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Residential property inflation has accelerated in recent months

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By Ted Healy of DNG TED HEALY

According to the latest residential market review from leading property advisors DNG, house price inflation is now running at its highest level since 2017.

Prices are now 11.1% higher at a national level and are 11.3% higher in the South West than they were in June 2020, as a result of strong price inflation in the market during the first six months of 2021.

The DNG National Price Gauge, which tracks residential property price movements at a national level, excluding Dublin, shows that the average price of a home now stands at €233,582 up from €210,258 in June 2020. In the South West region the average price of a resale property now stands at €266,844 up from €239,671 in June 2020.

The report highlights the fact that in the year to December 2020 the annual rate of house price inflation was running at 1.4% nationally. However, strong demand, coupled with a scarcity of homes for sale in the market, has served to drive up residential property prices across the country in the first half of 2021. In the first six months of the year, an uptick in the rate of increase in house prices has been driven by the shortage of supply in the context of rising disposable income, elevated savings levels and demographic pressures.

At a national level, an analysis of the stock of homes currently for sale indicates that there are approximately 35% fewer homes listed for sale now, compared to the same time last year, and 45% fewer than at the same point in 2019.

The latest results of the DNG House Price and National Price Gauges show that residential property inflation has accelerated markedly in recent months, driven primarily by increased first time buyer demand on foot of record levels of mortgage approvals. Our analysis of purchasers during the second quarter shows that first time buyers continue to dominate the resale market accounting for 54% of purchases during the period. In addition, over two thirds (70%) of buyers rely on mortgage finance in order to complete their transaction.

The elevated level of demand in the current market is evident now because of the easing of the restrictions placed on the property sector and house hunters during the last lockdown. Buyers who had paused their property search during lockdown are now back in the market competing with those buyers with more recent loan approvals.

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How long can it last?

Equity Wobble US stock markets extended their recovery following a sharp sell-off at the start of the week. Mounting concerns over the spread of the Delta variant and its ability to interrupt a strong reopening and economic recovery resulted in the worst day for global stocks in some months on Monday. Since then, a string […]

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Equity Wobble

US stock markets extended their recovery following a sharp sell-off at the start of the week. Mounting concerns over the spread of the Delta variant and its ability to interrupt a strong reopening and economic recovery resulted in the worst day for global stocks in some months on Monday.

Since then, a string of upbeat earnings reports and some aggressive ‘buying the dip’ strategies revived market optimism.

Double Your Money

The S&P 500 has now doubled in value in just 15 months following the March 2020 Pullback: The second fastest double in history, second only to the 1932 reversal after the infamous 80%+ crash of the great depression.

It is worth noting that the cumulative earnings for companies within the S&P 500 is set to double over the same period.

The market hasn’t doubled for no reason despite what some market heretics proclaim.

A Closer Look

After a brief respite due to strong market rotation dynamics, the narrow breadth of the S&P 500 is back in focus. The S&P 500 is up 4% since June 3, but ~80% of that move can be attributed to just the largest five stocks. This concentration in returns is one to watch as narrowing breadth is a sign of internal weakness and can sometimes precede pullback periods.

Market Outlook

As we focus on the second half of the year, investors will undoubtedly be haunted by fleeting bouts of uncertainty. Echoes of ‘this surely can’t last forever’ screech louder and louder as markets continue to notch up all-time highs. This uncertainty and doubt is an inherent part of the human condition that even the most steadfast investor must grapple with.

Lately, market participants are constantly worrying about, well, everything. Their concerns range from inflation and the Delta variant to tech regulation and tensions with China. None of these fears are irrational, but they are part and parcel of any investment. While all these concerns could negatively impact markets over the near term, there is no reward without risk, and historically, it hasn’t paid to be a pessimist.

While the outlook is broadly positive, uncertainties remain, as mentioned above. Economic statistics have been consistently positive in recent times, but this positive news stream is now simply functioning to maintain the current levels of market exuberance.

As we advance, it won’t be enough to say that businesses are recovering, and earnings are increasing. The market will need to hear about a stable recovery and more robust future earnings to come. As a result, market participants will be far more sensitive to any negative news, fuelling the fragility and volatility in the most exposed sectors of the market.

My overarching view is that economic recovery will persist, and upside remains, fuelled by higher earnings, fiscal stimulus, and low interest rates. With that said, pullbacks and market rotations are likely, and any deviation away from this base case scenario will create a painful environment for those holding the most speculative names.

As always, caution and patience are the order of the day.

For investing tips, go to www.theislandinvestor.com.

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Property & Finance

Tips to manage your home in the heatwave

By Ted Healy of DNG TED HEALY Our recent spell of good weather is certainly welcome but it does lead to some practical problems in the home. With the mercury rising to 30 degrees in some areas and night time temperatures ‘dropping’ to only 19 degrees, we find ourselves doing everything in our power to try and […]

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By Ted Healy of DNG TED HEALY

Our recent spell of good weather is certainly welcome but it does lead to some practical problems in the home.

With the mercury rising to 30 degrees in some areas and night time temperatures ‘dropping’ to only 19 degrees, we find ourselves doing everything in our power to try and stay cool.

With weather advisory warnings in place for high temperatures, we have all found our homes are heating up!
While we are quite happy to fork out our well-earned Euro for that foreign trip to the sun to bake in the Mediterranean heat, we now find ourselves in the unusual position of the good weather visiting us for a change!

While it is easy to enjoy the sunshine from the swimming pool in Portugal or the beach in Spain it is a different story when walking into your hot house at home.

Unfortunately, the large majority of us don’t have the luxury of air-conditioned homes as much of the new building technologies we have experienced revolve around heating our homes. We now find ourselves looking for ways to cool them down!

While the natural reaction is to open the windows, it is recommended to keep windows, blinds and curtains closed as this will keep the hot air out. If opening them, make sure to do so at opposite ends of the house to create an airflow throughout.

To circulate cool air inside, fill up some bowls with water and ice and place them in different areas of the house – in front of a fan works best if you have one.

Another simple but effective option is to cook outside. Use the BBQ as the oven generates heat inside the house.

Trying to get to sleep at night can be particularly difficult in soaring temperatures. Here is a novel tip to help you catch those z’s; consider freezing your bedcovers before going to bed!

It may sound daft but give it a try; strip the sheets, place in a bag and pop them in the freezer. When it is time to hit the pillow, simply put them back on and they will be nice and cool!

Also, try taking a cold shower before bed.

Any halogen light bulbs in the house will also create additional heat, so consider replacing with LED lights.

Open the attic hatch to keep the house as ventilated as possible, allowing heat to escape through the roof.

And finally turn off any appliances, like the TV, when not in use. Electrical appliances can give off a surprising quantity of heat, particularly while charging.

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