changes to the European Nitrates Directive, particularly measures aimed at protecting water quality, may have an impact on land prices, especially rental prices.

In order to maintain current levels of milk production – and to comply with the directive – many dairy farms will need to either increase their land area or reduce milk production.

The Residential Zoned Land Tax (RZLT) is also coming down the line at an alarming rate, farmers have until May 1 to make a written appeal. Under the new legislation farmers owning currently zoned land face an annual tax bill of 3% of the market value of their zoned land.

This will result in countless numbers of landowners facing crippling tax bills from next year on. It is expected that this new tax may bring forward extra land sales later this year before the tax takes hold.

The IFA (Irish Farmers Association) have this week sought a senior counsel review of the legislation governing the Residential Zoned Land Tax.

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What is a Fire Safety Certificate?

By John Healy of Healy Insurances A Fire Safety Certificate is an official document that verifies if a building design submitted as part of an application will, if constructed in […]

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By John Healy of Healy Insurances

A Fire Safety Certificate is an official document that verifies if a building design submitted as part of an application will, if constructed in accordance with the plans and specifications approved by the Building Control Authority, comply with the requirements of the Building Regulations.

Fire Safety Certificates are issued by a Building Control Authority. The certificate confirms that the building has adequate escape facilities and that the building is designed in a way that prevents and limits the spread of fire. While all buildings must comply with the fire regulations, not all buildings will need a Fire Safety Certificate.

Which developments require a Fire Safety Certificate?

The Building Control Act (1990 & 2007) specifies the development types that require Fire Safety Certificates:

· Works in connection with the design and construction of a new building
· Works in connection with the material alteration of a day centre, a building containing a flat, a hotel, hostel or guest building, an institutional building, a place of assembly, a shopping centre
· Works in connection with the material alteration of a shop, office or industrial building where additional floor area is being provided within the existing building or where the building is being sub-divided into a number of units for separate occupancy
· Works in connection with the extension of a building by more than 25 square metres
· A building as regards which a material change of use takes place.

Some developments are exempted from requiring a Fire Certificate and can include:

· Certain single storey agricultural buildings
· A building used as a dwelling (other than a flat)
· A single storey domestic garage
· A single storey building ancillary to a dwelling which is used exclusively for recreational or storage purposes or the keeping of plants, birds or animals for domestic purposes and is not used for any trade or business or for human habitation
· Works in connection with a Garda station, a courthouse, a barracks and certain government buildings.

If a building is inspected by a member of the building control authority and it transpired that no Fire Safety Certificate is in place, the building could be subject to closure. For more information see www.kerrycoco.ie/home3/building-control/firesafetycerts.

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