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The chronic undersupply of properties will continue into 2023

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By Ted Healy of DNG TED HEALY

Firstly, happy New Year to all our readers, it has been a great privilege for me to contribute here on property related matters every fortnight and I hope that it has proved insightful.

As we begin a new year it is always beneficial to look back before we look forward. The past 12 months in the property market have certainly been eventful. We experienced unprecedented activity post pandemic lockdowns with demand far exceeding supply in all areas. This saw strong prices being achieved in record time frames in the first half of 2022.

The latter half of the year saw dramatic changes in the world economy with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and rising energy costs, inflation and interest rates. Despite these dramatic events we have not experienced a significant hit to housing demand.

The myhome.ie Q4 Property report, published this week, shows that while asking price inflation may have dropped in Q4, just 3% of homes listed for sale in this period saw asking price reductions which demonstrates a resilience in the market. That said, this resilience will be tested in 2023. Current buyers in the market are now stretched to the largest extend in over a decade, with the average residential purchase now running at 7.7 times’ average wage.

The report shows that asking price inflation has continued to slow, the annual figure is now running at 6% nationally. It is important to note here that while price inflation has slowed, we are not talking about price falls but a slowdown in the level of price increases. The data shows that while there has been some cooling in demand and increased asking price reductions, trading has continued to be resilient with premiums still being paid over and above asking prices.

A very interesting feature of the report is that the average time to 'Sale Agreed' in Q4 was 2.7 months nationwide, which is indicative of a very tight housing market.

MORTGAGE APPROVALS

Average mortgage approvals were up 4.3% on the year. We expect 2023 will see a further slowdown in asking price inflation, although the imminent change in the Central Banks lending rules to allow for borrowings of four times income will provide the market with a boost.

The continuation of supports such as the First Home and Help To Buy Schemes will also help first time buyers in a market that still requires much more stock. While those stock levels are improving gradually on a national basis, they are still not running at levels required to satisfy demand.

On a local level, the Killarney property market has certainly proved resilient. The past 12 months has seen record prices achieved for varying property types, from three bedroom semi-detached houses to four/five bed detached family homes.

The chronic undersupply of properties to the market will continue in 2023 with demand far exceeding supply. The lack of availability of new homes is a cause of concern. Proposed changes to planning legislation may speed up the planning process but build cost inflation and rising interest rates may weigh on activity.

We expect to see continued demand for properties in the Killarney area from a host of purchasers from first time buyers, retirees, right sizing buyers, holiday home buyers and family home purchasers.

At DNG Ted Healy, we are currently looking for properties in the Killarney area to satisfy these house buyers. The end of 2022 saw us successfully close a large number of sales and we now seek stock for our 2023 purchasers.

If you are considering selling your property in 2023, please get in touch. We would be delighted to meet and speak to you to guide you through the process and advise you on how to best maximise the price of your property.

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Is it a good time to sell your property?

By Ted Healy of DNG TED HEALY Recently published property outlooks are suggesting single digit growth in prices this year. The MyHome.ie quarterly report found the market had held up […]

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By Ted Healy of DNG TED HEALY

Recently published property outlooks are suggesting single digit growth in prices this year.

The MyHome.ie quarterly report found the market had held up better than evidence had suggested in 2022. The number of vendors cutting asking prices remained at low levels, while many house prices were being settled above asking prices.

However, the report warned that the resilience of the housing marking is set to be tested this year. It found annual asking price inflation slowed to six percent nationwide, meaning the asking price for the average home in Ireland is now €330,000.

There were 15,000 available properties for sale on MyHome.ie in the fourth quarter of the year – an improvement on the same time last year but still below pre-pandemic levels.

Average time to sale agreed was 2.7 months nationwide which the report said is indicative of a very tight housing market.

The report said it expects to see 28,400 house completions in 2022, exceeding its previous forecast of 26,500 finished units.

The author of the report, Conall MacCoille, Chief Economist at stockbrokers Davy, said it appeared the market had held up better than evidence had suggested.

“The number of vendors cutting their asking prices is still at low levels. Also, transactions in Q4 were still being settled above asking prices, indicative of a tight market,” he said.

Recent months had seen worrying trends in the homebuilding sector, with housing starts slowing, and the construction PMI survey pointing to the flow of new development drying up.

“We still expect housing completions will pick up to 28,400 in 2022 and 27,000 in 2023. However, the outlook for 2024 is far more uncertain. The Government’s ambitious plans to expedite planning processes are welcome although, as ever, the proof will be in the pudding,” he added.

Locally, and unsurprisingly, the lack of supply of new and second-hand properties remains the dominant issue. There has been very little new construction due largely to the rising cost of construction, labour, materials and utilities which in turn is putting pressure on the second hand market.

This market proved particularly strong in 2022 with active bidding experienced on the majority of house sales and a large proportion of guide prices being generally exceeded.

The detached family home end of the market is particularly strong with increased competition for a limited number of available well located family homes.

So, what lies ahead and is it a good time to sell your property?

The answer is a tight market with scarcity of supply being a factor. If selling now you will benefit greatly from a lack of supply of available homes (therefore less competition) provided your property is marketed correctly of course!

For anyone considering placing their property on the market, contact DNG Ted Healy 064 6639000 killarney@dng.ie for genuine honest advice on how to achieve the best possible price for your home.

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Tourism VAT rate should be “continued indefinitely”

A Kerry Fianna Fáil Councillor believes the current 9% tourism VAT rate should be continued indefinitely despite “the allegation that some hotels were not passing on the saving to its […]

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A Kerry Fianna Fáil Councillor believes the current 9% tourism VAT rate should be continued indefinitely despite “the allegation that some hotels were not passing on the saving to its customers”.

The reduced VAT rate of 9% was introduced by the Government in response to the challenges posed by COVID-19 to the hospitality sector.

“I believe a return to a 13.5% Tourism VAT rate would be counterproductive at this stage, to small and medium businesses that welcome visitors to our country and our county,” Councillor Michael Cahill said.

“Catered food is already charged at 13.5%, alcohol at 23% and accommodation presently at 9%. This sector is providing pretty decent returns to the Exchequer and should be supported. All parties in this debate, including the Government and accommodation providers, should review their position and ensure their actions do not contribute to ‘killing the Goose that laid the Golden Egg’.”

He explained that the tourism industry is “in a very volatile market”, as can be seen by the enormous challenges “posed by COVID-19 in recent years”.

“A grain of rice could tip the balance either way and great care must be taken not to damage it irreparably. We are all aware that the next six to 12 months will be extremely difficult for many businesses with the increase in the cost of oil and gas, etc,, and a return to the 13.5% VAT rate will, in my opinion, close many doors. If a minority are ‘price gouging’, then it should be possible to penalise them and continue to support the majority who offer value for money to our visitors.”

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