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My market predictions

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By Michael O’Connor

While recent inflationary data has been positive and pricing pressure has been on a downward trend, we are not out of the woods just yet.

As we move forward, the focus will likely shift from rising inflation to softening economic data and the negative effects this may have on company earnings.

For now, we are likely in the interlude between inflation peaking and economic data slowing significantly, somewhat of a momentary sweet spot.

Remember, there will always be risk. The particular risk that we are most preoccupied with just changes over time.

Market Outlook

I'm not bearish, but I do think that return expectations need to be modified.

We have just ended a period of unprecedented liquidity. Money was free. The Fed Funds Rate sat at 0.3%. The 10-year Treasury was 0.72%. The federal reserve doubled its balance sheet from $4.5 Billion to $9 Billion.

These were not normal conditions, and these conditions gave rise to unadulterated risk-taking.

The market is now resetting to more 'normal' conditions where the Fed is no longer willing to remove any and all downside risk.

Moving forward, the market recovery is more likely to be more U-shaped than V-shaped this time around. This simply means a recovery will take longer than we have recently experienced as the liquidity and support that fuelled previous reversals gets stripped out of the market.

That's not to say that upside doesn't exist. There is still an abundance of companies with the ability to generate consistently strong earnings over time. Still, the general upward trend of the market may be slower relative to what we have experienced in recent years. Liquidity pulled forward a lot of the expected returns, and that will take time to reset.

My Holdings

In my view, pullbacks in the stock market are still buyable. I recently topped up positions in Microsoft and Berkshire Hathaway, for example.

Other names I have been purchasing are less focused on pullbacks and more on the shift in secular trends in the market. An energy market that has experienced a complete lack of investment in infrastructure in the past decade, growing demand and no immediate substitute has created some powerful supply/demand dynamics for the likes of Exxon. Stranded asset risk exists but still represents a solid medium-term play and has worked well so far this year as other areas detract.

Finally, I will re-look at some decimated stocks over the coming weeks. Twilio is down +80% in recent months (currently trading at roughly $72 off a high of $435), but Q2 earnings beat expectations, and I do like the long-term viability of the company, so it's time to see if the current price represents a more digestible entry point. Bear in mind, momentum is still very much against this one, and lack of profitability will likely keep it out of favour over the short term.

For free weekly stock tips and direct access to my personal investment portfolio, go to www.theislandinvestor.com.

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Gleneagle Concert Band cast in major Hollywood Film

  Members of The Gleneagle Concert Band have been cast in a major Hollywood movie currently filming in West Cork. The WWII biopic is inspired by Hollywood legend James Stewart’s […]

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Members of The Gleneagle Concert Band have been cast in a major Hollywood movie currently filming in West Cork.

The WWII biopic is inspired by Hollywood legend James Stewart’s life, highlighting his time as a combat pilot after putting his entertainment career on hold to join the U.S. Army Air Corps.
It’s set to be the biggest film production filmed in Ireland this year, with a U.S. release scheduled for November 2026.

Band Musical Director Vincent Condon said the opportunity came about through a mix of curiosity and perfect timing.

“I read that a major film was being shot in West Cork and got in touch to see if they needed a band. Wartime movies often feature military bands, and they were delighted that I reached out. The film required an all-male band under 25, which is historically accurate. Filming took place at the start of October, and it was a fantastic experience for everyone involved.”

Band Manager Ciaran Lynch described the experience as unforgettable.

“The band was excellent. We did everything asked of us with no fuss, and it was amazing to see how a major movie comes together. In a year or so, we’ll be able to sit in the cinema with our families and point to the screen saying, ‘We were part of that!’”

This latest experience follows the band’s highly successful summer tour to Seville and Gibraltar, where they performed alongside the Midleton Concert Band beneath Seville’s spectacular Las Setas structure. The trip marked the band’s eighth international tour, continuing a proud tradition of representing Killarney abroad.

With opportunities ranging from international tours to movie sets, the Gleneagle Concert Band continues to give its members unique and creative musical experiences both at home and overseas.

Anyone interested in joining the band or enrolling for instrumental lessons is encouraged to get in touch on 087 222 9513.

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Local schools launch initiative to promote healthy technology use for children

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Holy Family NS Rathmore, Raheen NS, Meentogues NS and Shrone NS have teamed up with three other schools on the Cork side of the border to launch an innovative project called Agree to Agree.


This is a community wide effort to help families navigate the challenge of children and technology.


The initiative encourages parents of primary school pupils to make a voluntary pledge around healthy technology use at home.


For younger pupils, this includes keeping children smartphone-free, following age-appropriate guidelines for games and apps, and staying off social media during primary school years.


For older pupils who may already own phones / devices, the project suggests practical steps such as reducing screen time, keeping phones out of bedrooms, avoiding age-inappropriate apps, and learning about digital citizenship and online safety.


In the coming weeks, children will bring home information packs and families will have the chance to sign the voluntary agreement. Two parent webinars are already scheduled for October 26 and February 26.


This Pilot was funded by the Department of Education and Skills under the then Minister of Education and Skills – Norma Foley TD. Schools were invited to participate through Tralee Education Support Centre Director, Terry O’Sullivan.


The other participating schools are Ballydesmond NS, Kiskeam NS, and Knocknagree NS.

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