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What’s next for the property market?

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By Michael O’Connor    

This weekend I spent much of my time scrolling through various property websites, virtually searching through houses both at home and abroad.

Now don’t get me wrong, I do this quite a bit, but typically, I’m doing it out of curiosity more than intent.

Generally my wife sends me a link to a house, I have a nose at the pictures, and then I carry on living my life, the end.

This time it’s different.

The fact that we might actually buy one of the homes behind the link this time around adds a whole new and altogether stressful layer to a previously beloved pastime.

Like many, the idea of investing in property is something I have toyed with for a while. From a financial standpoint, I have never been overly drawn to the idea of real estate as an asset class.

Despite our cultural obsession with homeownership, there are multiple downsides. Blasphemy, I know, but bear with me.

Mortgage fees, property taxes, insurance, maintenance costs, estate agent fees, lack of mobility, landlord duties - to name just a few. All these seem to be conveniently forgotten when the back of the envelope property performance calc is being done.

Since 1940, the median home value in the United States, adjusted for home size, has increased at an annualised rate of 4.6%. After accounting for inflation, the average home value has risen by just 1.5% per year.

Stocks have generated roughly 7% per year over the long run after accounting for inflation. In other words, the stock market has generated returns at more than four times the rate of real estate appreciation.

With that being said, I do have some gripes with the stats above. Firstly, it ignores the excess volatility you get from the stock market.

Secondly, and more importantly, you can’t just strip out the leverage effect.

One final unique upside; if the capital appreciation isn’t what you expect, you can still live in it. The stock market doesn’t offer you a roof over your head.

Like most things in life, nothing is ever as good, or as bad, as it seems.

Property is no different.

With the background out of the way, let’s get into the important stuff.

Where do prices go from here?

My opinion: Do I think house prices are cripplingly high for first-time buys? Yes. Do I think they can go higher? Absolutely.

While I don’t think that property can continue to grow at the same clip into a rising interest rate environment, there are too many supportive variables at play to justify any significant move lower.

To read the full in-depth review of each factor driving the current property market and how long these factors will persist, go to www.theislandinvestor.com.

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Government latte levy delay is fuelling litter crisis

The founders of the Killarney Coffee Cup Project and the environmental group VOICE have issued a warning that government inaction is undermining local efforts to reduce waste. Despite Killarney leading […]

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The founders of the Killarney Coffee Cup Project and the environmental group VOICE have issued a warning that government inaction is undermining local efforts to reduce waste.

Despite Killarney leading the way as Ireland’s first coffee cup-free town, the group says the project is now on “precarious footing” because a promised national levy on disposable cups has failed to materialise.
The “latte levy” was included in the Circular Economy Act 2022, but a start date has yet to be confirmed. Advocates argue that without this charge at the point of sale, there is no financial incentive for customers to switch to reusables, leaving local independent businesses to carry the burden alone.
The call for action follows the latest IBAL (Irish Business Against Litter) report, which found that disposable coffee cups remain a major litter problem, appearing in one-fifth of all surveyed sites across Ireland.
In contrast, the report noted that plastic bottles and cans have become 60% less common since the Deposit Return Scheme was introduced last year, proving that state-led financial measures are effective.
“We need Government to act, so that we can level the playing field. Without a levy, at the point of sale, customers are not incentivised to choose reusable alternatives, businesses aren’t motivated to offer reusable alternatives, and large coffee chains continue with their business models that depend on disposables.” said the founders of the Killarney Coffee Cup Project. “The loss of political will is deeply worrying.”
Ireland currently uses over 200 million single-use cups every year.
VOICE and local organisers point to the success of the plastic bag levy as a model, noting that it changed public behaviour almost overnight.
They argue that funds from a cup levy could be ringfenced to pay for national infrastructure, such as specialized street bins and cleaning hubs for reusable cups.
Tad Kirakowski, CEO of VOICE, urged the government to honour its commitment, stating that continued delays send the wrong signal and lock the country into unnecessary waste.

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Road safety crisis as accidents skyrocket by 33 percent

A stark warning has been issued to motorists across the county following the release of harrowing new figures at this week’s Killarney Municipal District meeting. The data reveals that the […]

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A stark warning has been issued to motorists across the county following the release of harrowing new figures at this week’s Killarney Municipal District meeting.

The data reveals that the whole county facing a deepening road safety crisis, after a string of early-year tragedies.
County-wide statistics show that road traffic collisions have surged to 309 last year, marking a significant 33.7 percent increase compared to the 231 incidents recorded during the same period in 2024.
Eight of them were fatal, one more than in 2025.
Even more alarming is the situation within the Killarney Municipal District itself, which has already recorded two road deaths in just the first 16 days of 2026.
This rate already exceeds the local averages for both 2024 and 2025.
The latest fatal incident occurred on Saturday, January 10, on the N22 Killarney-Tralee road near Dromadeesirt in the area known locally as Brennan’s Glen .
Emergency services were alerted to a two-car collision at approximately 6:40pm. where a male driver in his 40s was tragically pronounced deceased at the scene.
This followed another single-vehicle tragedy on January 3 at Knockdooragh, Headford, where a man in his 30s lost his life after his car struck a tree late at night.
These local tragedies follow a concerning national trend.
Provisional figures from the Road Safety Authority show that 185 people died on Irish roads in 2025, an eight percent rise from the previous year.
In Kerry, eight people lost their lives on the roads last year, leaving the county with the sixth-highest death rate in Ireland.
Safety concerns were further highlighted on Wednesday, January 7, when a two-vehicle collision at the Ardaneanig junction near the Torc Hotel forced the closure of the road between Lissivigeen and Rathmore.
While this specific incident was non-fatal, it shows the high frequency of serious accidents currently occurring in the district.
Gardaí continue to appeal for witnesses to the recent fatal collisions. Anyone with dash-cam footage or information regarding the N22 incident or the Headford collision is asked to contact Killarney Garda Station on 064 6671160.

No Confidence” motion to be tabled as RSA faces mounting criticism
The deepening road safety crisis is set to be discussed at next week’s meeting of Kerry County Council in Tralee, with a “no confidence” motion being tabled against the Road Safety Authority (RSA). I
Independent Cllr Jackie Healy-Rae has confirmed he will ask the local authority to write to the Minister for Transport expressing a total lack of confidence in the RSA in its current format.
The motion comes as local representatives express growing frustration over the agency’s effectiveness during a period of rising fatalities.
The motion will be debated by the full council on Monday, January 19. If passed, it would represent a significant formal rebuke of the national body from one of the counties most affected by the recent surge in road traffic collisions.

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