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Predicting the future

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By Michael O’Connor

I received some bad news over the last few weeks, and it has changed my perspective on a few things.

One thing I realised is that it's the things you never see coming that truly impact your life.

We spend our days worrying about the obvious risks, and then our lives are upended by an event we could never have predicted.

This is true across so many aspects of life.

Investing is no different.

Much of my day job is focused on what happens next.

Are we headed for a recession, will the stock market crash, and how much will property prices fall?
These are all pressing questions, but these attempts to predict the future can be soul-destroying when the future is so hard to predict.

History is an endless stream of reasonable predictions upended by unforeseeable surprises.

In 2001, as we focused on the debt crisis in Europe, two planes struck the Twin Towers. In less than 90 minutes, the world changed in a way that was simply impossible to predict.

In 2020, as we focused on the implications of Trade Wars, a virus shut down the global economy, and 20 million Americans lost their jobs in a single week.

And on and on.

Paying attention to the known unknowns is essential, but it’s risks that we don't see coming that truly define us.

No preparation, no protection, maximum destruction.

So, if the surprises are what really move the needle, why do we spend so much time trying to predict the future?

Simple put, it helps us worry less.

Building a vision of the future and convincing ourselves it will play out offers unrivalled piece of mind - a sense of control in an entirely uncontrollable world.

The warm cozy hug of certainty is hard to resist.

Despite the allure, however, we must ask ourselves; why obsess over predicting the exact path when the probability of us getting it exactly right is so low? Surely this is an obvious waste of time and resources?

So how can we better allocate resources?

Focus on the bigger picture

Instead of arguing over the minutiae, we need to focus on the bigger picture.

So many risks could play out over the short term.

Inflation runs higher, and interest rates pull down stock market returns.

The real estate market falters, creating economic ripple effects;

Energy shortages
A new COVID strain

The point is, there is always risk.

History is just one thing after another.

There is never a utopian state of calm, but over the long run, humans have prevailed.

In the face of wars, depressions and pandemics, people have become more productive.

We have continued to innovate and create products and companies that are more and more profitable over time.

This is the detail we often fail to see - the glimmer of light in a dark room.

Our ability to adapt and overcome over time is undisputed.

So, instead of trying to predict exactly what happens next, trust that we will prevail over time and focus on the larger trends.

What innovations will inspire the next generation of profitable companies? How will changing demographics change the world?

You will never get it 100% right but focusing on the stuff that really matters certainly improves your odds.

To learn what companies to invest in and to get direct access to my personal investment portfolio go to www.theislandinvestor.com.

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Paralympic legend Jason Smyth visits St Brendan’s

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Paralympic legend Jason Smyth visits St Brendan’s


World renowned Paralympian and world record holder Jason Smyth paid a visit to St Brendan’s College on Wednesday afternoon as part of a high profile visit to Killarney.


The six time Paralympic gold medallist spoke to second year students from St Brendan’s College, alongside students from neighbouring schools St Brigid’s Presentation Secondary School and Killarney Community College.
The interactive talk and interview took place ahead of World Sight Day, with the legendary sprinter sharing his personal journey with Stargardt disease, a genetic eye condition that left him legally blind at eight years old.
The Derry native, who holds the world record as the fastest Paralympian on earth over 100 metres, offered inspiring insights into overcoming physical adversity and achieving success at the highest level of world sport.
The school visit formed the opening leg of his Killarney schedule before he took centre stage later on Wednesday evening at The Killarney Plaza Hotel & Spa.
Smyth headlined An Evening with Paralympian Jason Smyth, an event organised by the Killarney Chamber of Tourism and Commerce as part of its winter schedule, sponsored by AIB.

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Deerpark Retail Park placed on market for fifteen million euro

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Deerpark Retail Park in Killarney has officially been placed on the market with a guide price in excess of 15.4 million euro, excluding VAT.

International real estate firm Cushman & Wakefield has been appointed as the sole sales agent to handle the high-profile commercial property sale on behalf of its current owner, Investcorp.

Investcorp, a global investment management firm headquartered in Bahrain, had previously acquired the prominent shopping complex.


The sale represents one of the largest commercial property offerings to launch in County Kerry this year.

Located roughly 1.3 kilometres west of Killarney town centre, the scheme enjoys strong regional connectivity and sits adjacent to independently owned operations including a Tesco Extra store, a Tesco petrol filling station, JYSK, and Aldi.


Constructed in 2006, the development extends across approximately 10,482 square metres, or 112,835 square feet.

The scheme comprises a mix of modern retail warehouse units and a complementary neighbourhood centre, offering 13 individual units in total with Part Open and Part Bulky Use planning permission.

The units range in size from 94.6 square metres up to 1,994.9 square metres. Visitors have access to approximately 248 customer parking spaces across the commercial grounds.

The park is currently 100 per cent occupied by a strong line-up of established national and international brands.

Key retail tenants include Marks & Spencer, Boots, DID Electrical, Maxi Zoo, and Mountain Warehouse.

The neighbourhood centre element accommodates service and convenience operators such as Costa Coffee, Card Factory, and Salon B.

The first-floor accommodation is fully let to Peak Performance Academy, which provides additional rental diversification.

Additionally, the scheme benefits from an agreement with Tesla to operate eight electric vehicle charging bays within the customer car park.


Commercial figures show that the property generates a total current rental income of 1,326,458 euro per annum, with a weighted average unexpired lease term of 4.45 years to break options and 6.46 years to lease expiry.

Cushman & Wakefield noted that the quoted guide price of 15.4 million euro reflects a net initial yield of 7.83 per cent, assuming standard purchaser costs of 9.96 per cent.

The selling agents highlighted that the fully occupied asset offers investors an attractive income profile alongside scope for additional income generation through parking commercialisation.

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