News
Predicting the future
By Michael O’Connor
I received some bad news over the last few weeks, and it has changed my perspective on a few things.
One thing I realised is that it's the things you never see coming that truly impact your life.
We spend our days worrying about the obvious risks, and then our lives are upended by an event we could never have predicted.
This is true across so many aspects of life.
Investing is no different.
Much of my day job is focused on what happens next.
Are we headed for a recession, will the stock market crash, and how much will property prices fall?
These are all pressing questions, but these attempts to predict the future can be soul-destroying when the future is so hard to predict.
History is an endless stream of reasonable predictions upended by unforeseeable surprises.
In 2001, as we focused on the debt crisis in Europe, two planes struck the Twin Towers. In less than 90 minutes, the world changed in a way that was simply impossible to predict.
In 2020, as we focused on the implications of Trade Wars, a virus shut down the global economy, and 20 million Americans lost their jobs in a single week.
And on and on.
Paying attention to the known unknowns is essential, but it’s risks that we don't see coming that truly define us.
No preparation, no protection, maximum destruction.
So, if the surprises are what really move the needle, why do we spend so much time trying to predict the future?
Simple put, it helps us worry less.
Building a vision of the future and convincing ourselves it will play out offers unrivalled piece of mind - a sense of control in an entirely uncontrollable world.
The warm cozy hug of certainty is hard to resist.
Despite the allure, however, we must ask ourselves; why obsess over predicting the exact path when the probability of us getting it exactly right is so low? Surely this is an obvious waste of time and resources?
So how can we better allocate resources?
Focus on the bigger picture
Instead of arguing over the minutiae, we need to focus on the bigger picture.
So many risks could play out over the short term.
Inflation runs higher, and interest rates pull down stock market returns.
The real estate market falters, creating economic ripple effects;
Energy shortages
A new COVID strain
The point is, there is always risk.
History is just one thing after another.
There is never a utopian state of calm, but over the long run, humans have prevailed.
In the face of wars, depressions and pandemics, people have become more productive.
We have continued to innovate and create products and companies that are more and more profitable over time.
This is the detail we often fail to see - the glimmer of light in a dark room.
Our ability to adapt and overcome over time is undisputed.
So, instead of trying to predict exactly what happens next, trust that we will prevail over time and focus on the larger trends.
What innovations will inspire the next generation of profitable companies? How will changing demographics change the world?
You will never get it 100% right but focusing on the stuff that really matters certainly improves your odds.
To learn what companies to invest in and to get direct access to my personal investment portfolio go to www.theislandinvestor.com.
Interview conducted by Aodhagán Ó Súilleabháin, Cormac Flanagan, and Ryan Twomey.
Name: Kieran O’Leary – Entrepreneur and Killarney businessman.
Year of Graduation: 2005
Occupation: I would be the Jack of all trades and the master of none. I am involved in the hospitality industry. I have Corkery’s Bar, Revive Café, Ruckus Café and I’m a part of Integrity gym, so I do a lot of coaching. The passion by me would be probably in the fitness industry, because I played at a high enough sporting level and that’s come to an end now so I’m kind of concentrating on the coaching early mornings, hospitality day and evening and I have a young family as well so that’s obviously the biggest priority of all.
Could you describe a typical day for you?
I wake up at 5.30 and I am in the Gym for 6am. I work with clients till 8.30 – 9:00am. I then have school drop off, check the stock in the cafes and open Corkery’s. I kind of float around all day, kind of just helping where I can, and then evening time is probably the most hectic, at home, the kids might have football, well the young fella has football, he does a bit of Jiu-Jitsu, and dinner, stop, start, repeat the following day. I work hard, when you’re self-employed it can be difficult, but I try to get down time on Sundays or maybe Wednesdays.
What drew you to St Brendan’s as a school?
It was the sports that kind of drew me. The past pupils that I would have known from the sports clubs and would have seen their careers progress. It’s renowned, the history behind the Sem is unbelievable. I wasn’t really going anywhere else. The history behind it, the stories that come out of it, the people that have progressed and done so well in life. I don’t mean success by wealth, they seem to be happy in their professional life, happy with their life decisions and I suppose the Sem has a huge part playing in that.
Would you have kept in contact with any teachers?
Even now you see older teachers that may be retired or are even still there, they still have a bit of time for you, and they’ll stand in the street and say how are you getting on? We live in a small town, where everyone knows kind of everyone’s business to such an extent, so I think just the camaraderie, friendships and like the great times we had, I’ll always remember that.
Would you have kept in contact with your classmates?
The friends I made. They are lifelong friends. We were lucky enough to be a part of a good few sporting teams, and we would have progressed through the Kerry GAA side of things, and then there’s a lot of them working around here, a few of them abroad, but you’d have your core five or six fellas that you still stay in contact with. Outside of that if you saw past students of the school around the town, of course you’d stop and talk to them.
Were there any specific academic programmes or teaching methods at the school that helped you succeed in what you’re in today?
I didn’t apply myself the way I’d like to which is kind of a regret, but I did Business Studies with Joanna Ryan, she was a very good teacher. I went on to do business which I didn’t complete in IT Tralee, and funnily enough, then I got involved in the business side of things, so it’s funny how things work out. Just because you mightn’t do the best Leaving Cert doesn’t mean that you’re a failure, there’s always an opportunity around the corner and if you’re willing to apply yourself in any shape, way or form then you’ll succeed. It’s all about the mindset, discipline and as I said, my mindset was GAA, maybe even soccer related when I was that age, I could see nothing else, I was a bit blinkered, but as you broaden your horizons as you get a bit older, more mature you realise there’s different ways to go about your goals.
Can you share an example of how a teacher or staff member made a meaningful impact on your growth.
I’d say Seamus Grealy to be honest, because he is an excellent teacher. He was a soccer coach and he would have seen the potential in me and even though the application mightn’t have been there at times. He still persisted and gave me that chance to try and achieve the best possible grade I could within the Leaving Cert year. I would have done honours English even though my mother and father were saying “What are you doing?, you know, because I hadn’t the work done or whatever. The fact that he gave me that kind of TLC. I needed, that kind of arm around the shoulder, to say, listen there’s more in you, try your best, and as you know he can be firm as well, I just found him pretty good to deal with.
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