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A bird in hand is worth two in the bush

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By Michael O’Connor

Inflation was already at its highest level in four decades before war broke out between two countries that are vital to the global supply chain.

This unrest has undoubtedly impacted any transient outlook for inflation over the short term, putting further pressure on the Fed to take immediate action to tackle inflation.

As hopes for a ceasefire fade and a war of attrition unfolds, these inflationary pressures look set to remain, increasing the likelihood of a policy misstep by the Fed.

While the probability of a recession has increased over Q1, the strength of the US household balance sheet and company profit margins make it difficult to be ultra-bearish.

If we do experience an economic contraction, it will occur in the face of the strongest job markets on record, the highest corporate earnings since the 1950s and the most robust consumer balance sheet in history.

Labour Market Strength

Despite the surge in unemployment following the pandemic, we are now essentially back to pre-pandemic unemployment levels.

More importantly, the pre-pandemic high for job openings in the US was 7.5 million. We're now sitting at more than 11 million job openings in the US.

US Unemployment Rate

US household net worth is now more than six times annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP), driven predominantly by rising asset prices, increased savings rates, federal support and wage growth. This household wealth can drive consumer demand and company profits into the future.

Corporate Earnings

S&P 500 earnings per share jumped 35% in 2021, making it the most profitable year for American corporations since 1950.

In every quarter of 2021, US corporations' overall profit margin remained above 13%; a level reached during only one previous quarter in the past 70 years.

While ultra-forgiving 2020 comparison stats lend themselves well to record-breaking year-over-year stats in 2021, the point remains - US companies boast resilient profit margins supported by a robust US consumer.

Where to Invest

Volatility is likely to remain as we enter into Q1 earnings season.

Netflix has already shown how unforgiving the market can be. Two disappointing earnings reports have resulted in two consecutive 20% declines as this previous market darling becomes the poster child of growth stock volatility.

Similar growth names are likely to come under continued pressure over the short term as interest rates rise, so don't attempt to catch the falling knife just yet.

'A bird in hand is worth two in the bush' explains the waning allure of growth stocks quite nicely. Simply put, as inflation eats into the value of money, investors look to companies with cash flow heavy balance sheets already in place instead of those promising these cash flows in the future.

Again, short-term equity exposure should be aimed toward companies that can pass on rising prices to consumers without disrupting their net margins. This trend has played out across higher inflationary periods in the past, namely the 1940s and the 1970s.

The Final Word

The market will remain choppy as investors digest the Russia/Ukraine war, high inflation, and a hawkish Fed but economic growth and earnings trends remain healthy. And if inflation can moderate over the year, assisted by higher base rates, it may allow the Fed to take its foot off the gas.

For the full market outlook, visit theislandinvestor.com.

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Milltown history republished for 40th anniversary

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Milltown history republished for 40th anniversary


The first publication to explore the history of Milltown is being republished to mark the 40th anniversary of its author’s passing.


“Milltown: Memories of Other Days” was originally written and published by local historian, auctioneer, librarian, and photographer Denis ‘Denny’ Sugrue, who died in 1986. Having been out of print for many years, the book is being brought back to life by the Milltown History and Heritage Society.
The updated and expanded 132-page edition will be launched at the old Milltown Community Hall on Saturday, August 22, at 8.00pm to coincide with National Heritage Week.
Edited by Dr John Knightly and Dr Owen O’Shea, the 40th-anniversary volume features the original text alongside new and colourised photos from Sugrue’s vast personal archive. It also includes a foreword from Sugrue’s daughter Maria and grandson Paul, as well as a curated selection of his “Milltown Notes,” a weekly column he penned for The Kerryman newspaper for nearly four decades.
“Denis Sugrue was a pioneering author and historian who had the foresight to commit much of the rich history of Milltown to paper in the 1980s,” said co-editor Owen O’Shea. “It is a unique and remarkable social history of a Kerry village in the early and middle twentieth century which we are so pleased to bring to a new audience.”
O’Shea added that the launch event will feature a display of Sugrue’s newspaper notes alongside an evening of local music, song, and storytelling to celebrate his legacy.
Supported by Kerry County Council under the Community Support Fund 2026, the launch event is open to all, with copies of the book available for purchase on the night. For further information, email milltownhistoryheritage@gmail.com.

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Resident raises concerns over loss of evening hobby courses

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Resident raises concerns over loss of evening hobby courses


A concerned local resident has voiced frustration over the apparent decline of evening leisure and hobby classes in Killarney during the autumn and winter months, calling for action to bring accessible adult learning back to the town.


The resident, who moved to Killarney decades ago, recalled years spent admiring advertisements for evening courses in gardening, beekeeping, DIY, sewing, Spanish, Pilates, and yoga. After waiting until work and family commitments eased to finally take up a local class, they discovered a distinct lack of local options available last year.
“I eyed the list enviously thinking that someday I’d have the time to attend these classes, to learn a few things and to meet other people with similar interests,” the resident wrote. “I could see that these hobby and leisure classes were reasonably priced and available in a central part of Killarney in an establishment that was accessible to people with disabilities. Hence, they were affordable, accessible, and ideal for anyone, irrespective of age or financial circumstances.”
The resident noted that while neighbouring towns across Kerry continue to host regular evening enrolments, Killarney locals are increasingly forced to travel elsewhere. A friend of the resident was recently obliged to commute weekly to another Kerry town simply to attend a basic DIY course.
The letter highlights the wider social benefits of adult education, pointing out that local classes play a vital role in tackling loneliness and fostering community connections.
“Killarney is a town with a can-do attitude, so these things should be possible,” the resident added. “We are constantly hearing that connection is an essential part of health and wellbeing, yet so many people are being excluded due to a lack of availability and affordability. We are frequently told about the benefits of lifelong learning, and for many people, that can be something light, fun, and most importantly, local.”

Running a class in Killarney? Let us know!


Are you hosting or planning an autumn or winter night class in the Killarney area? Whether it is art, languages, fitness, crafts, or practical skills, the Killarney Advertiser wants to help connect you with local residents who are eager to learn and meet new people.
Send details of your upcoming evening course, workshop, or hobby group to info@killarneyadvertiser.ie so we can help spread the word across the community.
Volunteer and community events will be promoted free of charge and the promotion of commercial events will command a fee.

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