Property & Finance
How long can it last?

Equity Wobble
US stock markets extended their recovery following a sharp sell-off at the start of the week. Mounting concerns over the spread of the Delta variant and its ability to interrupt a strong reopening and economic recovery resulted in the worst day for global stocks in some months on Monday.
Since then, a string of upbeat earnings reports and some aggressive 'buying the dip' strategies revived market optimism.
Double Your Money
The S&P 500 has now doubled in value in just 15 months following the March 2020 Pullback: The second fastest double in history, second only to the 1932 reversal after the infamous 80%+ crash of the great depression.
It is worth noting that the cumulative earnings for companies within the S&P 500 is set to double over the same period.
The market hasn't doubled for no reason despite what some market heretics proclaim.
A Closer Look
After a brief respite due to strong market rotation dynamics, the narrow breadth of the S&P 500 is back in focus. The S&P 500 is up 4% since June 3, but ~80% of that move can be attributed to just the largest five stocks. This concentration in returns is one to watch as narrowing breadth is a sign of internal weakness and can sometimes precede pullback periods.
Market Outlook
As we focus on the second half of the year, investors will undoubtedly be haunted by fleeting bouts of uncertainty. Echoes of 'this surely can't last forever' screech louder and louder as markets continue to notch up all-time highs. This uncertainty and doubt is an inherent part of the human condition that even the most steadfast investor must grapple with.
Lately, market participants are constantly worrying about, well, everything. Their concerns range from inflation and the Delta variant to tech regulation and tensions with China. None of these fears are irrational, but they are part and parcel of any investment. While all these concerns could negatively impact markets over the near term, there is no reward without risk, and historically, it hasn't paid to be a pessimist.
While the outlook is broadly positive, uncertainties remain, as mentioned above. Economic statistics have been consistently positive in recent times, but this positive news stream is now simply functioning to maintain the current levels of market exuberance.
As we advance, it won't be enough to say that businesses are recovering, and earnings are increasing. The market will need to hear about a stable recovery and more robust future earnings to come. As a result, market participants will be far more sensitive to any negative news, fuelling the fragility and volatility in the most exposed sectors of the market.
My overarching view is that economic recovery will persist, and upside remains, fuelled by higher earnings, fiscal stimulus, and low interest rates. With that said, pullbacks and market rotations are likely, and any deviation away from this base case scenario will create a painful environment for those holding the most speculative names.
As always, caution and patience are the order of the day.
For investing tips, go to www.theislandinvestor.com.
News
Cost of agricultural land set to increase by 8% this year
By Ted Healy of DNG TED HEALY The results of a survey on agricultural land values conducted by the Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland (SCSI) was published earlier this week. […]
News
What is a Fire Safety Certificate?
By John Healy of Healy Insurances A Fire Safety Certificate is an official document that verifies if a building design submitted as part of an application will, if constructed in […]