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Improve your decision-making process

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By Michael O’Connor, theislandinvestor.com

I am someone who wants to see all the information before making a decision.

This is a debilitating character flaw in a profession where every decision is based on limited information and unknowable future outcomes.

When I first started investing, I wanted all the answers before placing a trade. I wanted certainty. As a result, I missed out on countless opportunities.

Over the years, I have worked hard to overcome this. One of the first steps was accepting that investing is a game of probability, not certainty.

People say investing is like chess, but in chess, all information is known and there is a right and wrong way forward at any point. It's based on computation.

Investing is more like poker. Both are games of incomplete information. Your success over the long run will come down to your ability to make the best possible decisions based on the available information.

Flaws in our decision-making process

With this in mind, let’s focus on one of the most common flaws in our decision making process – resulting.
This refers to our tendency to use the outcome of a decision to determine whether or not we have made the right choice. But there are a number of issues with this.

Bad decisions have 'good' outcomes all the time. Imagine you're late for work and approaching a crossroads as the traffic light turns red. You decide to run the light. You get through just fine and make it to work on time.
Was that the right decision?
The outcome was favourable, but you risked potential death to shave two minutes off your commute. A questionable decision at best.

Reinforcing bad behaviour

Previously successful outcomes convince you that it is a good decision.
Sticking with the driving analogies. Imagine you decide to drive home after a few drinks. You get home just fine. So you do it again and again. The successful outcomes compound to the point where you convince yourself this is a perfectly safe thing to do. You become more and more reckless until, eventually, disaster strikes.

Just because the probability of a negative outcome (getting caught, crashing) is low doesn't mean the risk/reward payoff makes sense.

We see this in investing all the time. Traders make statistically questionable decisions that work out in their favour. The initial positive results reinforce the risk-taking behaviour until they eventually get blown up.
Bad decisions can play out in your favour for a long time, but eventually, the statistical probability will catch up with you.

The Element of luck

In poker, you can play a hand perfectly and still lose because there's this luck element to it. Most decisions in life work the same way.

Ignoring the impact of luck means we convince ourselves that we made the wrong decisions when in reality, the decision was correct; we were just unlucky, or vice versa.

Imagine you have a trick coin that is heavier on one side, so it comes up 'heads' 90% of the time. If you place a bet with someone and the coin comes up with 'tails', was that a bad bet? No, you were just 'unlucky'. Every decision is based on probability, but the probability won't always work in your favour.

A 90% chance you will win is still a 10% chance you will lose. Losing doesn't automatically make it a bad decision.

Focus on the process

When investing, we need to focus on the decision-making process, not the outcome. You want to select the options with the highest likelihood of a positive result. But even if you do this, you can still lose. Not every investment will be a winner.

But if you keep making well-thought-out decisions based on a process that is true to your criteria, these decisions will compound and work in your favour over time.

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Local crews prepare for Assess Ireland Rally of the Lakes

Killarney and District Motor Club members are out in force for this weekend’s Assess Ireland Rally of the Lakes, with several local names expected to challenge for top honours across […]

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Killarney and District Motor Club members are out in force for this weekend’s Assess Ireland Rally of the Lakes, with several local names expected to challenge for top honours across all categories.

At the head of the field, Muckross co-driver Noel O’Sullivan and driver Callum Devine are chasing an unprecedented fifth consecutive win in Killarney. The Skoda Fabia RS Rally2 crew leads the entry list and aims to reclaim the championship lead. Other local interest in the top ten includes Rockfield co-driver Shane Buckley, navigating for David Kelly, and Milltown co-driver Ger Conway, who joins Daniel Cronin in the hunt for a podium finish.
The modified section features a heavy local presence. Robert Duggan returns in his Ford Escort Mk2 for his first outing since October, setting up a highly anticipated battle with the returning Conor Murphy. Further down the order, Glenflesk-based crews Denis Hickey and Eoin O’Leary, along with Dave Slattery and Denis Coffey, return to their home international event.
Family ties remain central to the local entry list. Charlie Hickey is joined by his son Cathal, who makes his debut as a co-driver, while John and Michelle Hickey form a father-daughter team in their Mitsubishi E9. Pat and Tara Looney are also competing as a father-daughter duo in their Ford Escort.
Experience and new machinery are both on display this weekend. Noel O’Sullivan and Nicholas Burke represent the longest-serving crew with over 30 starts each. Meanwhile, Tadhg O’Sullivan and Kevin O’Donoghue bring high-powered machinery to Class 14.
David Randles will also be fighting for class honours in a Peugeot 208 R4.
In the Historic category, Fergus O’Meara faces a race against time to have his BMW M3 ready following an engine rebuild. He will compete against former winner Mark Falvey in a Ford Escort RS1600 and Paul Ahern in another BMW M3. The Junior rally features two Kerry crews, with Jaden Leane and Padraig Devane leading the charge in a Honda Civic, while Conor Horgan and Aaron O’Halloran compete in their second-ever rally

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Kerry tourism facing ‘uncertainty’ as global aviation crisis threatens visitor numbers

A Kerry TD has warned that the county’s economy is under threat as international aviation challenges and rising fuel costs begin to impact overseas visitor numbers. Speaking in the Dáil […]

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A Kerry TD has warned that the county’s economy is under threat as international aviation challenges and rising fuel costs begin to impact overseas visitor numbers.

Speaking in the Dáil this week, Deputy Michael Cahill (FF) told the Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment that “nervousness” is growing across the sector. He warned that global instability, particularly in the Middle East, is driving flight cuts and surcharges that could leave peripheral regions like Kerry “exposed.”

“Tourism in Kerry is the lifeblood of our local economy,” Deputy Cahill said. “From Killarney to Dingle, thousands of jobs depend on a stable flow of overseas visitors. That stability is now under threat.”

The Deputy highlighted that the Irish Tourism Industry Confederation (ITIC) has already signalled that earlier growth projections of 5% to 7% for this year are unlikely to be met. He noted that Lufthansa has already announced 20,000 flight cuts globally, while Aer Lingus has seen reductions.

Regional Vulnerability
Minister Peter Burke (FG) acknowledged the challenges, noting that 90% of Ireland’s inbound connectivity depends on air access. However, he pointed to a new tourism policy, A New Era for Irish Tourism, and a €400 million capital plan over the next five years designed to enhance the “value proposition” for visitors.

“We have had strong growth this year,” Minister Burke said, “but we recognise that geopolitical instability can have implications. We are working with airlines to ensure they don’t just consolidate routes.”

Calls for Kerry Airport expansion
Deputy Cahill argued that a “one-size-fits-all” approach would not work for the South West, noting that international visitors to Killarney and Kenmare cannot be fully replaced by domestic tourism.

He specifically urged the Minister to prioritise regional air access and called for the introduction of new flight routes to Kerry Airport from Belfast, Barcelona, and Amsterdam to offset potential losses from other markets.

“Kerry is a premium destination but also a peripheral one,” Cahill said. “If flights become more expensive, visitors often choose alternative destinations entirely. We need proactive measures to protect our regional airports.”

Minister Burke confirmed that new viability mechanisms and VAT supports will kick in on July 1, alongside “strategic air activation schemes” to market new flights as they become available. He committed to working with Kerry representatives to ensure the “Kingdom” benefits from the €400 million investment fund.

Michael Cahill TD with former Kerry Airport CEO John Mulhern

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