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There will always be uncertainty




There will always be a seemingly justifiable reason to sell, but history has shown that markets prevail.

Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497 – Warren Buffet

The truth is, the pending geopolitical events are impossible to predict with certainty. As always, the most practical form of defence against these events is diversification across multiple asset classes, market-cap sizes, regions and sectors.

With that said, it helps to analyse how similar past events have impacted markets.
While international conflict is tragic for all involved, it does not guarantee economic ruin. For example:

During the Korean War (1950 to 1953), US stocks fell at first, then recovered as normality resumed, rising roughly 15%.
During the Vietnam War (1965 to 1973), the stock market grew by 43% as industries in the US rebounded from the initial impact and began rebuilding.
In both Gulf Wars (1990 and 2003), the market fell 10% initially but had recovered within a year.

Market corrections are also nothing new. Remember, stock market losses are a regular occurrence.

Since 1950, the S&P 500 has had an average drawdown from peak-to-trough of 13.6% over a calendar year. And yet, markets have continued to grind higher over time.

Even during the S&P 500's nearly 11-year bull run from March 2009 to February 2020, the S&P 500 witnessed five corrections. The pullbacks were prompted by concerns about everything from interest rates to trade wars to a European debt crisis.

The volatility you get from stocks is the price you pay for the high returns they offer. It's not free.


Defence stocks, commodities, especially oil and precious metal such as Gold will likely move higher while growth and transport stocks are likely to be negatively impacted over the short-term.

For now, all eyes will be on oil movements. Russia’s outsized role as an oil and gas exporter makes this an area of extreme focus, given the inflationary impact that rising oil prices will have on the broader economy.


Through the clarity of hindsight, all past declines look like opportunities but saying "I'll be greedy when others are fearful" is easier said than done.

When the chips are down and war is looming, it's suddenly much harder to confidently swing for the fences.

Unfortunately, it is impossible to know precisely when this all ends, especially with Putin at the helm.

History has shown that military attacks typically result in initial sharp market drawdowns followed by a rebound - but attempting to pinpoint this reversal is a dangerous game.

From here, investors need to ensure they focus on their medium to long-term view. Concentrating on your individual investment goals and the earnings of the companies you hold will help strip out some of the uncertainty from the market.

To read my full market analysis, go to

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Maine Valley Golf Club raises €13,050



Maine Valley Members Golf Club hosted a Comfort for Chemo Golf Fundraiser in memory of Kathy Scannell. The fundraiser was a great success raising €13,050. Clonkeen Forestry Services sponsored the event, and a cheque  was presented to Mary Fitzgerald, Paul McCarthy and Mary Horgan on behalf of Comfort for Chemo.

Maine Valley Members Golf Club and Clonkeen Forestry services would like to thank all those who sponsored T-boxes, golf teams, and those who purchased tickets for the event. They would also like to thank Tom Barry from Killarney Printing for all the print works.


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Dóchas Drama Group’s series of short plays  is go!

The Dóchas Drama Group will run a series of short plays at the Muckross Schoolhouse from December 5 to 7. The group’s annual performance has been switched to the Muckross […]




The Dóchas Drama Group will run a series of short plays at the Muckross Schoolhouse from December 5 to 7.

The group’s annual performance has been switched to the Muckross venue as its traditional base – the ballroom in the Killarney Avenue Hotel is being refurbished.

“If you are fed up with the incessant rain and constant bad news. Do you need a break? Are tired of listening to advice about your Christmas cake recipe? There is a perfect solution,” said the group’s Liz Ryan.

“We will present six short plays and some of the questions you may ask yourself are: 

“Why is Jane suddenly so honest?

“What did happen on December 9. Will Tiffany be promoted? Will Mags eventually find love?

“Can lost love be re-kindled? What do grandparents get up to when they’re babysitting?

For answers to these questions and more, come along to Muckross Schoolhouse on December 5, 6 and 7.”


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