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Numbers Game: How Kerry can reach league final – or get relegated for first time in 24 years

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by Adam Moynihan

Men’s NFL Division 1

Galway v Kerry

Sunday 3.45pm

Salthill

Live on TG4 YouTube

Kerry travel to Galway on Sunday knowing that defeat could well consign them to relegation for the first time since 2001. Win and they could be Croker-bound. It’s that tight heading into the final day of Division 1 of the National Football League. Anything could happen.

Let’s get the lay of the land before we wade into the murky waters of permutations. We currently have a three-way tie at the top of the table with Galway, Dublin and Donegal all level on eight points. Next up are Mayo on seven, followed by Kerry on six, Armagh and Tyrone on five, and already-relegated Derry on one.

P W D L PD Pts
1 Galway 6 3 2 1 17 8
2 Dublin 6 4 0 2 8 8
3 Donegal 6 4 0 2 4 8
4 Mayo 6 3 1 2 -3 7
5 Kerry 6 3 0 3 11 6
6 Tyrone 6 2 1 3 0 5
7 Armagh 6 2 1 3 -8 5
8 Derry 6 0 1 5 -29 1

In the seventh and final round of the league, Galway play Kerry, Mayo are at home to Donegal, Armagh host Derry, and Tyrone welcome Dublin to Healy Park, Omagh. All four matches are being played simultaneously at 3.45pm on Sunday.

So, who will be joining the Oak Leafers in Division 2 in 2026?

If Kerry lose they will remain on six points, which means that if Armagh and Tyrone both win, they will move onto seven points, relegating the Kingdom. However, if Kerry lose they will stay up if one or both of Armagh or Tyrone lose.

If Kerry lose and either Armagh or Tyrone draw and the other win, Kerry are safe on the head-to-head rule. If Kerry lose and both Armagh and Tyrone draw, there will be a three-way tie on six points. In this event, points difference will come into play, and Kerry will survive if they lose to Galway by less than 20.

If Kerry draw with Galway, they will almost certainly be safe. Such a result would move them up to seven points, and even if Armagh and Tyrone both win, Kerry’s superior points difference would, barring an incredible set of results, see them over the line. Kerry are currently on +11 with Armagh on -8 and Tyrone breaking even on zero. So Armagh would need to beat Derry by 20 points and Tyrone would need to beat Dublin by 12 for them both to overtake Kerry.

Now, let’s fix our gaze upwards rather than down. A place in the league final is also on the cards - if all those cards fall kindly.

If Kerry win, they will wind up on eight points, guaranteeing their status as a Division 1 team for the 24th year in a row. If they win by three points (or more), that’s where things get interesting. Such a margin of victory would see them overtake their direct opponents, Galway, on ‘points for’ (if they win by three) or ‘overall points difference’ (if they win by more than three).

It would also guarantee that they would slip in between Mayo and Donegal, with the winner of that game moving into first, and the loser missing out on the league final. (A draw would be enough for Donegal, but not enough for Mayo.)

Kerry’s fate (again, if they win) would then depend on the result in the Tyrone v Dublin game. If Dublin win, they will advance to the league final. If Dublin draw, they will advance to the league final. But if Dublin lose, they will be passed out by Kerry, and Jack O’Connor’s men will sneak into the Croke Park decider via the side entrance.

That would be a remarkable turn of events considering the team’s spotty form up to this point, but the main priority will simply be to win and ensure survival. Anything on top of that would be a hard-earned bonus.

Tyrone v Dublin will be shown on TG4 with all other Division 1 and Division 2 games available live on the TG4 YouTube channel.

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Jack O’Connor’s Kerry squad is looking deeper and stronger (but the proof will be in the eating)

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As we reach the midway point of the 2025 season, Adam Moynihan takes a close look at Kerry’s strength in depth

As the Kerry players, management team and backroom staff huddled together for a photo with the Mícheál Ó Muircheartaigh Cup in front of the Hogan Stand, one of the photographers raised his fist in the air, trying to illicit something resembling a celebratory scene. No joy.

Victory over Mayo had been secured in convincing enough fashion but winning the league has never been grounds for buoyant celebrations as far as Kerry are concerned. Retaining Division 1 status and unearthing some new talent is generally enough to tick the springtime box ahead of the serious business of the championship. Once that has been achieved, anything else is gravy.

Going by the disappointing loss to Armagh in last year’s All-Ireland semi-final, the need for new blood was especially great heading into the 2025 season. The team faded badly down the stretch and into extra time against the Orchard County with overdependence on core players glaringly obvious. It wasn’t the only reason they lost but Kerry simply didn’t get enough from their supporting cast on the day.

With that in mind, Jack O’Connor knew he had to work on the depth of his squad during this league campaign, and you’d have to say he made a pretty good fist of it.

Starting in goal, the situation here is clear with Shane Murphy providing back-up to Shane Ryan.

Moving out the field, in recent years Kerry have generally gone with Jason Foley at full back, Tom O’Sullivan at left corner back, and one of Paul Murphy or Graham O’Sullivan at right corner back.

After making his debut in the league in 2024, Damien Bourke has emerged as a genuine right corner back alternative with some strong performances that have vastly enhanced his reputation. Not many Kerry players came out of the Dublin defeat with extra credit to their name but Bourke was brave and tenacious, bursting out of defence and using the ball wisely. He was replaced as a starter by the experienced Murphy in later rounds but the Tralee man capped his league with a goal off the bench against Galway in Salthill.

Dylan Casey also got extended game time in the absence of Tom O’Sullivan and he acquitted himself professionally. He has a solid head on his shoulders and you get the impression that Jack O’Connor would now be comfortable throwing him into any given situation without hesitation.

The versatile Graham O’Sullivan is also an option at corner back and it looks like he’ll need to slot in somewhere other than his natural position of half back as Brian Ó Beaglaoich and Gavin White are nailed on starters at 5 and 7. O’Sullivan lined out at half forward against Galway and Mayo, underlining his flexibility and importance to the team.

There could be a changing of the guard taking place at centre back with Mike Breen seemingly shaking off the injury woes that have held back his progress with Kerry to date. With regular number 6 Tadhg Morley unavailable for selection for most of the league, Breen slotted seamlessly into that crucial central role, and he looked really confident against Mayo on Sunday. As things stand, Morley will be doing well to displace Breen but either way Kerry should have two good centre back options heading into the summer months.

Midfield has been a head scratcher for Kerry for a number of years but in Diarmuid O’Connor and Joe O’Connor they appear to have found a winning combination. Diarmuid was playing the best football of his career up to his injury against Armagh in Round 6 so getting his shoulder right for championship is of paramount importance to Kerry’s chances.

Joe is a guaranteed starter too but his assured display at wing forward against Armagh was interesting in that it opens the door for a third midfielder to start. Seán O’Brien and Barry Dan O’Sullivan both applied themselves admirably when called upon in the league and the manager should feel like he can trust them more now than he did 12 months ago.

Joe O’Connor’s arrival as a half forward candidate has improved Kerry’s options to the extent that it’s difficult to predict how they will line out from 10 to 12 in the Munster Championship. Micheál Burns has done quite well upon his reintroduction to the team after being dropped from the panel in 2024, and Paudie Clifford is looking sharp at centre forward. Tony Brosnan and Dylan Geaney are options along this line too, although Dylan has been operating as a withdrawn inside forward to date – a role Tony is also capable of playing.

Of course, Seánie O’Shea will have to fit in somewhere in this department when he fully recuperates from his knee ligament injury, so it will be interesting to see how Jack O’Connor works this conundrum out. File under ‘good problems’.

Dara Moynihan is still recovering from a hip injury and has not yet featured in 2025. He would naturally be an option at 10 if he can get back up to speed. Meanwhile, Darragh Lyne, Ruairí Murphy and Cathal Ó Beaglaoich all featured at half forward in the league.

David Clifford and Paul Geaney will play at 13 and 14 with Dylan Geaney in pole position to start at 15 on the back of a really good run of form, perhaps excepting the league final in which he was relatively quiet. Tony Brosnan is a prime candidate to challenge Dylan for that spot; the Dr Crokes player has kicked some fantastic scores in each of his last three appearances as a substitute.

As for out-and-out inside forwards, Conor Geaney and Killian Spillane are likely to be used as impact subs.

All told Kerry do appear to have better depth than they had last year, particularly with the emergence of second season players like Bourke, O’Brien and Dylan Geaney as legitimate options, and with Breen beginning to fulfil his potential. Burns’ comeback and Joe O’Connor’s newfound ability to play the 12 position also help.

As always, though, the proof will be in the eating. We will have to wait for the suffocating heat of do-or-die championship matches to find out if this squad is as deep and dependable as it looks on paper.

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BREAKING: Two changes for Kerry as Jack O’Connor names team for league final

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by Adam Moynihan

National League Division 1 Final

Kerry v Mayo

Sunday 4pm

Croke Park, Dublin

Live on TG4

Kerry manager Jack O’Connor has made two changes to his starting 15 for Sunday’s league final against Mayo.

Regular first choice keeper Shane Ryan sat out last weekend’s eight-point victory over Galway but he reclaims the number one jersey with Shane Murphy returning to the bench. At midfield, Seán O’Brien misses out having injured his calf last weekend. The Beaufort man is replaced by Barry Dan O’Sullivan.

Attack-minded corner back Tom O’Sullivan is named amongst the substitutes after missing the last four games due to a calf injury but, as expected, Diarmuid O’Connor (shoulder) and Seánie O’Shea (knee ligament) remain absent with both now aiming to return for the championship.

KERRY TEAM TO PLAY MAYO

1. Shane Ryan

2. Paul Murphy

3. Jason Foley

4. Dylan Casey

5. Gavin White

6. Mike Breen

7. Brian Ó Beaglaoich

8. Joe O’Connor

9. Barry Dan O’Sullivan

10. Micheál Burns

11. Paudie Clifford

12. Graham O’Sullivan

13. David Clifford

14. Paul Geaney

15. Dylan Geaney

Subs: Shane Murphy, Conor Geaney, Damien Bourke, Tony Brosnan, Tom O’Sullivan, Armin Heinrich, Ruairí Murphy, Killian Spillane, Evan Looney, Cathal Ó Beaglaoich, Mark O’Shea, Tom Leo O’Sullivan.

As for Mayo, Kevin McStay’s line-up shows one change from last Sunday’s two-point victory over Donegal as Fenton Kelly makes way for Davitt Neary.

MAYO TEAM TO PLAY KERRY

1. Colm Reape

2. Jack Coyne

3. Donnacha McHugh

4. Enda Hession

5. Sam Callinan

6. David McBrien

7. Stephen Coen

8. Jack Carney

9. Matthew Ruane

10. Davitt Neary

11. Darren McHale

12. Jordan Flynn

13. Aidan O’Shea

14. Frank Irwin

15. Ryan O’Donoghue

Subs: Not named.

After a totally unpredictable Division 1 campaign, Kerry arrive in Sunday’s decider on the back of two impressive victories over last year’s All-Ireland finalists Armagh and Galway. That’s fine form in anyone’s language but they will be taking nothing for granted against Mayo, a team who deservedly beat them as recently as the first day of March.

The Kingdom laboured in that fixture in Castlebar and trailed by seven (0-14 to 1-4) at the break, with Mayo’s midfield dominance particularly concerning. It was only a two-point game in the end but the consensus was that the better team won on the day. The joyous pitch invasion that followed signalled how much victories over Kerry still mean to the westerners.

Aidan O’Shea was influential around the middle third with marksman Ryan O’Donoghue causing problems inside – those two will need special attention if Kerry are to avoid a repeat result.

Kerry are hoping to win their 24th National League title, having last prevailed in 2022 after defeating Mayo in the final on an emphatic scoreline of 3-19 to 0-13. David Clifford scored 1-6 including a spectacular goal into the Hill 16 end, and he and his teammates climbed the Hogan steps again later that year to lift the Sam Maguire.

In fact, each of Jack O’Connor’s previous four league titles as Kerry manager have been followed by All-Irelands that same year (2004, 2006, 2009, 2022).

Mayo, meanwhile, are seeking their 14th league triumph. Winning will draw them level with Dublin in second place on the all-time National League honours list.

This year for the first time the Division 1 finalists will be vying for the Micheál Ó Muircheartaigh Cup, renamed in honour of the legendary Kerry broadcaster who sadly passed away in 2024.

Kerry v Mayo will form part of a double header with the Division 3 final between Kildare and Offaly (1.45pm). The Division 2 and Division 4 finals (Monaghan v Roscommon and Wexford v Limerick) will be staged in Croke Park on Saturday evening.

Follow Adam on Twitter @AdamMoynihan for all the latest Kerry football updates

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