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2023 Market Predictions

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By Michael O’Connor, theislandinvestor.com

For me, investing is just a potent mix of optimism and paranoia - being optimistic about what the future holds but constantly paranoid about the landmines that you will undoubtedly trigger along the way.

Finding a balance between the two is key, but I have to admit, going into 2023, paranoia appears to have the upper hand.

Expectation vs Reality

Whether you are waiting on test results, or tentatively hovering over the phone for that all important call back from your potential new employer, it's the difference between expectation and reality that dictates the severity of your reaction.

Regardless of how bad the reality turns out to be, if your initial expectations were set apocalyptically low, your reaction will probably be positive and vice versa.

Financial markets work the same way. As I have said before, investing is never about things being objectively good or bad. The narrative is always based around better or worse. If the outlook for markets is exceptionally high and the performance falls even slightly below these expectations, prices will fall as a result. The fact that performance and growth is still strong in absolute terms is irrelevant if expectation were not met. With this in mind, in order to understand how markets will react in 2023, we must first analyse the market's expectations.

The Year Ahead

On the equity side, 12-month forward earnings projections for the S&P 500 are set at 5%. In other words, analysts predict American companies will grow their profits by 5% next year.

While this represents a significant slowdown in growth relative to what we have experienced since the pandemic pullback in early 2020, I view this as optimistic, given the considerable change in monetary and fiscal policy in 2022.

Q3 2022 earnings season looks likely to finish at 2% year-over-year growth, the weakest since the height of the pandemic. Ex-energy, performance becomes weaker still.

Looking ahead to Q4 2022, analysts are now predicting the first negative quarter since 2020, with profit growth falling to -2%. These Q4 earnings predications from the same analysts were as high as +9% as recently as June.

While expectations for ‘23 are still at plus 5% earnings growth, I wouldn’t be surprised to see 2023 earnings forecasts suffer the same faith as the Q4 2022 forecast.

In short, markets are a bit like the Irish weather, never believe the forecast.

As leading indicators continue to point towards a slowdown in economic activity, a base case of positive 2023 earnings growth becomes difficult to justify. In my view, this will result in some negative earnings surprises in the second half of 2023.

In Fixed Income markets, the Fed has reiterated its plan to hold rates higher for longer, and this expectation is reflected in markets. According to the market-implied Fed Funds Rate, investors are now expecting US short term interest rates to peak at 4.9% in six months and remain well above 4% into 2024.

In my view, the probability of the Fed maintaining a long pause as we enter more economically uncertain times is not as high as the market is predicting. I believe a pivot is likely before 2024 as earnings and labour markets weaken.

Summary

While the lows for multiples may already be in, a mild earnings recession in the second half of 2023 may result in a slow grind lower for the stock market.

This pullback in earnings and labour will prompt a pivot from the Fed, forcing them to cut rates in an attempt to avoid the re-emergence of the disinflationary forces that provoked a decade of QE through the 2010s.

While it is impossible to know the exogenous shocks that lie ahead, buying up short-term Treasuries and maintaining a tilt toward value-based equity will protect if the current economic slowdown persists.

For more tips on how to beat the market in 2023, simply go to www.theislandinvestor.com.

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Missing Killarney chef located dead in UK

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Missing Killarney chef located dead in UK


A 34-year search for missing former Killarney chef Patrick (Patsy) O’Sullivan ended following confirmation that he was located deceased in the UK.


Patsy was 35 years old when last seen by relatives in Lombardstown, County Cork, during the Easter Bank Holiday weekend in April 1992. At the time of his disappearance, he was working as a chef in Waterville, having previously worked across several Killarney hotels. He was scheduled to attend a family Christening shortly after returning from Kerry, but never arrived.
Despite decades of public appeals, including features on RTÉ’s Crimecall, his location remained unknown.
Investigations revealed that Patsy moved to the UK and changed his name to Patrick Aldridge in 1995, adopting the surname of his partner who passed away in 2022. He passed away from natural causes on July 5, 2024, living just over an hour away from his brother who also passed away in the UK last year.
Speaking on Cork’s 96FM, his brother Jerry O’Sullivan confirmed the family finally received closure following renewed efforts led by Garda PJ Roche and investigating officers. He noted that while unanswered questions remain about why Patsy started over fresh, the family is grateful for the work that brought final answers.
An Garda Síochána confirmed the missing person case is closed and thanked the public for their assistance over the years.


IN MEMORY: Patrick (Patsy) O’Sullivan, a native of North Cork who worked as a chef in Killarney and Waterville, went missing in April 1992 and was located deceased in the UK. Photo: Garda Press Office.

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Speed cameras go live at Farranfore level crossing

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Speed cameras go live at Farranfore level crossing

An Garda Síochána, Iarnród Éireann, Transport Infrastructure Ireland, and Kerry County Council put new safety enforcement cameras into operation at the Farranfore level crossing this week.

The GoSafe system, which went live at 12pm on Tuesday, October 6, automatically detects vehicles running red lights or breaking the speed limit as they approach and cross the railway track.

Farranfore is only the second level crossing on the national rail network to feature the technology, following a trial at Merrion Gates in Dublin where driver compliance reached 99.7 per cent. Up to six crossing locations nationwide are slated to receive the units.

The system targets two distinct traffic violations. Proceeding past a stop line when red lights are flashing carries an automated Fixed Charge Notice of €80 and two penalty points, rising to five penalty points upon court conviction. Speeding violations trigger a €160 fine and three penalty points, which can increase to five points and fines up to €1,000 if prosecuted in court.

Iarnród Éireann highlighted excessive approach speed as a key safety factor at the Farranfore junction. Nationwide, 31 incidents involving vehicles or bicycles colliding with automated level crossing gates have occurred in 2026 to date, up from 23 in 2025.

Highlighting the risk to local road users, Road Safety Officer with Kerry County Council Declan Keogh said: : “The new safety cameras at Farranfore railway crossing serve as a dual-safety mechanism, for road users and for rail users and operators. I would urge all motorists to think twice before taking that chance to get across the railway line when the warning lights have activated and the barriers are lowering. All too often those chances have proved unsuccessful, with serious consequences.”

Iarnród Éireann Chief Executive Mary Considine noted that interfaces between road and rail traffic represent one of the primary safety risks on the network, adding that automated cameras encourage drivers to reduce speed and obey active signals.

Assistant Commissioner Ferry of the Garda National Roads Policing Bureau welcomed the joint venture, stating that technology-led enforcement will significantly assist in maintaining safety across shared transport networks.

50km/h zone enforced at Farranfore

Motorists traveling through Farranfore are reminded that the speed limit on the approach to and across the railway crossing is strictly 50km/h.

While automated safety systems enforce both signal compliance and vehicle speed, the 50km/h limit remains the maximum legal speed on the N22 section approaching the crossing gates.

The newly activated GoSafe cameras record vehicle speeds automatically in both directions. Any motorist detected exceeding the 50km/h threshold will automatically receive a €160 Fixed Charge Notice alongside three penalty points applied to their driving licence.

Local authorities and Gardaí advise drivers approaching Farranfore from both the Tralee and Killarney directions to adjust their driving speed early, monitor active signals, and prepare to stop safely when warning lights activate.

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