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Housing will never be the same

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Last week I wrote about the pathetic investment options out there for Irish investors.

Despite high ongoing fees (mortgage, maintenance, insurance etc.) and the actual headache of being a landlord, it's easy to see why real estate functioned as the de facto investment portfolio for an entire generation.

Wealth creation was a rinse-and-repeat function where couples put money away until they had enough for the 'next house'. As a result, we have an economy where 70% of household wealth is tied up in real estate.

Driven by the profits it created, Ireland became obsessed with owning real estate.

But real estate as an investment won't be nearly as successful for our generation. (If you are able to get a house, that is)

All you have to do is look at the anecdotal evidence all around us to confirm this.

My parents bought the house they currently live in for 30k (pounds) 35 years ago. The house is now worth roughly 450k.

I typically despise these back-of-the-envelope calculations when It comes to property, given the endless variables and ongoing costs involved, but bear with me.

That's a gross return of 15 times the original value. Now there are upgrades, a change in currency and other adjustments to consider here, so for argument's sake, let's call it 10X.

To achieve the same level of growth over the next 35 years, you would be left paying 4,500,000 euros for what is a pretty modest house.

Sure, we will still see property prices increase over time, but the rate of growth won't be anywhere near as meaningful for one simple reason.

Interest rates.

Artificial Growth

Over the last 30 years, real economic growth has been stagnant, yet Ireland has experienced enviable nominal growth.

How did we manage it?

We created imaginary wealth.

We pushed interest rates lower and lower to stimulate economic growth.

And it worked.

After all, if you make 100k/year you can probably afford a 400k mortgage at 4%. At 2%, with the same 100k/year salary you can now take on 600k in debt.

So, were we getting richer, or was the debt just easier to afford?

Where do we go from here?

We have now squeezed interest rates as low as they can go.

The house price appreciation we have seen was justifiable because the mortgage rates on housing continued to fall in recent decades. This allowed people to take on more debt without severely impacting their ability to repay that debt.

If we go back to my parents, they were paying 14% on their mortgage. Mortgage rates are currently between 2 to 3%.

A relentless drop in interest rates gave way to higher and higher prices for houses, but interest rates are now on the floor.

The juice has been squeezed.

In fact, the trend has started to reverse, with rates expected to rise 1.5% in the first half of 2023

Be mindful that the same credit expansion cannot happen again.

How the next generation thinks about their investment options has to change.

Banks offering 0% returns for the use of your money and a housing ladder you can't get on are not your only two options.

If you need help creating your own investment portfolio, just reach out to me at mike@theislandinvestor or simply scan the QR code above.

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Tree of Light ceremony on Monday

The spectacular 100ft Tree of Light in Killarney, festooned with close on 3,000 lights and topped with a giant star, will again illuminate the town this Christmas with the official […]

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The spectacular 100ft Tree of Light in Killarney, festooned with close on 3,000 lights and topped with a giant star, will again illuminate the town this Christmas with the official switch-on date planned for Monday next, December 8.

The lighting up ceremony will take place after a community Mass in the adjacent St Mary’s Cathedral at 6.15pm and a short prayer service will mark the big switch-on.
The towering Tree of Light is a landmark giant Californian Redwood tree located just outside the main door of the Pugin-designed building.
The project is an collaboration between a sub-committee of Killarney Chamber of Tourism and Commerce and the Killarney parish and it creates a wonderful focal point in the town in the lead up to and during the festive season.
Killarney Parish Administrator, Fr Kieran O’Brien and Christmas in Killarney Chairman, Cllr Niall Kelleher extend a warm invitation to all community groups, schools, clubs and organisations, families and individuals to attend the special Mass next Monday evening or to visit the tree this Christmastime.
The feature star on the spectacular tree will take on an extra special meaning this year as it will be dedicated to the late Donal Grady, a long-serving local councillor and former Mayor of Killarney who worked diligently and passionately for the community.
Donal, who passed away in 2024, was a dedicated public representative who worked with great passion and a real sense of purpose on behalf of his loyal supporters.
Through his work as a long-serving chief fire officer in Killarney, he helped so many families at a time when they most needed assistance and reassurance and he brought a great sense of calm and responsibility to the position
The Tree of Light was first lit to mark the millennium year when it commemorated all those who lost their lives in the conflict in Northern Ireland and it was again illuminated in the mid-2000s to remember those who had been killed on Irish roads.
Since then the project is all about community and it celebrates the fact that Killarney is such a wonderful town to live in.
In the past, the star at the top of the tree has been dedicated to great community activists Johnny Hickey, Yvonne Quill, Paul Coghlan and Rena Kennelly.

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O’Donoghue planning National Rally Championship campaign

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Killarney’s Colin and Kieran O’Donoghue claimed victory in the Modified section of the Killarney Towers Hotel Killarney Historic Rally, delivering a controlled run in their Ford Escort Mk2 to secure Colin’s second win in the category and Kieran’s first.


At the finish ramp outside the Plaza Hotel on Saturday evening, Colin O’Donoghue confirmed he is considering a step into the Triton Showers Motorsport Ireland National Rally Championship next season.

He said he plans to travel to Mayo in March to see how the opening round suits before making a decision.

O’Donoghue set the fastest time on all nine stages to secure the win over second-placed Chris Armstrong/Conor Smith, also in a Ford Escort.


Third place went to Gary McPhillips and Conor Mohan, 17.9 seconds further back in their Escort.


The Modified section also featured the battle for the Carrick Cup, awarded in memory of Mike Gaine to the fastest Kenmare-based crew over Moll’s Gap.


This year it went to Tommy Randles/Darragh Lynch, who set the pace among the local contenders and finished 35th overall.

Randles, a long-serving club official, has hinted this could be one of his final competitive outings.


The best Kerry Motor Club crew was John Michael Kennelly / Dylan Harrington, who took fifth overall in the Modified division.

Dave Slattery / Denis Coffey continued their strong season with 13th overall (Class 6, 4th), while Hugh McQuaid and Rathmore school teacher Declan Casey placed 15th overall and sixth in Class 6.

Other locals included Seán Enright / Kevin Doherty who were Class 3 winners on the recent Thomond Rally and backed that up here with another steady finish in 26th.


Tadhg O’Sullivan /Frank Byrnes, Seán Hartnett/Kieran Doherty, Raymond O’Neill/Jason O’Connor, Cyril Wharton/Donal Falvey and Ray Stack/Gene Stack brought their Escorts home safely inside the top 40.

Gary Healy/Niall Myers, switching from a Civic to a Toyota Twin Cam 20V, took third in Class 5.


Paudie O’Callaghan/Daniel Murphy brought their Starlet home fourth in Class 4.


Noel O’Sullivan/Nicholas Burke, one of the few crews to have contested every Historic Rally since it began in 1996, finished 50th overall.


Killarney father-and-son team Tom and Mark O’Sullivan completed the demanding event in their Peugeot 205 GTi.

Representing Kerry Motor Club, Ken McKenna / PJ O’Dowd reached the finish in their Peugeot 205.

Kevin O’Donoghue / John McElhinney used Super Rally to return to the stages after mechanical trouble, as did Kenmare’s Shane McCarthy / Eamonn Creedon who were among several crews targeting future Carrick Cup success and completed their Honda EG6’s run under Super Rally as well.

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