by Adam Moynihan

It appears as though the four-week layoff has done little to dent the confidence of the green and gold faithful. An informal poll carried out on Twitter revealed that 88.9% of my followers are expecting Kerry to beat Mayo in the All-Ireland quarter-final. Over half of the 323 respondents think the margin of victory will be four points or more.

The team’s league form was certainly encouraging and they did all that was asked of them in Munster, so perhaps it is only natural that fans are anticipating another victory and safe passage to a semi-final against Dublin.

There must be some niggling doubts, however, even if they appear to be buried deep in the back of supporters’ minds at this particular moment in time.

Here are some reasons to be optimistic, followed by some factors that should make us wary of what might come to pass on Jones’ Road on Sunday afternoon.

REASONS TO BE CHEERFUL

1. Form. Taking into account league and championship (and pre-season too if you want to go back that far) Kerry have been the best and most consistent team in Ireland so far this year. They won three out of three in the McGrath Cup, six out of eight in the league and two out of two in Munster, all while playing a decent brand of football. The only game they lost was irrelevant from their perspective – and it came against the All-Ireland champions who were fighting for their Division 1 status.

Crucially, key players like Gavin White, Paudie Clifford, Seán O’Shea and David Clifford have all been moving well. In the forwards, Stephen O'Brien and Paul Geaney are also back at it, and Adrian Spillane has given the team an edge. When it comes to each side's forward divisions, there's no denying that Kerry hold most of the aces.

2. The League Final. Kerry’s last meeting against this opponent was a totally one-sided demolition job. Jack O’Connor’s side defeated Mayo by 3-19 to 0-13 in April’s league final at Croke Park with Man of the Match David Clifford scoring 1-6 (1-5 from play). In March, Kerry also beat Mayo in the league in Tralee (1-12 to 0-14).

3. The Defence. After being the butt of the joke for a number of years, Kerry’s defence seems to have made significant improvements in 2022. Jason Foley has been excellent at full back while Tadhg Morley has made the No. 6 jersey his own. Add to that the speed and guile of Tom O’Sullivan, Brian Ó Beaglaoich, Gavin White and Graham O’Sullivan and you have a pretty settled and assured back six. Goalkeeper Shane Ryan has also impressed of late.

4. The Jack Factor. Jack O’Connor has ticked all the right boxes so far in his third spell as Kerry manager; you would be hard-pressed to find very many sticks to beat him with at this juncture. Up to this point, it appears as though the players have responded very well to his reappointment. The shrewd Dromid man has them playing with confidence.

5. Cliffy is Back. This one speaks for itself.

REASONS TO BE FEARFUL

1. The Layoff. The last thing any intercounty squad wants is a month of inactivity in the middle of the season but that’s exactly what Kerry have had to deal with. It’s farcical really, and there’s absolutely no question that it puts them at a disadvantage heading into this match. Mayo have played two challenging games in recent weeks while Kerry have been left playing amongst themselves.

2. Kerry are Untested. As commanding as Kerry were in Munster, the games were virtually meaningless. If the competition was properly run, they wouldn’t be playing against the likes of Cork or Limerick at all, such is the gulf in talent that currently exists between the teams. Ulster folk can quibble all they want about Kerry’s easy route to the All-Ireland series but the reality is that there’s no substitute for tough, testing championship action. Kerry have sampled none of that in 2022.

3. Croke Park Record. Croke Park is traditionally considered a home away from home for the Kerry footballers but their recent record at HQ leaves plenty to be desired. They have won just twice in their last 10 visits to the capital and their last championship result there – the 2021 All-Ireland semi-final defeat to Tyrone – really stung.

4. Full-Strength Mayo. When you compare Mayo’s starting 15 in the league final to the starting 15 that is likely to take to the field this weekend, you quickly realise how unwise it is to read too much into the last meeting between the teams. James Horan should more or less have a full deck to play with this time and having Oisín Mullin and Paddy Durcan back in the fold is sure to give the match a different complexion.

5. Clifford Under Wraps. In April, Mayo left Pádraig O’Hora completely isolated on David Clifford. The results, from their point of view, were disastrous. With that in mind, James Horan will surely set his defence up differently in an attempt to curtail Clifford’s influence on the game. O'Hora could be entrusted with the task again but whoever gets the nod, we can expect helpers to rush in and suffocate the explosive full forward from the off. If Mayo are successful in this endeavour, it will give them a huge lift - it might even propel them to another famous win.

VERDICT: Complacency on Kerry’s part will be fatal but with a new manager on board and with the chastening defeats of the past two seasons still fresh in their minds, it’s hard to see that being a factor. Mayo could well hit them hard early on but if Kerry are at full strength, they should win this game by 3-5 points.