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My predications for 2023

Published

2 years ago

on

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Investing is a game of probability, not certainty.

Nothing is ever guaranteed. Unknown unknowns lurk around every corner, and the game is always changing.

However, while you will never be able to predict exactly what’s going to happen in the future, current data does shine a light on what lies ahead for markets in 2023.

Here is my summarised view on the most probable direction for markets in 2023 and how to position your portfolio accordingly.

Inflation vs. recession

In my view, an overly aggressive Central Bank policy will lead to a painful period for stocks as company earnings and nominal growth falls, bringing the US into recession. This will force a necessary pivot from the Central Banks, creating buying opportunities in equities that will have already front-run the economic contraction ahead.

Stocks

As with 2022, stocks which provide an attractive income appear more reasonably valued. Investors remain less likely to fund the growth story of pre-earnings companies as a potential recession looms.

Any overall underweight to stocks in the first half of the year with a material tilt towards companies with strong and stable balance sheets should provide portfolio resilience.

More specifically, financials (Net Interest Margin improvement and balance sheet strength) and healthcare (ageing population demographics) are preferred from a sector standpoint.Bonds

The brutal repricing that came as a result of the Federal Reserve’s efforts to tame the inflation beast have brought short term treasuries back to between 4% and 5%.
For the first time in a long time, the rotation into bonds is an attractive trade. For risk-averse savers, this is a game changer as the endless search for yield is over.

I have increased my allocation to short-term Government bonds given the current interest rates on offer and uncertainties elsewhere.Real Estate

The ripple of weaker housing activity has already begun.
In the US existing home sales have dropped dramatically with November clocking the worst decline since February 2008 - down 28.4%.

This is hardly surprising given that we condensed 10-years of growth into an 18-month period as house prices jumped 40% since 2020.

While I believe there is more downside in the real estate market (~10%) as a result of the higher mortgage rate environment, the overwhelming lack of supply remains the most supportive factor. We simply didn’t build enough homes following the last housing crash to meet the demand coming from millennials reaching their household formation years.

This generational undersupply means ludicrous prices are here to stay, but the price surges we have experienced in recent years are over.What does all this mean for you?

It’s not all bad news. Valuations are in a much stronger position relative to this time last year. Once the earnings decline is fully reflected, long-term opportunities will emerge for those ready and willing to put their money on the table.

Until then, tactically chose a combination of short-term bonds and defensive equity sectors that can survive a challenging economic environment while still providing income to your portfolios. Brighter days are ahead, just not quite yet.

Now is the perfect time to set up your strategic long-term investment plan. Don't wait until the market has moved to think about your investments.

For those looking for independent investment consulting advice, please don’t hesitate to reach out.

Find my full list of 2023 predications on my website by scanning the QR code above. 

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Kerry coaches firm honoured with All-Ireland title

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23 hours ago

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14 June 2025

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Kerry Coaches named All-Ireland All-Star Bus & Coach Company of the Year 2025

Killarney-based Kerry Coaches has been named All-Ireland All-Star Bus & Coach Company of the Year 2025 by the All-Ireland Business Foundation. This recognition also marks Kerry Coaches’ second Business All-Star Accreditation, having received its first accolade in 2024.

Founded in 1957, Kerry Coaches has established itself as a leader in the Irish transport industry, known for its exceptional service and commitment to quality.  With a fleet of over 100 modern chauffeur vehicles, mini-buses and coaches the company provides a wide range of transport services, including corporate travel, executive golf transportation and bespoke tours throughout Ireland and Scotland.

 Speaking on the achievement, Mike Buckley, Director of Kerry Coaches, said:

“We are incredibly proud to receive this national recognition from the All-Ireland Business Foundation. It’s a true reflection of the dedication, professionalism, and passion shown by every member of our team. Our mission has always been to deliver exceptional travel experiences, and this award reaffirms our position as a leader in the industry.”

Announcing the news of Kerry Coaches’ achievement, Deputy Chair of AIBF’s Adjudication Board, Kieran Ring, said: “It is my pleasure to commend Kerry Coaches for its outstanding performance in achieving the Business All-Star accreditation. After a thorough review, the firm has been honoured with All-Ireland All-Star Bus & Coach Company Of The Year 2025. Kerry Coaches is distinguished not only for its superior fleet but also for its exceptional team, some of whom have been with the company for over 25 years. This seasoned team brings an extraordinary level of knowledge and expertise, ensuring that every client experience is exceptional.”         

Managing   Director   of   the   All-Ireland   Business   Foundation, Kapil   Khanna, said:  “The accreditation, which is now held by over 700 firms, is needed by the thousands of small and medium businesses which operate to their own standards but have nothing to measure them by.”

He   added: “We   evaluate   a   company’s   background, trustworthiness and performance, and we speak to customers, employees and vendors. We also anonymously approach the company as a customer and report back on the experience. The business goes through at least two interviews and is scored on every part of the process against set metrics.”

About The All-Ireland Business Foundation

The All-Ireland Business Foundation is an autonomous national accreditation body tasked with enterprise development and the promotion of Best-in-Class Irish businesses.

As the accreditation body for the Business All-Star mark, the AIBF recognises Best-In-Class Irish 

businesses.   Companies   that   merit   recognition   based   on   an   independent   audit   of   their performance, reputation, and customer-centricity.

Business All-Star Accreditation Is The Nation’s Symbol Of Trust. Currently, there are over 700 

companies that are accredited by AIBF. Since 2014, over 5000 companies have participated in their programmes.

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Trainee Blacksmith forging a career at Muckross Traditional Farms

Published

1 day ago

on

14 June 2025

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Phillip Pestor-Young, a trainee blacksmith from County Kildare, is currently gaining experience under Master Blacksmith Tom Allison at Muckross Traditional Farms.

Pestor-Young is enrolled in the All-Ireland Heritage Skills Programme. This programme is a cross-border educational initiative by the King’s Foundation, The Heritage Council, and the Historic Environment Division in Northern Ireland. 

Prior to moving to Ireland in 2019, Phillip trained as an engineer and fabricator in the UK. He is now developing his blacksmithing skills in Kerry.

For more information on the program, visit https://kings-foundation.org/study/all-ireland-heritage-skills-programme/.

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