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Improve your decision-making process

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By Michael O’Connor, theislandinvestor.com

I am someone who wants to see all the information before making a decision.

This is a debilitating character flaw in a profession where every decision is based on limited information and unknowable future outcomes.

When I first started investing, I wanted all the answers before placing a trade. I wanted certainty. As a result, I missed out on countless opportunities.

Over the years, I have worked hard to overcome this. One of the first steps was accepting that investing is a game of probability, not certainty.

People say investing is like chess, but in chess, all information is known and there is a right and wrong way forward at any point. It's based on computation.

Investing is more like poker. Both are games of incomplete information. Your success over the long run will come down to your ability to make the best possible decisions based on the available information.

Flaws in our decision-making process

With this in mind, let’s focus on one of the most common flaws in our decision making process – resulting.
This refers to our tendency to use the outcome of a decision to determine whether or not we have made the right choice. But there are a number of issues with this.

Bad decisions have 'good' outcomes all the time. Imagine you're late for work and approaching a crossroads as the traffic light turns red. You decide to run the light. You get through just fine and make it to work on time.
Was that the right decision?
The outcome was favourable, but you risked potential death to shave two minutes off your commute. A questionable decision at best.

Reinforcing bad behaviour

Previously successful outcomes convince you that it is a good decision.
Sticking with the driving analogies. Imagine you decide to drive home after a few drinks. You get home just fine. So you do it again and again. The successful outcomes compound to the point where you convince yourself this is a perfectly safe thing to do. You become more and more reckless until, eventually, disaster strikes.

Just because the probability of a negative outcome (getting caught, crashing) is low doesn't mean the risk/reward payoff makes sense.

We see this in investing all the time. Traders make statistically questionable decisions that work out in their favour. The initial positive results reinforce the risk-taking behaviour until they eventually get blown up.
Bad decisions can play out in your favour for a long time, but eventually, the statistical probability will catch up with you.

The Element of luck

In poker, you can play a hand perfectly and still lose because there's this luck element to it. Most decisions in life work the same way.

Ignoring the impact of luck means we convince ourselves that we made the wrong decisions when in reality, the decision was correct; we were just unlucky, or vice versa.

Imagine you have a trick coin that is heavier on one side, so it comes up 'heads' 90% of the time. If you place a bet with someone and the coin comes up with 'tails', was that a bad bet? No, you were just 'unlucky'. Every decision is based on probability, but the probability won't always work in your favour.

A 90% chance you will win is still a 10% chance you will lose. Losing doesn't automatically make it a bad decision.

Focus on the process

When investing, we need to focus on the decision-making process, not the outcome. You want to select the options with the highest likelihood of a positive result. But even if you do this, you can still lose. Not every investment will be a winner.

But if you keep making well-thought-out decisions based on a process that is true to your criteria, these decisions will compound and work in your favour over time.

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New Sunday date for 30th anniversary Historic Rally

The Killarney Towers Hotel Killarney Historic Rally will move to a new Sunday date for its 30th anniversary running. The event is scheduled to take place on Sunday, November 29, […]

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The Killarney Towers Hotel Killarney Historic Rally will move to a new Sunday date for its 30th anniversary running.

The event is scheduled to take place on Sunday, November 29, marking the opening round of the 2027 Irish Tarmac Rally Championship Historic category.

Five-time World Rally Championship event winner Paul Nagle will spearhead the event as Clerk of the Course. The appointment carries personal significance, as Nagle is the son of the late Maurice Nagle, the original founder of the rally.

The first Killarney Historic Rally was organised by Maurice Nagle in December 1996, shortly after the international Rally of the Lakes moved to its permanent May Bank Holiday weekend slot. Having served on the organising committee for the old winter Rally of the Lakes, Maurice maintained that Killarney had the capacity to host a motorsport event during the winter period. Over the last three decades, it has grown into Ireland’s only dedicated event for historic rally machinery, where an overall victory is as coveted as a win at the international event in May. “Taking on the role of Clerk of the Course for the 30th anniversary is a massive honour, but more importantly, it is an opportunity to protect and build upon the legacy my father left behind,” said Paul Nagle. “He believed that Killarney’s classic stages were the perfect arena to showcase historic cars, and he fought hard to establish this. Reaching 30 years of Ireland’s only dedicated historic rally proves his vision was right. We are fully committed to making this anniversary edition a special event that honours his memory and celebrates the history of historic motorsport.”

Nagle has promised a return to the classic Killarney tarmac that defined the event’s early years, confirming that stages such as Ballaghbeama Pass and Caragh Lake will feature on the itinerary for the Killarney Towers Hotel Killarney Historic Rally. Since retiring from professional co-driving in 2023,

Nagle has worked as an FIA Safety Delegate on several World Rally Championship events. Work is now underway to secure a strong field of historic rally cars, with some star names expected to join the Irish Tarmac Rally Championship regulars on the entry list. His experience in event management, combined with his international contacts, is currently being used to attract an expanded entry list. A promotional push is underway to secure a large field of historic rally cars, including several drivers from overseas. The event retains the title sponsorship of the Killarney Towers Hotel and Leisure Centre, located on College Street in the centre of Killarney town. The hotel’s town centre location is highly favoured by rally fans who return each year, having proved to be a popular base since the hotel first took on the role in 2023.

Managing Director of the O’Donoghue Ring Collection and Killarney Towers Hotel and Leisure Centre, Gemma Ring commented: “We are incredibly proud to continue our partnership with the Killarney Historic Rally as we enter our fourth year as title sponsor. This year’s event is especially significant as the rally celebrates its 30th anniversary, a remarkable milestone for one of Ireland’s most iconic motorsport events.
At the O’Donoghue Ring Collection, we have always been passionate about supporting events that showcase the very best of Killarney. The Historic Rally brings together competitors, enthusiasts and visitors from across Ireland and beyond, creating a fantastic atmosphere throughout the town while making a valuable contribution to our local businesses and community.
Congratulations to Killarney and District Motor Club and everyone involved in reaching this incredible 30-year milestone. We look forward to welcoming participants and spectators once again and wish everyone a safe, enjoyable and memorable weekend.”

Full route details and regulations for the Killarney Towers Hotel Killarney Historic Rally will be released by the Killarney and District Motor Club in the coming months.

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Rathmore’s Tearmann Lodge raises €1,200 for Kerry Hospice

The staff and residents at Tearmann Lodge in Rathmore recently came together to raise €1,200 for the Kerry Hospice Foundation . The facility, which is run by the Kerry Parents […]

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The staff and residents at Tearmann Lodge in Rathmore recently came together to raise €1,200 for the Kerry Hospice Foundation

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The facility, which is run by the Kerry Parents & Friends Association, hosted a successful bingo evening and raffle in late March of this year. This follows a similar fundraising event held at the centre in 2024.
Residents at the lodge were encouraged to participate in the evening, which proved to be a highly positive and enjoyable experience for everyone involved.
Tearmann Lodge Manager Gillian Kenny facilitated the fundraiser, while staff member Irene O’Donoghue acted as the main organiser, with assistance from colleague Karen McCarthy and other members of the team.
The residential facility provides accommodation for nine residents, alongside an extra bedroom used for respite care when needed.
“Kerry Hospice would be close to the hearts of many here, both residents and staff, whose loved ones have benefitted from the services provided by the charity. We are delighted to be in a position to give something back in return,” Irene O’Donoghue said.
Pat Doolan of the Killarney Branch of Kerry Hospice expressed his gratitude to everyone at the centre during the official cheque presentation.
“This was another lovely gesture by all concerned and I want to thank them for their generosity. I spent some pleasant time over a cuppa with residents and staff members in the comfortable surroundings at Tearmann Lodge on the day of the cheque presentation. Esther Kelleher, who is a resident at the centre, entertained us with a lovely song,” Pat Doolan said

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