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Back in a bear market

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By Michael O’Connor

Investors' wounds deepened last week as the S&P 500 fell nearly 3%, declining for the fourth week out of the past five.

The NASDAQ precipitous decline continued into Monday, putting the tech-based index into bear-market territory, as it fell more than 20.0% below a recent high set in November. While this drop may seem alarming, the NASDAQ has compounded at 21% a year for the last five years despite experiencing three bear markets in the past five years.

All is not lost.

To be blunt, the outlook remains very much uncertain. The degree and duration of the war are huge unknowns that can change rapidly and have enormous implications on economic growth, inflation, and interest rates.

With that said, my base case remains the same. The war can subside over the coming months allowing inflation to moderate and sentiment to revert. With strong consumer demand, robust US household balance sheets and money on the sidelines, earnings can remain elevated, and US economic growth can remain positive.

Valuations have also become more compelling at current levels, with the S&P 500’s forward P/E now below its pre-pandemic levels. Undoubtedly multiples can contract further in the short-term if the geopolitical tensions worsen, but I believe a reversal is likely by year-end as the current headwinds subside.

Winners

The dating App Bumble jumped 28.5% last week as the firm's revenue figures grew 25.7% year-over-year.

Despite Bumble experiencing its strongest trading day ever, it still sits 70% below its IPO price. The current inflation-induced growth stock distain will ensure that a quick reversal to previous highs remains unlikely despite last week's success.

Losers

It appears that investors previously boasting the endless potential of every high-growth SaaS company in existence are now cutting all ties and denying any involvement, quickly reclaiming Warren Buffet as their one true leader.

DocuSign tops the bill this week as the poster child of the discarded pandemic darling. Already down 70% from all-time highs, the stock plummeted another 20% following Thursday's less than inspiring earnings call.

In keeping with the theme of the quarter, the company reported solid Q4 results, but weaker guidance sent the stock plummeting. Lower than expected revenue guidance and a predicted annual growth of only 13% for a company that is still pre-earnings brought the growth narrative very much into question.

Outlook

Lower valuation multiples are appealing, but investors are acutely aware of the dangers that lie ahead over the short term. Inflation has surged to a 7.9% annual rate, a number that looks likely to remain elevated as commodity prices rise, while upcoming interest rate hikes represent the potential for a policy misstep by the Fed.

Volatility is likely to remain, but some sectors will absorb the impact better than others. Short duration, long value remains the order of the day with a tilt towards energy, consumer staples and real estate.

To learn how to start your investing journey, go to the islandinvestor.com.

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Gleneagle Concert Band cast in major Hollywood Film

  Members of The Gleneagle Concert Band have been cast in a major Hollywood movie currently filming in West Cork. The WWII biopic is inspired by Hollywood legend James Stewart’s […]

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Members of The Gleneagle Concert Band have been cast in a major Hollywood movie currently filming in West Cork.

The WWII biopic is inspired by Hollywood legend James Stewart’s life, highlighting his time as a combat pilot after putting his entertainment career on hold to join the U.S. Army Air Corps.
It’s set to be the biggest film production filmed in Ireland this year, with a U.S. release scheduled for November 2026.

Band Musical Director Vincent Condon said the opportunity came about through a mix of curiosity and perfect timing.

“I read that a major film was being shot in West Cork and got in touch to see if they needed a band. Wartime movies often feature military bands, and they were delighted that I reached out. The film required an all-male band under 25, which is historically accurate. Filming took place at the start of October, and it was a fantastic experience for everyone involved.”

Band Manager Ciaran Lynch described the experience as unforgettable.

“The band was excellent. We did everything asked of us with no fuss, and it was amazing to see how a major movie comes together. In a year or so, we’ll be able to sit in the cinema with our families and point to the screen saying, ‘We were part of that!’”

This latest experience follows the band’s highly successful summer tour to Seville and Gibraltar, where they performed alongside the Midleton Concert Band beneath Seville’s spectacular Las Setas structure. The trip marked the band’s eighth international tour, continuing a proud tradition of representing Killarney abroad.

With opportunities ranging from international tours to movie sets, the Gleneagle Concert Band continues to give its members unique and creative musical experiences both at home and overseas.

Anyone interested in joining the band or enrolling for instrumental lessons is encouraged to get in touch on 087 222 9513.

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Local schools launch initiative to promote healthy technology use for children

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Holy Family NS Rathmore, Raheen NS, Meentogues NS and Shrone NS have teamed up with three other schools on the Cork side of the border to launch an innovative project called Agree to Agree.


This is a community wide effort to help families navigate the challenge of children and technology.


The initiative encourages parents of primary school pupils to make a voluntary pledge around healthy technology use at home.


For younger pupils, this includes keeping children smartphone-free, following age-appropriate guidelines for games and apps, and staying off social media during primary school years.


For older pupils who may already own phones / devices, the project suggests practical steps such as reducing screen time, keeping phones out of bedrooms, avoiding age-inappropriate apps, and learning about digital citizenship and online safety.


In the coming weeks, children will bring home information packs and families will have the chance to sign the voluntary agreement. Two parent webinars are already scheduled for October 26 and February 26.


This Pilot was funded by the Department of Education and Skills under the then Minister of Education and Skills – Norma Foley TD. Schools were invited to participate through Tralee Education Support Centre Director, Terry O’Sullivan.


The other participating schools are Ballydesmond NS, Kiskeam NS, and Knocknagree NS.

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