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Price and value are not the same thing

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By Michael O’Connor

To understand markets, you first have to realise that 'Price' and 'Value' are not the same thing.

The major indexes continued to trade relatively flat in recent days. The vast majority of Stocks struggled to eke out gains as a lack of clear market catalysts kept institutional investors on the sidelines, while retail traders fuelled the ongoing meme stocks rally. As social media hype pushes the likes of AMC, GameStop and Bed Bath & Beyond 'to the moon,' the crypto market continues to trade in the opposite direction, with all major crypto names recording double-digit losses early in the week.

The short squeeze is back

Earlier this year, GameStop saw its share price run from $19 to $483 as the Reddit retail traders banded together to punish the wall street speculators. In recent weeks, the short squeeze is back in fashion. The new king of meme stocks is AMC Entertainment. Recently on the brink of bankruptcy, the movie theatre chain's stock is up more than 2,000% this year after another roller-coaster week.

While this phenomenon is hard to comprehend at times, in simple terms, the Internet has brought forth the age of virality, and the stock market is not immune.

Younger generations who grew up on the Internet are now having a significant impact on specific companies. Their risk tolerance seems to be much higher than previous generations, and their willingness to band together to support a viral trend knows no bounds.

While these short-term individual stock surges may not significantly impact markets over the longer term, the meme stock craze is here to stay as the gamification of investing becomes a powerful force in an era of social media dominance.

All this speculation raises a lot of questions from investors. Nervous onlookers wonder if markets are broken, worried about how such 'mindless risk' can undermine the validity of the market as the 'meme stock vigilantes' blatantly disregard traditional valuation metrics.

All this recent 'mispricing' has highlighted one of the most common investing misconceptions.

To understand markets, you first have to realise that 'Price' and 'Value' are not the same thing.

Value is driven by cash flows, growth and risk. Of course, you can disagree about what those cash flows look like or how they are calculated, but the fundamental drivers of value remain the same.

Price, on the other hand, is simple economics 101. Demand vs. Supply. What drives demand and supply is typically mood and momentum. As a result, stock prices do not have to make rational sense at any one moment in time as they are driven by a myriad of human emotions.

Mood and momentum

For me, the current market conditions are reflective of a pricing market being driven by mood and momentum. That isn't to say that this is necessarily a bad thing. Markets will always reflect human behaviour in some form, and sometimes this behaviour will be more pronounced as price and value push in different directions.

This recent price volatility doesn't mean you have to change to momentum and memes when selecting your next investment. While the FOMO can be unbearable at times. The truth is, the value factors of cash flows, growth and risk are what ultimately drive markets over the longer term.

For more investing insights visit www.theislandinvestor.com.

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Five questions to ask yourself before buying a stock

By Michael O’Connor, theislandinvestor.com When it comes to investing, nothing is certain. There are no perfect stocks to buy because there’s no way of predicting the future with 100% accuracy. […]

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By Michael O’Connor, theislandinvestor.com

When it comes to investing, nothing is certain.

There are no perfect stocks to buy because there’s no way of predicting the future with 100% accuracy.

The truth is, investing is hard, and building a portfolio of top stocks that beat the market is something that even financial professionals have trouble doing consistently.

For most people, investing in index funds is the perfect hands-off approach, providing broad exposure to the stock market at a very low fee. Even my own personal portfolio is made up of roughly 70% ETFs despite the fact I invest in the market for a living.

But I believe some stock picking is a good strategy for many hands-on people.

Taking a small portion of your overall portfolio and diligently selecting a small number of companies to invest in gives you an opportunity to learn about the investing process and fully understand the businesses you are investing in, which helps to build conviction in your positions.

From a psychological standpoint “collector’s instinct” kicks in, enabling people to participate and invest more money over time.

Lastly, for Irish investors, there are tax benefits to consider. If you invest in individual stocks, you are taxed at the CGT rate of 33%, and the first €1,270 of your gains are exempt from CGT each year. When investing in index funds or ETFs, you are taxed at the exit tax rate of 41% with no annual exemption.

For those interested in picking individual stocks, here are five questions you should ask yourself before investing in any company.

Do I understand the business?

Too many people invest in businesses they don’t understand because it ‘sounds good’. If you have no idea how the company works, you won’t have the conviction needed to hold onto the stock when an inevitable downturn comes.

Can the balance sheet withstand severe, temporary adversity?

This seems obvious, but so many people invest in companies without understanding how much money a company holds and who they owe money to. Economic cycles are guaranteed. You must ensure that the company has enough cash-on-hand to avoid becoming obsolete when activity slows.

Will the company benefit from long-term trends?

Make sure the company will remain relevant into the future. If the stock is cheap now, it may be cheap for a reason.

Is the company enjoying profitable growth?

Not growth at all costs, but a combination of sustainable growth and value. All this information can be found online at sites like stratosphere.io.

What are the risk factors?

Is the company trying something new and untested? If yes, who are its competitors and how successful are they? If other players are more established, this company may have a tough time breaking into the market.

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Benefit-In-Kind tax rules overturned for company cars

By John Healy of Healy Insurances Minister for Finance Michael McGrath has announced a temporary change for company-owned vehicles following a backlash from drivers whose Benefit-In-Kind (BIK) taxes increased substantially […]

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By John Healy of Healy Insurances

Minister for Finance Michael McGrath has announced a temporary change for company-owned vehicles following a backlash from drivers whose Benefit-In-Kind (BIK) taxes increased substantially in January.

While the move to a CO2 based Benefit-In-Kind system, which incentivises the use of Electric Vehicles and lower emission cars, a significant number of employees with vehicles in the typical emissions range experienced large increases in their income tax liabilities since the start of 2023.

To address the issue, the Finance Minister has introduced a relief of €10,000 to be applied to the Original Market Value (OMV) of cars in Category A-D in order to reduce the amount of Benefit-In-Kind payable (this is not applicable to cars in Category E).

In effect, this means that, for the purposes of calculating BIK liability, employers may reduce the OMV by €10,000. This treatment will also apply to all vans and electric vehicles. For electric vehicles, the OMV deduction of €10,000 will be in addition to the existing relief of €35,000 that is currently available for EVs, meaning that the total relief for 2023 will be €45,000.

The upper limit in the highest mileage band is amended by way of a 4,000km reduction, so that the highest mileage band is now entered into at 48,001km.

These temporary measures will be retrospectively applied from 1 January 2023 and will remain in place until 31 December 2023. It is proposed to introduce the measures at Committee Stage of the Finance Bill 2023.

From an insurance perspective, if a vehicle is owned by a company then the motor policy in place must be in the company name and have full business use cover known as Class 2 cover. It is customary that the policy is on an open driving basis, usually aged 25 to 70. The cost for a company owned car policy can be higher than privately owned vehicles.

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