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A handful of winners

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By Michael O’Connor, theislandinvestor.com

There seems to be a narrative in the market suggesting that stocks typically go up over time, and therefore, with a little homework 'my stock picks' will go up even more - but it isn't that simple.

This isn't a 50/50-coin toss.

The concentration of winners is more severe than you think.

The Russell 3000 Index has returned an average annualised return of 13% since 1980, but the disparity of returns that generate these profits is rarely focused on.

The vast majority of the positive returns over time can be attributed to just 7% of stocks - the 'mega winners'.

In a similar report studying the historical performance of the S&P 500, only 22% of the stocks in the S&P 500 outperformed the index from 2000 to 2020. Over that measurement period, the S&P 500 gained 322%, while the median stock rose by just 63%.

Put simply, the probability of picking a winner is lower than you think, but all is not lost. A couple of big winners are all you need.

A few good decisions

Warren Buffett - arguably the most successful investor in history, recently attributed his success to just 'a dozen truly good decisions'.

"Over the years, I have made many mistakes - our satisfactory results have been the product of about a dozen truly good decisions — that would be about one every five years. "

That's right, the best investor in history made one good decision every five years.

So how can someone who claims this be heralded as an investment guru?

Asymmetry

A stock can only drop by 100%, but there's no technical limit to how high a stock can go, so when you invest in some truly great companies, the handful of winners can more than offset the graveyard of losses you accumulate along the way.

Let's take one of Buffet's most notorious investments as an example;

Over a period of seven years ending in 1994, Buffett accumulated 400 million shares of Coca-Cola at a total cost of $1.3 billion. As of the end of 2022, that position was worth $25 billion. And let's not forget the $704 million in annual dividends.

For me, stocks like TTD and Nvidia have more than offset some very questionable investment decisions. (24-year-old me has a lot to answer for, but you live and learn, I guess).

Obviously, the goal is only to pick winners, but on the off-chance you can't perfectly predict the future, here's a good place to start:

1. Stop trying to jump on every opportunity. Focus on making a few good decisions and give them time to work in your favour.

2. Don't be fooled into thinking every investment will be a winner. You won't stick it out very long if you expect to be in the green 24/7. There will be guaranteed losses along the way, but over time, a handful of big winners is all you need.

To get my latest stock picks, sign up to my newsletter by scanning the QR code or go to www.theislandinvestor.com.

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Local photographer shortlisted in national astrophotography competition

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Local photographer shortlisted in national astrophotography competition


Killarney-based photographer Goran Loncar has been shortlisted in the 2026 Reach for the Stars astrophotography competition, and the public is being urged to cast their votes to support his entries.


The national competition is organised by the School of Cosmic Physics at the Dublin Institute for Advanced Studies (DIAS) in partnership with The Irish Times. It celebrates the best of night sky photography captured across Ireland over the past year.
Loncar secured two spots on the final shortlist with distinct night sky images. His first entry, titled Gap of Dunloe, captures a small local house positioned under the Orion constellation. His second shortlisted photograph, Earth-lit Crescent Moon, focuses on a crescent Moon, showing subtle, detailed features across its shadowed surface.
Members of the public can now vote for Loncar’s work in the Public Choice Award category. The full exhibition of shortlisted images is available to view online at www.reachforthestars.ie/exhibition, where people can browse the gallery before casting their ballot. Voting remains open until 5pm on July 13, with a strict limit of one vote per person.
Dr Eucharia Meehan, CEO and Registrar of DIAS, noted that the creative and technical standards of this year’s submissions have raised the benchmark for the competition once again.
Aside from the public vote, an expert judging panel including representatives from astronomy, science communication, and media will select overall winners in separate categories, with prizes including photographic equipment vouchers and publication. The winner of the Public Choice category will receive a €250 voucher for photographic equipment alongside passes to the three main sites of the Astronomical Observatories of Ireland.

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New committee elected at Killarney Active Retirement AGM

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Killarney Active Retirement Association (ARA) had a large turnout for its annual general meeting, which marked a significant changing of the guard for the local organisation.

A special presentation was made to Nancy Hegarty, who is stepping back after serving the organisation for 33 years.

Throughout more than three decades on the committee, she worked to support the group across various roles at national, regional, and local levels.

Patricia Keane also stepped down from her position after completing her term.

The group extended its best wishes to both women for the future, noting that their experience remains a valuable asset to the association.

A new committee was formally elected at the meeting to lead the group forward. Joan O’Sullivan takes over as Chairperson, joined by Teresa Commins as Secretary and Helen Foley as Treasurer, alongside seven committee members who will take on supporting roles.

The group is now on its summer break after another busy season. Killarney Active Retirement Group meets every Friday from September to June annually at the KDYS hall from 2pm to 4pm.

The weekly meetings feature guest speakers, exercises, training sessions, shows, day trips, holidays, and tea dances.

The association welcomes new members, both male and female, to come along, have a cup of tea or coffee, make new friends, and participate at whatever level they feel comfortable with when activities resume in September.

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