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My market predictions

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By Michael O’Connor

While recent inflationary data has been positive and pricing pressure has been on a downward trend, we are not out of the woods just yet.

As we move forward, the focus will likely shift from rising inflation to softening economic data and the negative effects this may have on company earnings.

For now, we are likely in the interlude between inflation peaking and economic data slowing significantly, somewhat of a momentary sweet spot.

Remember, there will always be risk. The particular risk that we are most preoccupied with just changes over time.

Market Outlook

I'm not bearish, but I do think that return expectations need to be modified.

We have just ended a period of unprecedented liquidity. Money was free. The Fed Funds Rate sat at 0.3%. The 10-year Treasury was 0.72%. The federal reserve doubled its balance sheet from $4.5 Billion to $9 Billion.

These were not normal conditions, and these conditions gave rise to unadulterated risk-taking.

The market is now resetting to more 'normal' conditions where the Fed is no longer willing to remove any and all downside risk.

Moving forward, the market recovery is more likely to be more U-shaped than V-shaped this time around. This simply means a recovery will take longer than we have recently experienced as the liquidity and support that fuelled previous reversals gets stripped out of the market.

That's not to say that upside doesn't exist. There is still an abundance of companies with the ability to generate consistently strong earnings over time. Still, the general upward trend of the market may be slower relative to what we have experienced in recent years. Liquidity pulled forward a lot of the expected returns, and that will take time to reset.

My Holdings

In my view, pullbacks in the stock market are still buyable. I recently topped up positions in Microsoft and Berkshire Hathaway, for example.

Other names I have been purchasing are less focused on pullbacks and more on the shift in secular trends in the market. An energy market that has experienced a complete lack of investment in infrastructure in the past decade, growing demand and no immediate substitute has created some powerful supply/demand dynamics for the likes of Exxon. Stranded asset risk exists but still represents a solid medium-term play and has worked well so far this year as other areas detract.

Finally, I will re-look at some decimated stocks over the coming weeks. Twilio is down +80% in recent months (currently trading at roughly $72 off a high of $435), but Q2 earnings beat expectations, and I do like the long-term viability of the company, so it's time to see if the current price represents a more digestible entry point. Bear in mind, momentum is still very much against this one, and lack of profitability will likely keep it out of favour over the short term.

For free weekly stock tips and direct access to my personal investment portfolio, go to www.theislandinvestor.com.

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Killarney hosts successful Irish Open Karate Championships

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Killarney hosts successful Irish Open Karate Championships


Over 200 competitors from across Ireland and Europe gathered in Killarney recently for the fifth Irish Open Karate Championships.


The event saw a strong turnout from County Kerry clubs, who competed alongside athletes from Cork, Waterford, Carlow, Roscommon, and Clare. International and cross-border participation included teams from Belfast and Derry, as well as a visiting delegation from Italy.
The Mayor of Killarney, Cllr Martin Grady, officially opened the championships. In his address, he welcomed the visitors to the town and praised the dedication of the competitors, referees, organisers, and sponsors involved in coordinating the high-profile event.
Throughout the day, spectators witnessed a high standard of skill and sportsmanship across various categories. The competition was overseen by a panel of experienced referees from Ireland, Northern Ireland, and Italy, ensuring international judging standards were met.

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St Brendan’s College: Voices from the Halls

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Interview conducted by Aodhagán Ó Súilleabháin, Cormac Flanagan, and Ryan Twomey.

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Name: Kieran O’Leary – Entrepreneur and Killarney businessman.
Year of Graduation: 2005

Occupation: I would be the Jack of all trades and the master of none. I am involved in the hospitality industry. I have Corkery’s Bar, Revive Café, Ruckus Café and I’m a part of Integrity gym, so I do a lot of coaching. The passion by me would be probably in the fitness industry, because I played at a high enough sporting level and that’s come to an end now so I’m kind of concentrating on the coaching early mornings, hospitality day and evening and I have a young family as well so that’s obviously the biggest priority of all.


Could you describe a typical day for you?
I wake up at 5.30 and I am in the Gym for 6am. I work with clients till 8.30 – 9:00am. I then have school drop off, check the stock in the cafes and open Corkery’s. I kind of float around all day, kind of just helping where I can, and then evening time is probably the most hectic, at home, the kids might have football, well the young fella has football, he does a bit of Jiu-Jitsu, and dinner, stop, start, repeat the following day. I work hard, when you’re self-employed it can be difficult, but I try to get down time on Sundays or maybe Wednesdays.

What drew you to St Brendan’s as a school?
It was the sports that kind of drew me. The past pupils that I would have known from the sports clubs and would have seen their careers progress. It’s renowned, the history behind the Sem is unbelievable. I wasn’t really going anywhere else. The history behind it, the stories that come out of it, the people that have progressed and done so well in life. I don’t mean success by wealth, they seem to be happy in their professional life, happy with their life decisions and I suppose the Sem has a huge part playing in that.


Would you have kept in contact with any teachers?
Even now you see older teachers that may be retired or are even still there, they still have a bit of time for you, and they’ll stand in the street and say how are you getting on? We live in a small town, where everyone knows kind of everyone’s business to such an extent, so I think just the camaraderie, friendships and like the great times we had, I’ll always remember that. 



Would you have kept in contact with your classmates?
The friends I made. They are lifelong friends. We were lucky enough to be a part of a good few sporting teams, and we would have progressed through the Kerry GAA side of things, and then there’s a lot of them working around here, a few of them abroad, but you’d have your core five or six fellas that you still stay in contact with. Outside of that if you saw past students of the school around the town, of course you’d stop and talk to them.


Were there any specific academic programmes or teaching methods at the school that helped you succeed in what you’re in today?
I didn’t apply myself the way I’d like to which is kind of a regret, but I did Business Studies with Joanna Ryan, she was a very good teacher. I went on to do business which I didn’t complete in IT Tralee, and funnily enough, then I got involved in the business side of things, so it’s funny how things work out. Just because you mightn’t do the best Leaving Cert doesn’t mean that you’re a failure, there’s always an opportunity around the corner and if you’re willing to apply yourself in any shape, way or form then you’ll succeed. It’s all about the mindset, discipline and as I said, my mindset was GAA, maybe even soccer related when I was that age, I could see nothing else, I was a bit blinkered, but as you broaden your horizons as you get a bit older, more mature you realise there’s different ways to go about your goals.




Can you share an example of how a teacher or staff member made a meaningful impact on your growth.
I’d say Seamus Grealy to be honest, because he is an excellent teacher. He was a soccer coach and he would have seen the potential in me and even though the application mightn’t have been there at times. He still persisted and gave me that chance to try and achieve the best possible grade I could within the Leaving Cert year.  I would have done honours English even though my mother and father were saying “What are you doing?, you know, because I hadn’t the work done or whatever. The fact that he gave me that kind of TLC. I needed, that kind of arm around the shoulder, to say, listen there’s more in you, try your best, and as you know he can be firm as well, I just found him pretty good to deal with. 

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