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Three reasons stocks will fall

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By Michael O’Connor, theislandinvestor.com

I can’t recall a time in my career when the outlook was so ‘uncertain'.

I write to clarify my thoughts on the market, but right now, the market noise is deafening.

For me, the economic data points to an obvious slowdown, so my head screams ‘LIMITED UPSIDE’, but my pocket tells me I have been wrong plenty of times before.

Here are three areas I am watching that will dictate where the market goes over the coming months and how you can set up your portfolio accordingly.

1. There is an alternative

Bonds have become a genuine alternative to stocks as the equity risk premium falls.

This is already playing out. More than $100bn has flowed out of stock mutual funds and ETFs on a combined basis over the past 13 weeks, one of the worst flow collapses on record while money market fund flows surge.

The narrative is simple. Why have all your exposure in ‘risky’ stocks if you can get 5% risk-free?

2. Earnings

Company earnings drive the stock market in the long run, and higher interest rates will squeeze margins and lower corporate profits over time.

- In Q4, S&P 500 companies posted an average earnings decline of 4.9% over the same quarter a year earlier. This marks the first quarterly decline since the third quarter of 2020.
- S&P 500 profit margin fell from 13.4% in Q4 2021 to 10.8% in Q4 2022.
- Forward earnings projections have fallen from +10% to +2% over recent weeks - a trend that will likely continue, (some of this is already priced in).

As company profits fall, the price investors are willing to pay to own a part of these companies falls as well.

3. Real Estate slowdown

In the US, 'existing-home sales' have been falling for 12 months straight. January year-over-year sales were down 36.9% and are now at levels last seen during the COVID low and Great Financial Crisis.

Even with supply constraints, housing affordability is far from where it needs to be for demand to return. We need to see either a big adjustment lower in interest rates, a realistic decline in prices or some combination of the two.

In Ireland, the trend is still developing. Europe is behind the US in the rate hiking cycle, so mortgage rates are still relatively low (but rising). The housing market has remained stable as a result.

There have been some signs of a slowdown in activity but no significant price movement. The number of house sales in January 2023 was 11% lower than the same month a year earlier.

However, supply issues and a lower mortgage rate relative to the US mean we are unlikely to see any significant price declines in Ireland just yet.

As rates increase, however, I expect the Irish market to come under the same pressure we are currently seeing play out in the US.

Outlook

As we move forward, the question that determines where the stock market will go changes from:

How high will interest rates go?

to

How long can rates stay this high before something breaks?

In my opinion, any market rallies we see off the back of single data releases will be short-lived - but they will happen.

Long-lasting bull markets require rapidly expanding valuations and/or strong earnings growth. I don’t see a reason for either in the data.

Of course, this is a condensed view. If you want me to help you build out and protect your portfolio, email me mike@theislandinvestor.com or scan the QR code.

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From silence to connection: Neil Kelders returns to Killarney to give back and talk mental health

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When I first moved from The Premier to The Kingdom, Neil Kelders was the familiar face behind the bar at the Tatler Jack. I thought I knew him, but I didn’t really know him at all. His story, like so many untold stories in our community, is a powerful reminder of why mental health matters, and why checking in on friends and family is so crucial.

Mental Health Week took place in the second week of October, and although this feature comes a little late, the timing is still perfect. Neil is giving back to his hometown, hosting a free parent workshop on raising resilient teens.  It takes place at Killarney Racecourse on Thursday, November 13 at 7pm. His mission is simple but profound: honest conversation can change everything. No tea, no biscuits, just FaceTime and conversation. 

I sat down with Neil to talk about his upcoming workshop.

Neil, the evening at Killarney Racecourse is a beautiful gesture. What inspired you to host it here in your hometown?

My first mental-health talk was in Killarney ten years ago. This town shaped me, so coming back isn’t nostalgic, it’s needed. Parents are still afraid, teens overwhelmed, families unsure how to bridge the gap. Change starts at home with small, human actions. The Racecourse felt right, full of life and community. When I mentioned it to Ollie, he said yes before I finished. That’s Killarney, people who show up.

You’ve said this event is about “giving back.” What does that mean to you personally?

I feel it’s my duty. I hid my struggles for twenty years. Learning to manage them gave me a responsibility to share what helps. When I told my story, messages came from parents, teens, strangers. Honesty opens doors. My mental health is strong, but I still have hard days. Recovery isn’t perfection, it’s showing what’s possible.

You’ve invited clubs, schools, and groups across all divides. What do you hope people take away?

Mental health touches every home, club, school and group. We’ve all got our boxes. Parent, coach, teacher, teen, but none of us has been here before. We’re learning as we go. I want people to leave lighter and more connected, reminded that honest conversations change everything.

You’ve built a reputation for helping people find a way forward using what actually works. What does that look like in practice?

“What works” means tools you can use today, not theory for tomorrow.

In coaching and workshops, that can mean pausing before reacting or small resets that steady a home. It’s not about fixing anyone, it’s helping them move forward with calm, clarity, and courage.

Can you share a bit about your journey, how you came to this line of work?

I was the class clown, always “grand.” I wasn’t. I lived with depression, anxiety, and suicidal thoughts for two decades. The first person I confided in was my sister-in-law. I felt a weight lifted but it was only the start. You don’t talk once, and it’s gone, you keep talking. At Pieta House, two counsellors didn’t fit; the third did. She challenged me, then said: “Someone else might be a better fit now.” That honesty changed me. Everyone had helped, but I still had to take responsibility. That was the turning point, stop waiting to be rescued, start rebuilding.

Your book The Other Side has resonated widely. What message do you hope people carry?

Getting through tough times isn’t a straight line. It’s messy, human, and possible. You don’t need it all figured out, just do something. The book shows what rebuilding really looks like: slip-ups, small wins, learning to live again. Change will start when you act.

You’ve worked with parents, teenagers, and organisations. What’s one common challenge you see?

Disconnection. Parents fear saying the wrong thing, teenagers think no one understands, adults pretend they’re fine. When people don’t feel heard, they stop talking. My work breaks that silence, listening without fixing, supporting without fear. When people feel safe to be real, things change.

How do you keep mental health relatable, especially for teens?

By being real. Teens spot fake instantly. I don’t arrive with answers, we find them together. They help decide what’s shared with parents; that trust matters. We talk about goals, values, and what they want from life. Sometimes it’s “burn your thoughts” or a quick reset; sometimes it’s just listening. Once they see they don’t have to be perfect, things shift.

What would you say to parents who feel guilty or unsure?

You’re not meant to have all the answers. Keep showing up, even when you don’t know how. Your job isn’t to fix your teenage child, it’s to help them feel safe enough to talk. You can’t do that if you’re running on empty. A walk, a pause, five minutes of breathing, it helps. Presence beats perfection.

For teenagers, what’s one message you hope they’ll hear?

You’re not broken. You’re feeling more than you can handle right now, that’s being human. When I was your age, I hid for years. If you’ve spoken up, even once, you’re already twenty years ahead of me. What you’re feeling can seem endless, but it isn’t. There’s more ahead. Calm, laughter, and moments you can’t imagine yet. Keep moving, and don’t do it alone.

Are we getting better at talking about mental health?

We’re talking more but not always listening better. Awareness is great but it isn’t action. We quote “one in four,” but I could never have been a stat, I wore the mask too well. Others are hiding too. We have more language now, but not always the safety to use it. Stigma hasn’t gone; it’s changed shape. Awareness matters; connection changes lives. If someone leaves feeling hopeful but unsure where to start, what’s one step they can take? Start small. Check in with one person tomorrow. Ask, “How are you, really?” and mean it. Don’t fix, show up.

What does this community mean to you?

Killarney shaped me, the good and the hard. It’s where I stayed silent and where I found my voice again. We’re not meant to do life alone. Connection holds us together.

If people remember one thing from the evening, what would you love it to be?

Things can get better. Not perfect, just better. If you change nothing, nothing changes. Do something.

What’s next for you?

More of this. Real conversations that make a difference. I’m continuing parent-teen coaching and community workshops across Ireland, the UK, and Canada, and working with companies to build workplaces where people can speak up safely. The focus now is partnerships and reach, so families get help before crisis. I’m really looking forward to next Thursday night at the Racecourse.  Its free and all are welcome.  Be sure to register at events.neilkelders.com.  It’s not about perfection or having all the answers. It’s about connection, courage, and showing up. Join me, and let’s start together.

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Kilcummin Mothers & Others quiz raises over €1,800 for charity

Kilcummin Gaelic Mothers & Others hosted a hugely successful Halloween-themed table quiz last Friday night at the Kilcummin Klub Bar and GAA Hall, raising over €1,800 for charity. The event […]

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Kilcummin Gaelic Mothers & Others hosted a hugely successful Halloween-themed table quiz last Friday night at the Kilcummin Klub Bar and GAA Hall, raising over €1,800 for charity.

The event saw an excellent turnout of more than 130 people, with funds set to be split between Temple Street Children’s Hospital and the local Kilcummin Mothers & Others ladies football team.
Many attendees embraced the Halloween spirit by arriving in “Spooktacular” costumes, adding to the fun of the evening. Organisers noted that the “Big Raffle,” supported by generous local businesses and individuals who contributed prizes, played a significant part in the successful financial outcome.
Quiz Master Derek O’Leary put participants through their paces with a variety of challenging questions. Team member Catriona Doolan, one of the organisers, described the evening as “undoubtedly a great social evening for all in attendance,” confirming that a family fun night was had by all.
Organisers extended their gratitude to Kilcummin GAA, as well as John O’Sullivan and staff for facilitating the event and providing a wonderful array of finger food at half-time. Thanks were also given to Nessa and Declan for supplying the sound system.
The Kilcummin Mothers & Others group is always open to new members. Those wishing to join the vibrant and fun-active group can contact Ann Marie on 087 9047274.

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