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Numbers Game: How Kerry can reach league final – or get relegated for first time in 24 years

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by Adam Moynihan

Men’s NFL Division 1

Galway v Kerry

Sunday 3.45pm

Salthill

Live on TG4 YouTube

Kerry travel to Galway on Sunday knowing that defeat could well consign them to relegation for the first time since 2001. Win and they could be Croker-bound. It’s that tight heading into the final day of Division 1 of the National Football League. Anything could happen.

Let’s get the lay of the land before we wade into the murky waters of permutations. We currently have a three-way tie at the top of the table with Galway, Dublin and Donegal all level on eight points. Next up are Mayo on seven, followed by Kerry on six, Armagh and Tyrone on five, and already-relegated Derry on one.

P W D L PD Pts
1 Galway 6 3 2 1 17 8
2 Dublin 6 4 0 2 8 8
3 Donegal 6 4 0 2 4 8
4 Mayo 6 3 1 2 -3 7
5 Kerry 6 3 0 3 11 6
6 Tyrone 6 2 1 3 0 5
7 Armagh 6 2 1 3 -8 5
8 Derry 6 0 1 5 -29 1

In the seventh and final round of the league, Galway play Kerry, Mayo are at home to Donegal, Armagh host Derry, and Tyrone welcome Dublin to Healy Park, Omagh. All four matches are being played simultaneously at 3.45pm on Sunday.

So, who will be joining the Oak Leafers in Division 2 in 2026?

If Kerry lose they will remain on six points, which means that if Armagh and Tyrone both win, they will move onto seven points, relegating the Kingdom. However, if Kerry lose they will stay up if one or both of Armagh or Tyrone lose.

If Kerry lose and either Armagh or Tyrone draw and the other win, Kerry are safe on the head-to-head rule. If Kerry lose and both Armagh and Tyrone draw, there will be a three-way tie on six points. In this event, points difference will come into play, and Kerry will survive if they lose to Galway by less than 20.

If Kerry draw with Galway, they will almost certainly be safe. Such a result would move them up to seven points, and even if Armagh and Tyrone both win, Kerry’s superior points difference would, barring an incredible set of results, see them over the line. Kerry are currently on +11 with Armagh on -8 and Tyrone breaking even on zero. So Armagh would need to beat Derry by 20 points and Tyrone would need to beat Dublin by 12 for them both to overtake Kerry.

Now, let’s fix our gaze upwards rather than down. A place in the league final is also on the cards - if all those cards fall kindly.

If Kerry win, they will wind up on eight points, guaranteeing their status as a Division 1 team for the 24th year in a row. If they win by three points (or more), that’s where things get interesting. Such a margin of victory would see them overtake their direct opponents, Galway, on ‘points for’ (if they win by three) or ‘overall points difference’ (if they win by more than three).

It would also guarantee that they would slip in between Mayo and Donegal, with the winner of that game moving into first, and the loser missing out on the league final. (A draw would be enough for Donegal, but not enough for Mayo.)

Kerry’s fate (again, if they win) would then depend on the result in the Tyrone v Dublin game. If Dublin win, they will advance to the league final. If Dublin draw, they will advance to the league final. But if Dublin lose, they will be passed out by Kerry, and Jack O’Connor’s men will sneak into the Croke Park decider via the side entrance.

That would be a remarkable turn of events considering the team’s spotty form up to this point, but the main priority will simply be to win and ensure survival. Anything on top of that would be a hard-earned bonus.

Tyrone v Dublin will be shown on TG4 with all other Division 1 and Division 2 games available live on the TG4 YouTube channel.

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Fossa Swimmers make a splash at County Finals

The Fossa Swim team pictured at the Tralee Sports Complex following their successful outing at the County Finals of the Community Games on Sunday, February 15. The 25-strong squad delivered […]

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The Fossa Swim team pictured at the Tralee Sports Complex following their successful outing at the County Finals of the Community Games on Sunday, February 15.

The 25-strong squad delivered an impressive performance, securing a total of 37 medals across various individual and relay events.
Two Fossa swimmers captured gold medals, officially qualifying them for the National Community Games Finals scheduled for later this year.

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On the Ball Part 2 of the Mikey Daly Interview

Éamonn Fitzgerald EF: Killarney Celtic are invited to participate in an Irish competition. That has big financial implications for travel, meals, etc. MD: It is great to be invited, showing […]

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Éamonn Fitzgerald
EF: Killarney Celtic are invited to participate in an Irish competition. That has big financial implications for travel, meals, etc.
MD: It is great to be invited, showing the quality of our squads, but travel costs are very high. I have been looking at clubs like ours in Limerick, Tipperary, Clare and elsewhere for a regionalised competition so that travel costs could be reduced, but I don’t see any commitment to that idea. It’s up in the air at the moment.
EF: Running an amateur sports club is very expensive, especially if you have so many successful teams in competition.
MD: You are well aware of that yourself, but with all of our activities, we are funded by the usual sources used by all sports to collect money. We are in a very good financial state.
EF:How good?
MD: As a trustee of the club, I am very proud to say that we are almost debt-free and we expect to be clear of any debt by October this year, marking our 50th anniversary. In saying that, whether you are an Under 12 or a senior player, all you have to pay for a training session with Killarney Celtic is €2.

EF:The women in Celtic appear to do great work developing soccer for all.
MD: Yes, they do marvellous work in so many parts of the club, led by trojan worker Mary Lyne. On Wednesday night last, the Mothers, Others and Friends started a weekly non-competitive fun game under lights at Celtic Park, and that is great.

EF: Can, can you see some ex-Celtic player is going to make it with a top Irish club and then cross Channel?
Md: I have to compliment Killarney Athletic here right away because Brendan Moloney and Diarmaid O’Carroll did just that. We haven’t had any such shining light yet, but we know that we will in the future because we have great young successful players coming through.
EF: Reverting back again, to 1976, you would have come up at the time The ‘ban’ was abolished. That rule prevented GAA players from playing soccer. If they did, they were suspended. However, it must have been difficult for a player to play both codes when it was permitted.
MD: Fair dues to Seán Kelly, he removed the “ban’, and we were very fortunate that there were some great players from Spa in particular, like Billy Morris, Seán Cronin, the Cahill brothers, James and John, Seánie Kelliher and others. They wanted to play football and soccer. The way we worked it in Celtic was that if the football season was over, then they always played soccer with us, and vice versa
EF: Why do you think that club soccer has become so popular in Ireland? It is climbing the rankings as a sport in Ireland.
MD: Because it’s on television the whole time, and the coverage is getting is precedented. Anytime you turn on the TV, you will find a soccer game from all parts of the world, not just cross channel. The 11-a-side is probably easier to organise than we say 15-a-side in the GAA, and some small clubs, particularly in rural areas, find it hard to get 15 to form a team. See what they’re doing in places. Two neighbouring teams get together as one team, and that’s understandable because all people want to do is play. Of course, not all young people wish to play soccer; they have different hobbies, learning the guitar or whatever, and that is great for them. That’s my experience anyway.

EF: The real crunch time comes when they get to roughly 18-years-old, completing their post-primary education and moving away from Killarney for third-level education. They may be in college, anywhere in the country, making it difficult to come down and play with their local club. So that’s one big reason for the fall off.
MD: Some fall away before that, believe it or not.
EF: Do you think Celtic are doing well, promoting the club?

Yes, for all sexes, but particularly for the girls, so that they can stay on longer for valuable coaching. We’re very fortunate to have David McIndoe as coach for the Celtic girls, and he is outstanding, absolutely fantastic.
EF: The FAI seems to stumble from one crisis to another, but at local level soccer is alive and well in towns, as well as in rural areas. Ballyhar and Mastegeeha are very good examples where great facilities have been developed by enthusiastic volunteers and that attracts the players
MD: So I think once you get to the stage where you have a facility and committed club people, you’re there. We have a very good membership, and we’d be well organised for parents who support their kids playing, and they do. We have two stands, as you know, one dedicated to our former great Celtic man, John Doyle (RIP). That’s important nowadays that you have a clubhouse where the spectators can get that welcome cup of coffee they will relish, especially on cold days.
EF: Where do you see Celtic in 2076?

MD: As I said earlier in Killarney Celtic, we are welcoming for everyone, the local Irish, of course, but it’s open to all. We have great people originally, from China, Europe, and the Middle East. We have an exceptionally good committee at the moment. We had people with foresight like Dermot O’Callaghan (RIP), who were progressive, and of course, that family continues the Celtic tradition. Obviously, we like to push the thing on a bit further, but we’re very conscious that we spent 50 years putting this together and we want to make sure that when we go, the structures are in place in (Killarney) Celtic for the next 50 ( years)As a trustee I am very proud of how we have developed and will celebrate that achievement this year. We will also remember the Celtic players and supporters who have passed away since 1976 and look forward to whatever challenges and opportunities face Killarney Celtic in the years ahead. It is hard to believe that it all started from our conversation (with Billy Healy and Tommy O’Shea) that a new club was needed in Killarney, so that all players who wish to play soccer will be able to play at whatever level they wish and join us at Celtic Park.
EF: Thanks, Mikey, and wish you good health on your daily cycles with your good friend Mike O’Neill.
That’s Mikey Daly, always a pleasure to chat with him on a variety of sports.

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