by Adam Moynihan

Men’s NFL Division 1

Galway v Kerry

Sunday 3.45pm

Salthill

Live on TG4 YouTube

Kerry travel to Galway on Sunday knowing that defeat could well consign them to relegation for the first time since 2001. Win and they could be Croker-bound. It’s that tight heading into the final day of Division 1 of the National Football League. Anything could happen.

Let’s get the lay of the land before we wade into the murky waters of permutations. We currently have a three-way tie at the top of the table with Galway, Dublin and Donegal all level on eight points. Next up are Mayo on seven, followed by Kerry on six, Armagh and Tyrone on five, and already-relegated Derry on one.

In the seventh and final round of the league, Galway play Kerry, Mayo are at home to Donegal, Armagh host Derry, and Tyrone welcome Dublin to Healy Park, Omagh. All four matches are being played simultaneously at 3.45pm on Sunday.

So, who will be joining the Oak Leafers in Division 2 in 2026?

If Kerry lose they will remain on six points, which means that if Armagh and Tyrone both win, they will move onto seven points, relegating the Kingdom. However, if Kerry lose they will stay up if one or both of Armagh or Tyrone lose.

If Kerry lose and either Armagh or Tyrone draw and the other win, Kerry are safe on the head-to-head rule. If Kerry lose and both Armagh and Tyrone draw, there will be a three-way tie on six points. In this event, points difference will come into play, and Kerry will survive if they lose to Galway by less than 20.

If Kerry draw with Galway, they will almost certainly be safe. Such a result would move them up to seven points, and even if Armagh and Tyrone both win, Kerry’s superior points difference would, barring an incredible set of results, see them over the line. Kerry are currently on +11 with Armagh on -8 and Tyrone breaking even on zero. So Armagh would need to beat Derry by 20 points and Tyrone would need to beat Dublin by 12 for them both to overtake Kerry.

Now, let’s fix our gaze upwards rather than down. A place in the league final is also on the cards - if all those cards fall kindly.

If Kerry win, they will wind up on eight points, guaranteeing their status as a Division 1 team for the 24th year in a row. If they win by three points (or more), that’s where things get interesting. Such a margin of victory would see them overtake their direct opponents, Galway, on ‘points for’ (if they win by three) or ‘overall points difference’ (if they win by more than three).

It would also guarantee that they would slip in between Mayo and Donegal, with the winner of that game moving into first, and the loser missing out on the league final. (A draw would be enough for Donegal, but not enough for Mayo.)

Kerry’s fate (again, if they win) would then depend on the result in the Tyrone v Dublin game. If Dublin win, they will advance to the league final. If Dublin draw, they will advance to the league final. But if Dublin lose, they will be passed out by Kerry, and Jack O’Connor’s men will sneak into the Croke Park decider via the side entrance.

That would be a remarkable turn of events considering the team’s spotty form up to this point, but the main priority will simply be to win and ensure survival. Anything on top of that would be a hard-earned bonus.

Tyrone v Dublin will be shown on TG4 with all other Division 1 and Division 2 games available live on the TG4 YouTube channel.