News
Predicting the future

By Michael O’Connor
I received some bad news over the last few weeks, and it has changed my perspective on a few things.
One thing I realised is that it's the things you never see coming that truly impact your life.
We spend our days worrying about the obvious risks, and then our lives are upended by an event we could never have predicted.
This is true across so many aspects of life.
Investing is no different.
Much of my day job is focused on what happens next.
Are we headed for a recession, will the stock market crash, and how much will property prices fall?
These are all pressing questions, but these attempts to predict the future can be soul-destroying when the future is so hard to predict.
History is an endless stream of reasonable predictions upended by unforeseeable surprises.
In 2001, as we focused on the debt crisis in Europe, two planes struck the Twin Towers. In less than 90 minutes, the world changed in a way that was simply impossible to predict.
In 2020, as we focused on the implications of Trade Wars, a virus shut down the global economy, and 20 million Americans lost their jobs in a single week.
And on and on.
Paying attention to the known unknowns is essential, but it’s risks that we don't see coming that truly define us.
No preparation, no protection, maximum destruction.
So, if the surprises are what really move the needle, why do we spend so much time trying to predict the future?
Simple put, it helps us worry less.
Building a vision of the future and convincing ourselves it will play out offers unrivalled piece of mind - a sense of control in an entirely uncontrollable world.
The warm cozy hug of certainty is hard to resist.
Despite the allure, however, we must ask ourselves; why obsess over predicting the exact path when the probability of us getting it exactly right is so low? Surely this is an obvious waste of time and resources?
So how can we better allocate resources?
Focus on the bigger picture
Instead of arguing over the minutiae, we need to focus on the bigger picture.
So many risks could play out over the short term.
Inflation runs higher, and interest rates pull down stock market returns.
The real estate market falters, creating economic ripple effects;
Energy shortages
A new COVID strain
The point is, there is always risk.
History is just one thing after another.
There is never a utopian state of calm, but over the long run, humans have prevailed.
In the face of wars, depressions and pandemics, people have become more productive.
We have continued to innovate and create products and companies that are more and more profitable over time.
This is the detail we often fail to see - the glimmer of light in a dark room.
Our ability to adapt and overcome over time is undisputed.
So, instead of trying to predict exactly what happens next, trust that we will prevail over time and focus on the larger trends.
What innovations will inspire the next generation of profitable companies? How will changing demographics change the world?
You will never get it 100% right but focusing on the stuff that really matters certainly improves your odds.
To learn what companies to invest in and to get direct access to my personal investment portfolio go to www.theislandinvestor.com.
News
Final delivery as DJ retires
By Michelle Crean There’s hardly a Killarney home he hasn’t been to – but now DJ O’Driscoll has stood down from his duties. Friday night marked delivery driver DJ’s retirement […]

By Michelle Crean
There’s hardly a Killarney home he hasn’t been to – but now DJ O’Driscoll has stood down from his duties.
Friday night marked delivery driver DJ’s retirement from the Killarney branch of Corcoran’s Furniture & Carpets, a position he has held for the last 15 years.
On Friday night, colleagues from all three Corcoran’s Furniture & Carpets stores gathered in the Killarney Height’s Hotel. DJ was also joined by his daughter and her partner for the special night.
“After almost 15 years of steadfast work with Corcoran’s, DJ has been a constant pillar of support for his colleagues and has helped the company go from strength to strength,” owner Kieran Corcoran said.
“Corcoran’s would like to wish DJ the very best of luck for the future and hoping that he enjoys his retirement. Many thanks to Killarney Height’s Hotel for hosting the staff night on Friday. A great night was had by all!”
News
Rowers pull together for Order of Malta
Members of Flesk Valley Rowing Club had a strenuous but successful morning on Sunday when they collectively rowed the distance from Malin Head to Mizen Head. And it was all […]

Members of Flesk Valley Rowing Club had a strenuous but successful morning on Sunday when they collectively rowed the distance from Malin Head to Mizen Head.
And it was all done indoors on rowing machines in support of the Killarney Order of Malta.
Just before 11am the Valley armada ‘left shore’, and approximately 40 members aged from 12 to 50ish set to their task with enthusiasm. By midday someone reckoned that Barack Obama’s Plaza had been reached but unfortunately there was no stop for tea, just a splash of holy water, a mouthful of Lucozade and a few jelly babies for the lucky ones!
As the kilometres clicked slowly by the temperature started to rise and the cry went up from the gasping veterans to open all the doors!
No such problems for the junior relay crews who had a fantastic morning rowing, laughing, and racing each other all the way to the finish.
The junior members who took on the half-marathon distance individually were amazing throughout and got stronger as the finish line came into view.
“We’re delighted with how the morning went,” Tadhg Kelly from Flesk Valley said.
“There was a great atmosphere in the venue, and we are grateful to all the parents and Flesk Valley supporters who came along to encourage our young and not-so-young rowers. It was great too to see the members of the Order of Malta in attendance to offer their support, and the club would like to thank everyone who donated on the day.”
Tadhg also expressed his thanks to the underage coaches and committee members for looking after everyone during the event. He especially wanted to mention everyone at Celtic Steps and the Killarney Racecourse for facilitating the club and Workmens Rowing Club and Glenflesk GAA for the use of their equipment.
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