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There will always be uncertainty

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There will always be a seemingly justifiable reason to sell, but history has shown that markets prevail.

Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497 – Warren Buffet

The truth is, the pending geopolitical events are impossible to predict with certainty. As always, the most practical form of defence against these events is diversification across multiple asset classes, market-cap sizes, regions and sectors.

With that said, it helps to analyse how similar past events have impacted markets.
While international conflict is tragic for all involved, it does not guarantee economic ruin. For example:

During the Korean War (1950 to 1953), US stocks fell at first, then recovered as normality resumed, rising roughly 15%.
During the Vietnam War (1965 to 1973), the stock market grew by 43% as industries in the US rebounded from the initial impact and began rebuilding.
In both Gulf Wars (1990 and 2003), the market fell 10% initially but had recovered within a year.

Market corrections are also nothing new. Remember, stock market losses are a regular occurrence.

Since 1950, the S&P 500 has had an average drawdown from peak-to-trough of 13.6% over a calendar year. And yet, markets have continued to grind higher over time.

Even during the S&P 500's nearly 11-year bull run from March 2009 to February 2020, the S&P 500 witnessed five corrections. The pullbacks were prompted by concerns about everything from interest rates to trade wars to a European debt crisis.

The volatility you get from stocks is the price you pay for the high returns they offer. It's not free.

MARKET MOVERS

Defence stocks, commodities, especially oil and precious metal such as Gold will likely move higher while growth and transport stocks are likely to be negatively impacted over the short-term.

For now, all eyes will be on oil movements. Russia’s outsized role as an oil and gas exporter makes this an area of extreme focus, given the inflationary impact that rising oil prices will have on the broader economy.

NEXT STEPS FOR INVESTORS

Through the clarity of hindsight, all past declines look like opportunities but saying "I'll be greedy when others are fearful" is easier said than done.

When the chips are down and war is looming, it's suddenly much harder to confidently swing for the fences.

Unfortunately, it is impossible to know precisely when this all ends, especially with Putin at the helm.

History has shown that military attacks typically result in initial sharp market drawdowns followed by a rebound - but attempting to pinpoint this reversal is a dangerous game.

From here, investors need to ensure they focus on their medium to long-term view. Concentrating on your individual investment goals and the earnings of the companies you hold will help strip out some of the uncertainty from the market.

To read my full market analysis, go to www.theislandinvestor.com.

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Roger and Brendan really into the SWING of things

A Killarney man who has been living in the US for over 30 years has maintained a very strong connection with his hometown through a novel golfing tournament which involves […]

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A Killarney man who has been living in the US for over 30 years has maintained a very strong connection with his hometown through a novel golfing tournament which involves a regular challenge against local players.

Roger O’Sullivan, originally from Loreto Road and a member of the Rainier Golf and Country Club in Seattle, has linked up with another Killarney man, Brendan Keogh of SWING Golf, on several occasions to bring a group of golfers from the Seattle club to play a number of Kerry and Irish courses.

They compete for the Cider Cup which is their own unique take on the Ryder Cup.

In 2010 Roger led a group of 18 golfers from the US to play in Ireland and they repeated the journey and the adventure again in 2012, 2014 and 2017.

They had another trip planned in 2020 but that was cancelled due to Covid but they returned again in 2022 and a group of 44 golfers were back in Killarney in recent weeks to test their skills on the Kerry courses and against local players.

“Since we first started doing this in 2010 we have had 102 different golfers travel from Seattle,” Roger explained.
“I met Brendan Keogh on one of my visits home and he travelled to Seattle, at my request, and organised sponsorship at my golf club.

“Since then our trips have been expertly organised by SWING Golf who book us preferential tee-times, set up the schedule and coordinate our bus drivers. We have never had an issue or anything to worry about. Being friendly with Maurice O’Donoghue, we have always stayed at Scott’s Hotel,” he added.

The US visitors take on local players when in Killarney and this year there was 100 golfers playing on the Killeen course on the first day of their visit.

“The support of the locals has been incredible and I wouldn’t do this without them,” said Roger.
“There have been numerous friendships made over the last 14 years. We have supported a local charity on every trip and for the last two it has been the palliative care unit at University Hospital Kerry. This year we raised €5,100,” he said.

A former student at St Brendan’s College, Roger’s parents were Tony and Juliette O’Sullivan and his father was the head chef in the Gleneagle Hotel for over 20 years before the family purchased Danesfort Lodge at Woodlawn Cross on the Muckross Road.

Roger has been married for 20 years to Amy from Tampa, Florida and they have one daughter, Gracie.
Brendan Keogh joined SWING in the early days of its operation as financial operations manager, working alongside the late Paddy O’Looney.

A member of Killarney Golf and Fishing Club for 40 years, he is the current CEO and he will have served 33 years next September.

SWING, the brainchild of former Kerry Group chief, Denis Brosnan, markets and promotes the premier golf clubs in the south west and also runs an incoming golf agency.

Records show that the company has booked over 350,000 rounds of golf in the south west alone but it also facilitates golfers wanting to play elsewhere in the country.

The company’s senior team of Brendan, Eileen O’Sullivan and Tommy Pierce have 60 years of experience bringing golfers to these shores.

Killarney has been a huge beneficiary as it is a base for most visiting golfers while on the Kerry part of their trip. The locals like seeing the high spending golfers arrive in April for a season than runs until mid October.
2024 is busy and it is also looking positive for 2025.

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Killarney Toastmasters Celebrates 20 Years

Killarney Toastmasters Celebrates 20 Years

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Over 30 members, past and present, gathered last Tuesday in The Dromhall Hotel to celebrate the 20th anniversary of the founding of Killarney Toastmasters club.

Several founder members were present including Frank O’Sullivan and Bernadette Noonan, who are still current members of the club.
Members embrace the core values of Toastmasters International which are “respect, integrity, service and excellence”.
This year Killarney Toastmasters welcomed eight new members of various nationalities, who have brought many talents with them to this international club.
Outgoing president Anthony Walsh said: “I am heartened by the progress of new members and, following the success of the current year, I am looking forward to a bright future for the club.”
Anthony passed the chain of office on to incoming President Ann Hannan, who is very excited about leading the club in the year that Toastmasters International celebrates its 100th Anniversary.

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