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Improve your decision-making process

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By Michael O’Connor, theislandinvestor.com

I am someone who wants to see all the information before making a decision.

This is a debilitating character flaw in a profession where every decision is based on limited information and unknowable future outcomes.

When I first started investing, I wanted all the answers before placing a trade. I wanted certainty. As a result, I missed out on countless opportunities.

Over the years, I have worked hard to overcome this. One of the first steps was accepting that investing is a game of probability, not certainty.

People say investing is like chess, but in chess, all information is known and there is a right and wrong way forward at any point. It's based on computation.

Investing is more like poker. Both are games of incomplete information. Your success over the long run will come down to your ability to make the best possible decisions based on the available information.

Flaws in our decision-making process

With this in mind, let’s focus on one of the most common flaws in our decision making process – resulting.
This refers to our tendency to use the outcome of a decision to determine whether or not we have made the right choice. But there are a number of issues with this.

Bad decisions have 'good' outcomes all the time. Imagine you're late for work and approaching a crossroads as the traffic light turns red. You decide to run the light. You get through just fine and make it to work on time.
Was that the right decision?
The outcome was favourable, but you risked potential death to shave two minutes off your commute. A questionable decision at best.

Reinforcing bad behaviour

Previously successful outcomes convince you that it is a good decision.
Sticking with the driving analogies. Imagine you decide to drive home after a few drinks. You get home just fine. So you do it again and again. The successful outcomes compound to the point where you convince yourself this is a perfectly safe thing to do. You become more and more reckless until, eventually, disaster strikes.

Just because the probability of a negative outcome (getting caught, crashing) is low doesn't mean the risk/reward payoff makes sense.

We see this in investing all the time. Traders make statistically questionable decisions that work out in their favour. The initial positive results reinforce the risk-taking behaviour until they eventually get blown up.
Bad decisions can play out in your favour for a long time, but eventually, the statistical probability will catch up with you.

The Element of luck

In poker, you can play a hand perfectly and still lose because there's this luck element to it. Most decisions in life work the same way.

Ignoring the impact of luck means we convince ourselves that we made the wrong decisions when in reality, the decision was correct; we were just unlucky, or vice versa.

Imagine you have a trick coin that is heavier on one side, so it comes up 'heads' 90% of the time. If you place a bet with someone and the coin comes up with 'tails', was that a bad bet? No, you were just 'unlucky'. Every decision is based on probability, but the probability won't always work in your favour.

A 90% chance you will win is still a 10% chance you will lose. Losing doesn't automatically make it a bad decision.

Focus on the process

When investing, we need to focus on the decision-making process, not the outcome. You want to select the options with the highest likelihood of a positive result. But even if you do this, you can still lose. Not every investment will be a winner.

But if you keep making well-thought-out decisions based on a process that is true to your criteria, these decisions will compound and work in your favour over time.

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Adventure runner completes all Dublin streets

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Adventure runner completes all Dublin streets


Killarney native Seanie Clifford has completed an extraordinary 25-day endurance challenge that saw him run all 4,400 named streets in Dublin while sleeping rough on the city’s pavements every night.



The local athlete completed his final stretch in the capital on Saturday, August 29, after covering a total distance of 2,000 kilometres. Running under the project banner 4400 Streets & Nowhere to Go, Clifford undertook the gruelling schedule to raise vital funds for Focus Ireland, Liberty Soup Run, and Dublin Homeless Awareness.

To mirror the reality faced by thousands of individuals across the country, the Killarney man spent 25 consecutive nights sleeping out on the very streets he ran during the day. Averaging close to 80 kilometres every 24 hours, he navigated heavy traffic, intense asphalt heat, and constant route adjustments alongside his partner and sole support crew member, Alicja.

Reflecting on the experience, Clifford praised the overwhelming backing he received from members of the public throughout the capital. He stated that he went into the challenge with extreme positivity and was rewarded with extraordinary kindness from people across Dublin, with residents from Ballymun to Donnybrook coming out to offer support.

Local support carries



By the midpoint of the challenge, physical exhaustion presented severe hurdles. However, local running clubs and individuals joined Clifford on various sections of the daily routes to assist his progress.

On Day 12, runners from Artane Beaumont Running Club and local supporters joined him on the road, allowing him to complete his daily 80-kilometre target ahead of schedule as community support carried him through the toughest miles.

The final stage of the run coincided with the release of official monthly figures from the Department of Housing, which recorded a record 17,527 people living in emergency accommodation across the country, including 5,659 children.

During the closing days of the project, Clifford was invited into Leinster House to meet with TDs and discuss the conditions he witnessed while sleeping on the streets. He stressed throughout the campaign that while his temporary homelessness would end with a return home to Kerry, thousands of families across Ireland remain without permanent shelter.


Triple Crown completed



Following his arrival at the final street, members of the national ultra-running community confirmed that Clifford had achieved what is widely regarded as the Triple Crown of Irish Endurance.

A former student of St Oliver’s Primary School and St Brendan’s College in Killarney, Clifford first set a national record in 2024 by running all 275 Irish mountains over 600 metres in 21 days. In 2025, he ran the entire 2,700-kilometre length of the Wild Atlantic Way from Malin Head to Kinsale in under 30 days.

Despite his previous mountain and coastal records, Clifford described the urban street challenge through Dublin as his most difficult undertaking to date.

Clifford, who now organises trail running retreats and uses endurance projects to highlight mental health and social issues, finished his final street run on Saturday afternoon to complete the historic trilogy of Irish endurance challenges.

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Kerry Stars volunteer appreciation night

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Kerry Stars volunteer appreciation night


Kerry Stars Special Olympics Sports Club hosted a volunteer appreciation night at the International Hotel on Monday, August 31, ahead of the upcoming sports season.


The event brought together both new and long-standing volunteers to celebrate their contribution to the club, which provides sporting opportunities for children and adults with intellectual disabilities across the region.
Run entirely by volunteers, the club relies on helpers who dedicate an hour each week from September through May. The gathering provided a chance to recognise their effort following a successful summer where four Kerry Stars athletes secured a haul of gold, silver, and bronze medals at the Special Olympics Ireland Summer Games in June.
The club caters to both competitive athletes and members who participate primarily for the social aspect and inclusion. With the new season resuming in mid-September, Kerry Stars is inviting new volunteers and athletes to join its weekly training schedule.
Weekly sessions take place at various local venues, including Monday athletics at Spa GAA from 6pm to 7pm, Wednesday basketball at Killarney Sports and Leisure Centre from 7pm to 8pm, and Thursday soccer at the same location from 7pm to 8pm. The club also runs therapeutic horse riding and swimming programs in Killarney and Tralee, both of which currently operate waiting lists.
Anyone interested in getting involved as a volunteer or athlete can contact the club directly at kerrystars63@gmail.com.

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