By Michael O’Connor
Inflation was already at its highest level in four decades before war broke out between two countries that are vital to the global supply chain.
This unrest has undoubtedly impacted any transient outlook for inflation over the short term, putting further pressure on the Fed to take immediate action to tackle inflation.
As hopes for a ceasefire fade and a war of attrition unfolds, these inflationary pressures look set to remain, increasing the likelihood of a policy misstep by the Fed.
While the probability of a recession has increased over Q1, the strength of the US household balance sheet and company profit margins make it difficult to be ultra-bearish.
If we do experience an economic contraction, it will occur in the face of the strongest job markets on record, the highest corporate earnings since the 1950s and the most robust consumer balance sheet in history.
Labour Market Strength
Despite the surge in unemployment following the pandemic, we are now essentially back to pre-pandemic unemployment levels.
More importantly, the pre-pandemic high for job openings in the US was 7.5 million. We're now sitting at more than 11 million job openings in the US.
US Unemployment Rate
US household net worth is now more than six times annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP), driven predominantly by rising asset prices, increased savings rates, federal support and wage growth. This household wealth can drive consumer demand and company profits into the future.
S&P 500 earnings per share jumped 35% in 2021, making it the most profitable year for American corporations since 1950.
In every quarter of 2021, US corporations' overall profit margin remained above 13%; a level reached during only one previous quarter in the past 70 years.
While ultra-forgiving 2020 comparison stats lend themselves well to record-breaking year-over-year stats in 2021, the point remains - US companies boast resilient profit margins supported by a robust US consumer.
Where to Invest
Volatility is likely to remain as we enter into Q1 earnings season.
Netflix has already shown how unforgiving the market can be. Two disappointing earnings reports have resulted in two consecutive 20% declines as this previous market darling becomes the poster child of growth stock volatility.
Similar growth names are likely to come under continued pressure over the short term as interest rates rise, so don't attempt to catch the falling knife just yet.
'A bird in hand is worth two in the bush' explains the waning allure of growth stocks quite nicely. Simply put, as inflation eats into the value of money, investors look to companies with cash flow heavy balance sheets already in place instead of those promising these cash flows in the future.
Again, short-term equity exposure should be aimed toward companies that can pass on rising prices to consumers without disrupting their net margins. This trend has played out across higher inflationary periods in the past, namely the 1940s and the 1970s.
The Final Word
The market will remain choppy as investors digest the Russia/Ukraine war, high inflation, and a hawkish Fed but economic growth and earnings trends remain healthy. And if inflation can moderate over the year, assisted by higher base rates, it may allow the Fed to take its foot off the gas.
For the full market outlook, visit theislandinvestor.com.
Wildflowers are not always simple to grow
By Debby Looney, gardening expert There is nothing quite like the low, humming sound of insects in the garden. I always find the different pitches of the buzzing fascinating, from […]
By Debby Looney, gardening expert
There is nothing quite like the low, humming sound of insects in the garden. I always find the different pitches of the buzzing fascinating, from the drone of a big, furry bumble bee to the high pitched whirring of hoverflies.
And wasps always seem to have a dangerous sound – it is unique to them, in any case. It is possible to help pollinators into your garden at almost any time of the year, solitary bees such as bumbles and leafcutter bees, will come out of hibernation on a sunny December day if there are some heather flowers nearby. tulips, hyacinths, crocus and snowdrops provide sustenance in early spring, along with shrubs such as hamamelis, daphne, viburnum and willow. In April, the small flowers of the field maple attract many insects, as do the large trumpet shaped flowers of rhododendrons and azaleas. Wildflowers are now beginning to bloom, and they are the subject of today’s column!
While it seems counterintuitive, wildflowers are not always simple to grow, especially as we mean ‘pretty meadow blooms’ as opposed to ‘weeds’! Creating an area for wildflowers takes some preparation. Most important is that it is a weed free area. Kill off any grass or weeds before sowing, either by using conventional weedkillers, or by laying down a sheet of black polythene or weed suppressant. Make sure any seeds which germinate are removed also, and that problematic plants such as rushes, are dug out. Most importantly, ensure all grass is gone, as wildflowers do not compete well against its vigorous growth. Rake the top layer of the soil loose to a fine tilth, and do not add fertiliser! Wildflowers will generally not do well in a rich soil. When your area is ready, decide which seeds are best for your spot. There is much to choose from, for example, single varieties such as ragged Robin, teasels and poppies, or mixtures. There are seed mixes for perennial meadows, ones which attract birds – these usually have a high volume of seed bearing flowers, mixes for bees, ladybirds or certain colour mixes. There are also soil specific mixes.
Sow your seeds thinly and evenly onto the prepared ground. I tend to cover with netting at this time of year, because, although it is the best time of year to sow, and there is a very high germination rate, birds are also a problem!
The only maintenance really is to keep an eye on slug damage – I scatter in a few pellets when I sow anything – and if there are very dense clumps of seedlings forming, thin them out. When the flowers have gone to seed in the autumn, just cut them to ground level, leave the cuttings a few days for the seeds to drop out, and rake the foliage up. If left to rot in situ, it will make the soil too fertile for a good display the following year.
I mention the use of slug pellets. To the best of my knowledge, the use of metaldehyde poison in slug pellets has been banned for a few years now, and pellets are made of ferric phosphate which is not harmful to pets or birds unless ingested in very large amounts. However, there are some ingredients used in slug pellets which may potentially cause damage to earthworms and other soil dwellers, so please, always use sparingly and where possible, not at all!
Routine and balance are crucial in the run up to exams
By Niamh Dwyer, Chairperson of the Kerry Branch of Guidance Counsellors As you approach the countdown to the beginning of the Junior and Leaving Cert Exams on June 8, it […]
By Niamh Dwyer, Chairperson of the Kerry Branch of Guidance Counsellors
As you approach the countdown to the beginning of the Junior and Leaving Cert Exams on June 8, it is very important to maintain a healthy balance so that you can pace yourself properly.
It can be tempting to try to pack in long hours of last minute study at this stage and become more focused on what you don’t know instead of what you do! Stress is a normal part of facing exams and in fact a certain amount of it is helpful to ensure that it mobilises you to perform well, but it is essential that you keep it, and the exams, in perspective. After many years of supporting students before, during and after exams, I know too well how overwhelming the experience can be so I urge you to do everything you can to look after your well-being at this stage.
Before the exams
Stick to a good routine with a healthy balance in terms of revision, rest, fresh air, sleep and diet. Don’t be tempted to work late at night as it is usually unproductive and impacts on your concentration the following day. Approach your last minute revision in a targeted way with the guidance you have been given by your teachers. Have a schedule with your exam dates/times highlighted hanging up where it is obvious and visible at home and take a photo to save on your phone.
During the exams
Set two alarms for the mornings of exams and allow lots of extra time. You will need to be in your assigned seat in the exam centre at least 30 minutes before the start of the exam on day one and 15 minutes before all other exams. Hydration is really important during the exams to help with concentration so make sure you have plenty of water. The first thing to do when you look at the paper is to read the instructions carefully, your teacher will have gone through these many times with you. Mark all the questions you are going to do and write out a quick time plan for yourself. Focus on exactly what you are being asked; the most common feedback from examiners is that students give a lot of irrelevant information so keep glancing back at the question to keep yourself on task to target the marks.
If you feel you are becoming really anxious in the exam hall, focus on controlling your breath to bring a sense of calm. Breathe in through your nose for two seconds, hold your breath for one second, and breathe out through your mouth for four seconds. Repeat for one minute.
After the exam
Try to avoid too much discussion after each paper, ‘post-mortems’ of the exams are rarely helpful and can add to stress levels so once each exam is done, take a break and then move on to preparing for the next one. I can tell you that regardless of what happens in each exam, you will have lots of options available to you and an interesting journey ahead.
Keep in mind that while the Leaving Cert is an important exam and big milestone, it will not define you for the rest of your life. Best of luck to the class of 2022!
Niamh Dwyer is a Guidance Counsellor in Scoil Phobail Sliabh Luachra, Rathmore, and Chairperson of the Kerry Branch of Guidance Counsellors. She is also a Career Consultant. For details see www.mycareerplan.ie or follow @mycareerplan on Facebook, Instagram or Twitter.
Wildflowers are not always simple to grow
By Debby Looney, gardening expert There is nothing quite like the low, humming sound of insects in the garden. I...
Routine and balance are crucial in the run up to exams
By Niamh Dwyer, Chairperson of the Kerry Branch of Guidance Counsellors As you approach the countdown to the beginning of...
KNOW YOUR RIGHTS: Drugs Payment Scheme
Q: What is the Drugs Payment Scheme? A: Under the Drugs Payment Scheme, you only have to pay a maximum...
Late Late date for Jessie Buckley
By Michelle Crean All round entertainer Jessie Buckley is set for a Late Late date with host Ryan Tubridy tomorrow...
Over €13m funding boost for Kerry health care services
By Michelle Crean Kerry healthcare services are set to receive a €13.11m boost in funding this year which will greatly...
Sport2 weeks ago
Despite all the attention, David Clifford remains totally at ease
News5 days ago
New cocktail bar ready to open on Main St
Sport3 days ago
‘What Louise said was bang on’ – Kerry ladies back Ní Mhuircheartaigh in facilities row
News2 weeks ago
Death of talented actor sends shock throughout Killarney and beyond