News
Predicting the future

By Michael O’Connor
I received some bad news over the last few weeks, and it has changed my perspective on a few things.
One thing I realised is that it's the things you never see coming that truly impact your life.
We spend our days worrying about the obvious risks, and then our lives are upended by an event we could never have predicted.
This is true across so many aspects of life.
Investing is no different.
Much of my day job is focused on what happens next.
Are we headed for a recession, will the stock market crash, and how much will property prices fall?
These are all pressing questions, but these attempts to predict the future can be soul-destroying when the future is so hard to predict.
History is an endless stream of reasonable predictions upended by unforeseeable surprises.
In 2001, as we focused on the debt crisis in Europe, two planes struck the Twin Towers. In less than 90 minutes, the world changed in a way that was simply impossible to predict.
In 2020, as we focused on the implications of Trade Wars, a virus shut down the global economy, and 20 million Americans lost their jobs in a single week.
And on and on.
Paying attention to the known unknowns is essential, but it’s risks that we don't see coming that truly define us.
No preparation, no protection, maximum destruction.
So, if the surprises are what really move the needle, why do we spend so much time trying to predict the future?
Simple put, it helps us worry less.
Building a vision of the future and convincing ourselves it will play out offers unrivalled piece of mind - a sense of control in an entirely uncontrollable world.
The warm cozy hug of certainty is hard to resist.
Despite the allure, however, we must ask ourselves; why obsess over predicting the exact path when the probability of us getting it exactly right is so low? Surely this is an obvious waste of time and resources?
So how can we better allocate resources?
Focus on the bigger picture
Instead of arguing over the minutiae, we need to focus on the bigger picture.
So many risks could play out over the short term.
Inflation runs higher, and interest rates pull down stock market returns.
The real estate market falters, creating economic ripple effects;
Energy shortages
A new COVID strain
The point is, there is always risk.
History is just one thing after another.
There is never a utopian state of calm, but over the long run, humans have prevailed.
In the face of wars, depressions and pandemics, people have become more productive.
We have continued to innovate and create products and companies that are more and more profitable over time.
This is the detail we often fail to see - the glimmer of light in a dark room.
Our ability to adapt and overcome over time is undisputed.
So, instead of trying to predict exactly what happens next, trust that we will prevail over time and focus on the larger trends.
What innovations will inspire the next generation of profitable companies? How will changing demographics change the world?
You will never get it 100% right but focusing on the stuff that really matters certainly improves your odds.
To learn what companies to invest in and to get direct access to my personal investment portfolio go to www.theislandinvestor.com.
News
Killarney and District Motor Club members honoured by Motorsport Ireland
By Cormac Casey Several members of Killarney and District Motor Club were honoured at the Motorsport Ireland awards lunch in Dublin on Wednesday. The highlight of the event is the […]

By Cormac Casey
Several members of Killarney and District Motor Club were honoured at the Motorsport Ireland awards lunch in Dublin on Wednesday.
The highlight of the event is the announcement of the sport’s top awards.
Kilkenny’s Jack Brennan (19) was named Young Rally Driver of the Year, while Wexford native Jack Byrne was named Young Racing Driver of the Year and the International Driver of the Year award went to recently crowned FIA Junior World Rally Champion, William Creighton.
Muckross-based co-driver Noel O’Sullivan was presented with his Irish Tarmac Rally Championship winning trophy.
This year saw the introduction of the Motorsport Ireland President’s Awards which celebrate the achievements of clubs and organisations.
Killarney and District Motor Club won in the innovation category for their work with their KDMC 2 initiative thanks to the efforts of the club’s vice chairman Mike O’Shea.
Rally Rescue teams were also recognised and the club’s Mike Cleary picked up an award for his role he played in what was a difficult year for rescue crew operators.
Tom O’Riordan, who looks after ambulance procurement on the club’s events, was presented with an FIA Volunteer Pin by Motorsport Ireland President Aiden Harper.
Killarney Advertiser Journalist Sean Moriarty was presented with an award for best use of of PR and media in 2023.
News
Kerry Mental Health and Wellbeing Fest ‘thank you’ event at Brehon
Participation in the 2023 Kerry Mental Health and Wellbeing Fest has grown by more than 100% since 2020 with 98% of those who gave feedback saying they would attend similar […]

Participation in the 2023 Kerry Mental Health and Wellbeing Fest has grown by more than 100% since 2020 with 98% of those who gave feedback saying they would attend similar events again in 2024.
Feedback from more than 100 people who attended this year’s Fest events from 7th to 14th October was positive with 91% stating they were satisfied.
The Kerry Mental Health and Wellbeing Fest is held annually over the course of a week to highlight World Mental Health Day on October 10.
It aims to raise awareness of the available supports and services in Kerry as well as empower people to engage with the ‘Five Ways to Wellbeing’ through offering a dynamic and interactive programme of events.
99% percent of respondents, most of whom identified as female, said they would recommend the Fest to friends next year. Some key notes for improvement included a request for more events with wider variety throughout the county.
The Chair of the Interagency Steering Group, John Drummey from Kerry Mental Health Association, said: “We wish to extend a heartfelt thanks to event organisers, community groups, businesses, funders and partners that facilitated the Fest’s dynamic and interactive programme of events in 2023. We are encouraged to see such growth in numbers attending the Fest events with a 50% increase from 2022. We are already making plans for the Fest from 5 to 12t October 2024 and we are looking forward to building on this year’s successes. That said, there is always room for improvement and we would welcome suggestions for new events and activities.”
Many of the event organisers attended a ‘thank-you’ event at the Brehon Hotel, Killarney, courtesy of the Kerry Volunteer Centre to coincide with the annual International Volunteer Day, December 5.
The Kerry Mental Health and Wellbeing Fest was organised by an interagency steering group made up of local agencies that support wellbeing in our community.
The organising committee is a collaboration between Connecting for Life Kerry, Healthy Kerry, Kerry County Council, Kerry Recreation & Sports Partnership, the HSE, NEWKD, SKDP, Kerry Mental Health Association, Jigsaw Kerry, Munster Technological University/Kerry, KDYS, Kerry Volunteer Centre and Family Resource Centres throughout the county.