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From November all homes will be revalued

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By Ted Healy of DNG TED HEALY

The property talk over the course of the past week has revolved around the recent announcements relating to property tax.

The Local Property Tax (LPT) is an annual self-assessed tax charged on the market value of all residential properties in Ireland. It came into effect on July 1, 2013 and is collected by the Revenue Commissioners.

Under plans announced at Cabinet this week, homes built after 2013 will now face inclusion in the Local Property Tax.

Up until now the Local Property Tax was levied on property valuations from May 1, 2013. Homes that were built since that date have so far not been liable to the tax as they do not have a valuation dating from then.

This is now about to change which will bring approximately 100,000 homes into the Property Tax net. The new valuation date is to be November of this year with every home in the country liable for the tax by 2022.

It has been reported that 60% of home owners will not be paying any more than they already do, while 10% will see a decrease. It is estimated the change will raise €560 million annually.

Government have advised that from November of this year all homes will be revalued, but it would be done in such a way that it recognises the affordability challenges facing many families. Despite the fact that many properties would have significantly increased in value since 2013, a change in the calculation of band widths will ensure properties do not jump up any more than one value band.

There is also a change to the system that redistributes some of the property tax outside the local authority limits. Currently, 80% of the monies raised are retained in the area, with 20% sent to local authorities. From 2023 it is understood that one hundred percent will be retained in the local authority with central Government making up any shortfall.

There is no need for homeowners to do anything just yet as Revenue have advised they will contact homeowners directly once the changes have been passed into law.

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Pandemic policy changes have left us with skewed data figures

By Michael O’Connor They say history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes – at this point however, even the rhyming has stopped. The pandemic policy changes have left us […]

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By Michael O’Connor

They say history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes – at this point however, even the rhyming has stopped.

The pandemic policy changes have left us with skewed data figures, manipulated comp stats and a remarkably unfamiliar backdrop resulting in immeasurable uncertainty amongst investors across the globe.

During times like this, it is best to break complex problems down to their simplest forms and concentrate solely on the most crucial variables.

And the most crucial variables in this case are inflation and Fed policy.

An infinite number of potential outcomes are possible over the coming months, but all will be derived based on the aggressiveness of future Fed adjustments and the persistence of inflation.

There will always be risk

There is no perfect scenario here. The inflation we are experiencing is the by-product of an overheating economy.

The cumulative net worth of US Households is now almost $150 Trillion, $80 Trillion more than it was 10 years ago. The US labour market currently boasts two jobs for every one person looking for work, and corporate earnings jumped 35% in 2021, the largest increase since 1950.

Simply put, there is more money in the system than ever before.

The supply side issues have been well documented, but if inflation is to be quelled, then the demand side of the equation needs to be solved.

This is where the Fed’s tightening cycle comes in.

The Fed cannot improve supply issues, but they can negatively impact demand by dampening the labour market and decreasing the amount of capital in the systems through higher interest rates.

This tighter monetary policy is expected to bring inflation under control, but as the Fed increases the speed of rate hikes, the odds of economic contraction also increase.

In short, the goldilocks scenario of a gradual decline in inflation while maintaining labour market strength, household wealth and corporate profits, remains a pipe dream.

To strip inflation out of the system, a period of economic contraction is a necessary evil.

Crucially, this contraction does not need to lead to a crippling recession or anything of the sort. The level of contraction we experience will depend solely on the Fed’s ability to strike a balance between cooling inflation and maintaining demand.

Only time will tell if they can successfully thread the needle.

Jumping back in

Before declaring an all-clear for stocks, investors need to believe we are at the peak of policy tightening and inflationary pressure.

Certainly, we are seeing signs of improvement from an inflationary standpoint. For example, wheat prices are now lower than at the beginning of the war in Ukraine – another showcase of the unpredictability of markets.

With that said, one crucial paradox remains. Investors want interest rates to fall so stocks can rise, but any fall in interest rates is unlikely if stocks rally, somewhat capping the recent upside.

Make a plan

As always, I encourage a long-term focus. Investors will be better served focusing on the bull market opportunity on the other side rather than overemphasising what may be left in the bear market.

Those looking to take advantage of any potential upside need to get their house in order. You need to take the time to develop a clear picture of what your allocation will look like, create a watchlist of preferred names and know your entry points.

Scrambling together a plan after the fact is a sure-fire way to ensure you miss the very opportunity you were trying to capture.

Learn more at

https://www.theislandinvestor.com/

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Tenant’s termination notices have risen by 58%

By Ted Healy of DNG TED HEALY It has been highlighted this week that the number of termination notices issued by landlords to tenants has risen by 58% in the […]

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By Ted Healy of DNG TED HEALY

It has been highlighted this week that the number of termination notices issued by landlords to tenants has risen by 58% in the first six months of the year compared to the previous six months.

There were 2,913 termination notices issued in the first six months of this year compared to 1,845 in the last six months of 2021.

It is reported that 55% of those notices were for the purpose of sale of the property.

A ban on evictions during lockdown periods during the COVID-19 pandemic lowered the number of termination notices. However, the eviction moratorium was lifted in April 2021 and numbers have been rising significantly since then.

The figures, released by the Residential Tenancies Board, have been described as “very alarming and require urgent action”.

They highlight the ongoing crisis in the rental sector and make for stark reading. At the time of writing only four properties were advertised as being available for rent in Killarney on Daft.ie.

The exodus of private landlords from the market is a real concern and needs to be addressed. Landlords exiting the market in greatest numbers at present are those that in the past had charged rents that were less than market rates and are now only able to minimally increase rent on their properties because they are subject to Rent Pressure Zone rules.

The Government has extended Rent Pressure Zones until the end of 2024 and has prohibited any rent increase in a Rent Pressure Zone from exceeding general inflation or two percent, whichever is lower.

However, more needs to be done to entice private landlords to stay in the market and supply of available properties needs to be increased.

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