Connect with us

News

My predications for 2023

Published

on

0248232_Mike_Stocks.jpg

Investing is a game of probability, not certainty.

Nothing is ever guaranteed. Unknown unknowns lurk around every corner, and the game is always changing.

However, while you will never be able to predict exactly what’s going to happen in the future, current data does shine a light on what lies ahead for markets in 2023.

Here is my summarised view on the most probable direction for markets in 2023 and how to position your portfolio accordingly.

Inflation vs. recession

In my view, an overly aggressive Central Bank policy will lead to a painful period for stocks as company earnings and nominal growth falls, bringing the US into recession. This will force a necessary pivot from the Central Banks, creating buying opportunities in equities that will have already front-run the economic contraction ahead.

Stocks

As with 2022, stocks which provide an attractive income appear more reasonably valued. Investors remain less likely to fund the growth story of pre-earnings companies as a potential recession looms.

Any overall underweight to stocks in the first half of the year with a material tilt towards companies with strong and stable balance sheets should provide portfolio resilience.

More specifically, financials (Net Interest Margin improvement and balance sheet strength) and healthcare (ageing population demographics) are preferred from a sector standpoint.Bonds

The brutal repricing that came as a result of the Federal Reserve’s efforts to tame the inflation beast have brought short term treasuries back to between 4% and 5%.
For the first time in a long time, the rotation into bonds is an attractive trade. For risk-averse savers, this is a game changer as the endless search for yield is over.

I have increased my allocation to short-term Government bonds given the current interest rates on offer and uncertainties elsewhere.Real Estate

The ripple of weaker housing activity has already begun.
In the US existing home sales have dropped dramatically with November clocking the worst decline since February 2008 - down 28.4%.

This is hardly surprising given that we condensed 10-years of growth into an 18-month period as house prices jumped 40% since 2020.

While I believe there is more downside in the real estate market (~10%) as a result of the higher mortgage rate environment, the overwhelming lack of supply remains the most supportive factor. We simply didn’t build enough homes following the last housing crash to meet the demand coming from millennials reaching their household formation years.

This generational undersupply means ludicrous prices are here to stay, but the price surges we have experienced in recent years are over.What does all this mean for you?

It’s not all bad news. Valuations are in a much stronger position relative to this time last year. Once the earnings decline is fully reflected, long-term opportunities will emerge for those ready and willing to put their money on the table.

Until then, tactically chose a combination of short-term bonds and defensive equity sectors that can survive a challenging economic environment while still providing income to your portfolios. Brighter days are ahead, just not quite yet.

Now is the perfect time to set up your strategic long-term investment plan. Don't wait until the market has moved to think about your investments.

For those looking for independent investment consulting advice, please don’t hesitate to reach out.

Find my full list of 2023 predications on my website by scanning the QR code above. 

Continue Reading
Advertisement

News

Trilogy of comedy on offer by Dóchas Drama

By Sean Moriarty Dóchas Drama Group will present a series of three short comedy plays next week. All three plays are written and produced by Dóchas and will be acted […]

Published

on

0249784_DSC20101.jpg

By Sean Moriarty

Dóchas Drama Group will present a series of three short comedy plays next week.

All three plays are written and produced by Dóchas and will be acted out by the group’s members.

The opening act, ‘Flossing Around’ is written by Ger Madden and directed by Brian Bowler.

“A woman has an innate fear of the dentist. We go on the journey with her as she faces her fears, with hilarious consequences,” explained the group’s Liz Ryan.

This will be followed by ‘Faraway Hills’ which is written by Mary Quirke and directed by Michael Mills.
It is a tongue in cheek look at family life.

“A son wants to get away from small town life. His mother wants to keep him at home but his father can’t wait to see the back of him,” added Liz, who plays the mother in this short play.

Brain Bowler wrote the third instalment called ‘A Little Visitor’ which is directed by Ryan Jones.

“There are lots of misunderstandings when a hypochondriac visits a group of doctors who have other things on the their minds,” added Liz.

The run, which will feature all three performances each night, starts Wednesday next week and continues Thursday and Friday (February 8 to 10) at the Killarney Avenue Hotel. Tickets are €10 and are available at the door.

Attachments

Continue Reading

News

Killarney secures three gold medals in national business awards

Three hotels in Killarney have won gold medals at the Virgin Media Business Gold Medal Awards. Now in its 33rd year, the awards the best of the best in the […]

Published

on

0249859_gsh_award_003.JPG

Three hotels in Killarney have won gold medals at the Virgin Media Business Gold Medal Awards.

Now in its 33rd year, the awards the best of the best in the hotel and catering sectors across the country.

This year, judges received over 460 entries from 150 hotels, guest houses, country houses, restaurants, cafés, bars and catering companies from around Ireland.

“An important factor in the Gold Medal Awards is the credibility and impartial nature of the judging process. Every property that undergoes this process is subject to benchmarking against a strict set of criteria and a blind site inspection conducted by the judging panel,” said an event organiser.

“This panel comprises respected industry experts from across the hospitality, culinary and catering sectors.”

Three Killarney hotels took top awards in different categories at the awards ceremony held at the Galmont Hotel and Spa in Galway on Tuesday night.

The Great Southern Hotel was named as the best Business and Conference Hotel in Ireland.

“To be recognised among the greatest hotels in Ireland is a marvellous achievement for Great Southern. It is fantastic news and has provided all our staff with a little morale boost. Our Business & Conference partners and customers are extremely important to us with some relationships in place annually for over 30 years. Receiving this recognition for the service we provide is a fantastic achievement and testament to the incredible work of our outstanding staff,” said Michael Jacobi Managing Director said.

The best front of house team award went the staff at the Aghadoe Heights Hotel and Spa.

In the Hotel Casual Dining Experience category the Dunloe Hotel and Gardens came out on top.

Attachments

Continue Reading

Trending