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Pandemic policy changes have left us with skewed data figures

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By Michael O’Connor

They say history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes - at this point however, even the rhyming has stopped.

The pandemic policy changes have left us with skewed data figures, manipulated comp stats and a remarkably unfamiliar backdrop resulting in immeasurable uncertainty amongst investors across the globe.

During times like this, it is best to break complex problems down to their simplest forms and concentrate solely on the most crucial variables.

And the most crucial variables in this case are inflation and Fed policy.

An infinite number of potential outcomes are possible over the coming months, but all will be derived based on the aggressiveness of future Fed adjustments and the persistence of inflation.

There will always be risk

There is no perfect scenario here. The inflation we are experiencing is the by-product of an overheating economy.

The cumulative net worth of US Households is now almost $150 Trillion, $80 Trillion more than it was 10 years ago. The US labour market currently boasts two jobs for every one person looking for work, and corporate earnings jumped 35% in 2021, the largest increase since 1950.

Simply put, there is more money in the system than ever before.

The supply side issues have been well documented, but if inflation is to be quelled, then the demand side of the equation needs to be solved.

This is where the Fed’s tightening cycle comes in.

The Fed cannot improve supply issues, but they can negatively impact demand by dampening the labour market and decreasing the amount of capital in the systems through higher interest rates.

This tighter monetary policy is expected to bring inflation under control, but as the Fed increases the speed of rate hikes, the odds of economic contraction also increase.

In short, the goldilocks scenario of a gradual decline in inflation while maintaining labour market strength, household wealth and corporate profits, remains a pipe dream.

To strip inflation out of the system, a period of economic contraction is a necessary evil.

Crucially, this contraction does not need to lead to a crippling recession or anything of the sort. The level of contraction we experience will depend solely on the Fed’s ability to strike a balance between cooling inflation and maintaining demand.

Only time will tell if they can successfully thread the needle.

Jumping back in

Before declaring an all-clear for stocks, investors need to believe we are at the peak of policy tightening and inflationary pressure.

Certainly, we are seeing signs of improvement from an inflationary standpoint. For example, wheat prices are now lower than at the beginning of the war in Ukraine - another showcase of the unpredictability of markets.

With that said, one crucial paradox remains. Investors want interest rates to fall so stocks can rise, but any fall in interest rates is unlikely if stocks rally, somewhat capping the recent upside.

Make a plan

As always, I encourage a long-term focus. Investors will be better served focusing on the bull market opportunity on the other side rather than overemphasising what may be left in the bear market.

Those looking to take advantage of any potential upside need to get their house in order. You need to take the time to develop a clear picture of what your allocation will look like, create a watchlist of preferred names and know your entry points.

Scrambling together a plan after the fact is a sure-fire way to ensure you miss the very opportunity you were trying to capture.

Learn more at

https://www.theislandinvestor.com/

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Paralympic legend Jason Smyth visits St Brendan’s

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Paralympic legend Jason Smyth visits St Brendan’s


World renowned Paralympian and world record holder Jason Smyth paid a visit to St Brendan’s College on Wednesday afternoon as part of a high profile visit to Killarney.


The six time Paralympic gold medallist spoke to second year students from St Brendan’s College, alongside students from neighbouring schools St Brigid’s Presentation Secondary School and Killarney Community College.
The interactive talk and interview took place ahead of World Sight Day, with the legendary sprinter sharing his personal journey with Stargardt disease, a genetic eye condition that left him legally blind at eight years old.
The Derry native, who holds the world record as the fastest Paralympian on earth over 100 metres, offered inspiring insights into overcoming physical adversity and achieving success at the highest level of world sport.
The school visit formed the opening leg of his Killarney schedule before he took centre stage later on Wednesday evening at The Killarney Plaza Hotel & Spa.
Smyth headlined An Evening with Paralympian Jason Smyth, an event organised by the Killarney Chamber of Tourism and Commerce as part of its winter schedule, sponsored by AIB.

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Deerpark Retail Park placed on market for fifteen million euro

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Deerpark Retail Park in Killarney has officially been placed on the market with a guide price in excess of 15.4 million euro, excluding VAT.

International real estate firm Cushman & Wakefield has been appointed as the sole sales agent to handle the high-profile commercial property sale on behalf of its current owner, Investcorp.

Investcorp, a global investment management firm headquartered in Bahrain, had previously acquired the prominent shopping complex.


The sale represents one of the largest commercial property offerings to launch in County Kerry this year.

Located roughly 1.3 kilometres west of Killarney town centre, the scheme enjoys strong regional connectivity and sits adjacent to independently owned operations including a Tesco Extra store, a Tesco petrol filling station, JYSK, and Aldi.


Constructed in 2006, the development extends across approximately 10,482 square metres, or 112,835 square feet.

The scheme comprises a mix of modern retail warehouse units and a complementary neighbourhood centre, offering 13 individual units in total with Part Open and Part Bulky Use planning permission.

The units range in size from 94.6 square metres up to 1,994.9 square metres. Visitors have access to approximately 248 customer parking spaces across the commercial grounds.

The park is currently 100 per cent occupied by a strong line-up of established national and international brands.

Key retail tenants include Marks & Spencer, Boots, DID Electrical, Maxi Zoo, and Mountain Warehouse.

The neighbourhood centre element accommodates service and convenience operators such as Costa Coffee, Card Factory, and Salon B.

The first-floor accommodation is fully let to Peak Performance Academy, which provides additional rental diversification.

Additionally, the scheme benefits from an agreement with Tesla to operate eight electric vehicle charging bays within the customer car park.


Commercial figures show that the property generates a total current rental income of 1,326,458 euro per annum, with a weighted average unexpired lease term of 4.45 years to break options and 6.46 years to lease expiry.

Cushman & Wakefield noted that the quoted guide price of 15.4 million euro reflects a net initial yield of 7.83 per cent, assuming standard purchaser costs of 9.96 per cent.

The selling agents highlighted that the fully occupied asset offers investors an attractive income profile alongside scope for additional income generation through parking commercialisation.

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