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Predicting the future

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By Michael O’Connor

I received some bad news over the last few weeks, and it has changed my perspective on a few things.

One thing I realised is that it's the things you never see coming that truly impact your life.

We spend our days worrying about the obvious risks, and then our lives are upended by an event we could never have predicted.

This is true across so many aspects of life.

Investing is no different.

Much of my day job is focused on what happens next.

Are we headed for a recession, will the stock market crash, and how much will property prices fall?
These are all pressing questions, but these attempts to predict the future can be soul-destroying when the future is so hard to predict.

History is an endless stream of reasonable predictions upended by unforeseeable surprises.

In 2001, as we focused on the debt crisis in Europe, two planes struck the Twin Towers. In less than 90 minutes, the world changed in a way that was simply impossible to predict.

In 2020, as we focused on the implications of Trade Wars, a virus shut down the global economy, and 20 million Americans lost their jobs in a single week.

And on and on.

Paying attention to the known unknowns is essential, but it’s risks that we don't see coming that truly define us.

No preparation, no protection, maximum destruction.

So, if the surprises are what really move the needle, why do we spend so much time trying to predict the future?

Simple put, it helps us worry less.

Building a vision of the future and convincing ourselves it will play out offers unrivalled piece of mind - a sense of control in an entirely uncontrollable world.

The warm cozy hug of certainty is hard to resist.

Despite the allure, however, we must ask ourselves; why obsess over predicting the exact path when the probability of us getting it exactly right is so low? Surely this is an obvious waste of time and resources?

So how can we better allocate resources?

Focus on the bigger picture

Instead of arguing over the minutiae, we need to focus on the bigger picture.

So many risks could play out over the short term.

Inflation runs higher, and interest rates pull down stock market returns.

The real estate market falters, creating economic ripple effects;

Energy shortages
A new COVID strain

The point is, there is always risk.

History is just one thing after another.

There is never a utopian state of calm, but over the long run, humans have prevailed.

In the face of wars, depressions and pandemics, people have become more productive.

We have continued to innovate and create products and companies that are more and more profitable over time.

This is the detail we often fail to see - the glimmer of light in a dark room.

Our ability to adapt and overcome over time is undisputed.

So, instead of trying to predict exactly what happens next, trust that we will prevail over time and focus on the larger trends.

What innovations will inspire the next generation of profitable companies? How will changing demographics change the world?

You will never get it 100% right but focusing on the stuff that really matters certainly improves your odds.

To learn what companies to invest in and to get direct access to my personal investment portfolio go to www.theislandinvestor.com.

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Diesel alternative now available in Killarney

A new, more environmentally friendly diesel alternative is now available in Killarney, with Certa’s site in the Woodlands Industrial Estate becoming the first in Kerry to dispense hydrotreated vegetable oil […]

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A new, more environmentally friendly diesel alternative is now available in Killarney, with Certa’s site in the Woodlands Industrial Estate becoming the first in Kerry to dispense hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO).

The renewable fuel is already being used locally — including by Deros Coaches.
HVO is a low-carbon biofuel that serves as a direct replacement for traditional diesel.

Made by treating waste plant material with hydrogen, it does not release any additional carbon emissions into the atmosphere.
Compared to regular diesel, HVO emits up to 90% less CO₂ and also offers benefits such as lower NOx emissions, biodegradability, longer shelf-life, and being completely fossil-free.

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St Brigid’s principal Róisín Moore to step down

After years at the helm of St Brigid’s Secondary School, Principal Róisín Moore has announced her decision to step down, marking the end of a remarkable chapter in the school’s […]

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After years at the helm of St Brigid’s Secondary School, Principal Róisín Moore has announced her decision to step down, marking the end of a remarkable chapter in the school’s history.

In a statement issued by the school community this week, Ms Moore described the decision as deeply personal.

“This has not been an easy decision,” she said.

“But I believe the time is right for me to explore other opportunities while also giving greater attention to family responsibilities. The role of principal is a demanding one, and I have always strived to give it my full commitment.”

Ms Moore’s tenure at St. Brigid’s has been defined by vision, compassion, and a deep commitment to the values of CEIST and Catholic education. A former student of the school , she returned years later to lead the institution she credits with shaping her both personally and professionally.

“Serving as Principal of St Brigid’s has been one of the great honours of my life,” she said. “I remain deeply committed to the values of CEIST and to the mission of Catholic education. I am proud of what we have achieved together, and I leave the role with immense gratitude for the opportunity to lead the school community.”

Her leadership coincided with significant achievements, including a very positive WSE-MLL (Whole School Evaluation – Management, Leadership and Learning) report, the continued advancement of a major building project, and the fostering of what she described as “a caring and inclusive environment with high expectations at its core.”

“We have an outstanding teaching staff, a robust culture of leadership and management, and a clear sense of purpose and direction,” she added. “I have every confidence the board of management and staff will continue to bring the school forward.”

Teacher and school PRO Sheree Murphy paid tribute on behalf of staff and students.

‘It’s hard to put into words just how much Róisín has meant to St Brigid’s and to all of us who have had the privilege of working under her leadership” said Ms Murphy.

“She has been an exceptional leader, steadfast, visionary, and deeply committed to every student, staff member, and family in our school community. Her dedication has truly brought the school from strength to strength.”

“Through her guidance, I personally have grown immensely as a teacher. Her belief in professional development, collaborative leadership, and high expectations has helped shape the kind of educator I am today.”

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