All-Ireland Group 1

Kerry v Louth

Sunday at 2pm

Portlaoise

For the first time in 2023, Kerry’s season is on the line.

Following a disappointing defeat to Mayo at home and a hard-fought win away to Cork, The Kingdom know that they could be eliminated from the championship if they lose their final group game against Louth.

With that in mind, Jack O’Connor has named as strong a team as possible. The only change from the last outing sees Mike Breen replacing All-Star half back Gavin White. The Dr Crokes player has been omitted from the matchday 26 due to a calf injury.

The Kerry manager will provide an official update on White’s status tomorrow but the unofficial word is that he is expected to feature in the knockout phase - that's if Kerry get there.

Louth, who are currently on zero points, would jump ahead of Kerry on head-to-head with a win in the midlands on Sunday. However, if Cork were to lose to Mayo (Sunday 2pm, Limerick) they would also finish up on two points. Then Kerry, Louth and Cork would need to be be separated by points difference.

Cork (+3) hold the advantage over Kerry (-3) and Louth (-3) at the moment, but the margins are fine and they will naturally shift if that sequence of results were to occur.

Looking at it from the other angle, Jack O’Connor’s men will secure a preliminary quarter-final – at worst – if they manage to win at O’Moore Park. Victory would eliminate Louth and guarantee qualification for both Kerry and Cork, alongside Mayo who are already safe.

Kerry will end up on four points if they beat the Wee County with the final standings then hinging on Cork’s result against Mayo. If Cork lose, it’s straightforward enough. Mayo will top the group on six points and advance directly to the All-Ireland quarter-finals; Kerry will finish second on four points and secure a home preliminary quarter-final; and Cork will wind up third on two points, also securing a preliminary quarter-final, albeit away from home.

If Cork and Kerry both win, however, things could get complicated. That will mean that the top three – Cork, Kerry and Mayo – will have four points apiece. If this happens, the final standings will be decided based on points difference. Mayo hold the upper hand as things stand (+6).

A draw between Kerry and Louth would leave Kerry with a home preliminary quarter-final if Cork lose or draw and an away preliminary quarter-final if Cork win.

Whatever the permutations, Kerry will be aiming for victory and an improved performance against Mickey Harte’s outfit. Louth have risen through the ranks in impressive fashion and in Sam Mulroy they have a legitimate scoring threat. They will get bodies behind the ball and try to frustrate their more illustrious opponents so patience and focus will be crucial from Kerry’s perspective.

The match will not be shown on RTÉ or on GAAGO. Follow @AdamMoynihan on Twitter for updates.

KERRY TEAM TO PLAY LOUTH: S Ryan; G O’Sullivan, J Foley, T O’Sullivan; P Murphy, T Morley, M Breen; D O’Connor, J Barry; D Moynihan, S O’Shea, A Spillane; P Clifford, D Clifford, P Geaney.