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Improve your decision-making process

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By Michael O’Connor, theislandinvestor.com

I am someone who wants to see all the information before making a decision.

This is a debilitating character flaw in a profession where every decision is based on limited information and unknowable future outcomes.

When I first started investing, I wanted all the answers before placing a trade. I wanted certainty. As a result, I missed out on countless opportunities.

Over the years, I have worked hard to overcome this. One of the first steps was accepting that investing is a game of probability, not certainty.

People say investing is like chess, but in chess, all information is known and there is a right and wrong way forward at any point. It's based on computation.

Investing is more like poker. Both are games of incomplete information. Your success over the long run will come down to your ability to make the best possible decisions based on the available information.

Flaws in our decision-making process

With this in mind, let’s focus on one of the most common flaws in our decision making process – resulting.
This refers to our tendency to use the outcome of a decision to determine whether or not we have made the right choice. But there are a number of issues with this.

Bad decisions have 'good' outcomes all the time. Imagine you're late for work and approaching a crossroads as the traffic light turns red. You decide to run the light. You get through just fine and make it to work on time.
Was that the right decision?
The outcome was favourable, but you risked potential death to shave two minutes off your commute. A questionable decision at best.

Reinforcing bad behaviour

Previously successful outcomes convince you that it is a good decision.
Sticking with the driving analogies. Imagine you decide to drive home after a few drinks. You get home just fine. So you do it again and again. The successful outcomes compound to the point where you convince yourself this is a perfectly safe thing to do. You become more and more reckless until, eventually, disaster strikes.

Just because the probability of a negative outcome (getting caught, crashing) is low doesn't mean the risk/reward payoff makes sense.

We see this in investing all the time. Traders make statistically questionable decisions that work out in their favour. The initial positive results reinforce the risk-taking behaviour until they eventually get blown up.
Bad decisions can play out in your favour for a long time, but eventually, the statistical probability will catch up with you.

The Element of luck

In poker, you can play a hand perfectly and still lose because there's this luck element to it. Most decisions in life work the same way.

Ignoring the impact of luck means we convince ourselves that we made the wrong decisions when in reality, the decision was correct; we were just unlucky, or vice versa.

Imagine you have a trick coin that is heavier on one side, so it comes up 'heads' 90% of the time. If you place a bet with someone and the coin comes up with 'tails', was that a bad bet? No, you were just 'unlucky'. Every decision is based on probability, but the probability won't always work in your favour.

A 90% chance you will win is still a 10% chance you will lose. Losing doesn't automatically make it a bad decision.

Focus on the process

When investing, we need to focus on the decision-making process, not the outcome. You want to select the options with the highest likelihood of a positive result. But even if you do this, you can still lose. Not every investment will be a winner.

But if you keep making well-thought-out decisions based on a process that is true to your criteria, these decisions will compound and work in your favour over time.

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N22 tragedy highlights infrastructure failures

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A motion of no confidence in the Road Safety Authority (RSA), put forward by Cllr Jackie Healy-Rae, was passed unanimously at the January meeting of Kerry County Council on Monday.

The move reflects a cross-party frustration with the national agency’s effectiveness, especially following a recent fatal crash on a stretch of the N22 that had already been flagged as high-risk by experts.


The motion was supported by members from across the Council chamber and reflected growing concern at the direction, priorities, and effectiveness of the RSA, particularly in the context of rising road fatalities.

According to RSA figures, approximately 185 people lost their lives on public roads in Ireland in 2025, one of the highest figures in over a decade. Eight of those deaths occurred in County Kerry.


Speaking following the meeting, Cllr Jackie Healy-Rae said the figures represented a clear failure of national road safety leadership. “Despite unprecedented levels of legislation, enforcement, and penalties on our roads, fatalities are going up. That tells us that something is fundamentally wrong with how road safety is being managed at national level,” he said.

The motion specifically criticised what Cllr Healy-Rae described as the RSA’s over-reliance on expensive advertising and “spin.”


He highlighted the 30km/h speed limit campaign, which cost nearly €1 million in production and media fees, while real-world engineering issues remain ignored.

Warnings ignored on the N22


A central issue raised during the debate was the neglect of road infrastructure safety.
Cllr Healy-Rae pointed to warnings from Transport Infrastructure Ireland (TII), which previously identified the N22 corridor as a route where additional deaths and serious injuries were inevitable without urgent upgrades.


That warning was tragically borne out on Saturday, January 10, when a man in his 40s lost his life in a two-car collision at Dromadeesirt.


This follows years of local demands for the construction of the new Farranfore to Killarney bypass to remove traffic from dangerous, substandard sections of the existing road.


“Dangerous junctions, poor alignments, and substandard roads cannot be fixed by advertising campaigns,” Cllr Healy-Rae said. “Engineering and infrastructure save lives, and they are being neglected by the RSA because it is not a ‘sexy’ enough issue for them.”


While the motion contrasted the RSA’s approach with local efforts including Kerry County Council’s appointment of a Road Safety Officer and the funding of school wardens Cllr Healy-Rae warned that local authorities must also act.

He urged the Council to use its own resources to fix dangerous junctions rather than waiting on central grants that may never arrive.


The unanimously passed motion now calls for a fundamental re-evaluation of the RSA’s role, demanding a shift from “slogans and messaging” to practical, evidence-based interventions that actually reduce road deaths.

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Musical Society introduces Lily MacMonagle Shannon as Sylvia for 40th anniversary show

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As Killarney Musical Society prepares to celebrate its 40th anniversary with the production of ‘All Shook Up’, the spotlight this week falls on local performer Lily MacMonagle Shannon, who takes on the role of Sylvia.

The highly anticipated show will run at the Gleneagle Arena on February 10, 11, and 12.


The character of Sylvia is the sharp-witted and confident owner of the local bar where much of the musical’s action unfolds.

A central figure in the town, she is portrayed as a voice of experience and honesty.

While she maintains a tough and worldly exterior, the story follows her journey toward self-acceptance and a second chance at romance.


Lily MacMonagle Shannon is a well-known figure in the Killarney arts scene as a performer, director, and educator.

A graduate of The Bull Alley Theatre Training Company and Trinity Guildhall London, she is also the founder and director of The MACademy Performing Arts School.


A member of the Killarney Musical Society since 1998, Lily’s previous stage credits include Grease, Me & My Girl, and Evita.

She notably won an AIMS Best Actress award for her portrayal of the title role in Sweet Charity.

Beyond her own performances, Lily has seen many of her students go on to perform at the INEC and appear on RTÉ Junior.


Speaking about the upcoming production, Lily stated she is honoured to be part of the society’s landmark 40th year and looks forward to many more years on the Killarney stage.


Tickets for the three-night run of ‘All Shook Up’ are currently available through Ticketmaster or via the Gleneagle Box Office.

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