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My predications for 2023

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Investing is a game of probability, not certainty.

Nothing is ever guaranteed. Unknown unknowns lurk around every corner, and the game is always changing.

However, while you will never be able to predict exactly what’s going to happen in the future, current data does shine a light on what lies ahead for markets in 2023.

Here is my summarised view on the most probable direction for markets in 2023 and how to position your portfolio accordingly.

Inflation vs. recession

In my view, an overly aggressive Central Bank policy will lead to a painful period for stocks as company earnings and nominal growth falls, bringing the US into recession. This will force a necessary pivot from the Central Banks, creating buying opportunities in equities that will have already front-run the economic contraction ahead.

Stocks

As with 2022, stocks which provide an attractive income appear more reasonably valued. Investors remain less likely to fund the growth story of pre-earnings companies as a potential recession looms.

Any overall underweight to stocks in the first half of the year with a material tilt towards companies with strong and stable balance sheets should provide portfolio resilience.

More specifically, financials (Net Interest Margin improvement and balance sheet strength) and healthcare (ageing population demographics) are preferred from a sector standpoint.Bonds

The brutal repricing that came as a result of the Federal Reserve’s efforts to tame the inflation beast have brought short term treasuries back to between 4% and 5%.
For the first time in a long time, the rotation into bonds is an attractive trade. For risk-averse savers, this is a game changer as the endless search for yield is over.

I have increased my allocation to short-term Government bonds given the current interest rates on offer and uncertainties elsewhere.Real Estate

The ripple of weaker housing activity has already begun.
In the US existing home sales have dropped dramatically with November clocking the worst decline since February 2008 - down 28.4%.

This is hardly surprising given that we condensed 10-years of growth into an 18-month period as house prices jumped 40% since 2020.

While I believe there is more downside in the real estate market (~10%) as a result of the higher mortgage rate environment, the overwhelming lack of supply remains the most supportive factor. We simply didn’t build enough homes following the last housing crash to meet the demand coming from millennials reaching their household formation years.

This generational undersupply means ludicrous prices are here to stay, but the price surges we have experienced in recent years are over.What does all this mean for you?

It’s not all bad news. Valuations are in a much stronger position relative to this time last year. Once the earnings decline is fully reflected, long-term opportunities will emerge for those ready and willing to put their money on the table.

Until then, tactically chose a combination of short-term bonds and defensive equity sectors that can survive a challenging economic environment while still providing income to your portfolios. Brighter days are ahead, just not quite yet.

Now is the perfect time to set up your strategic long-term investment plan. Don't wait until the market has moved to think about your investments.

For those looking for independent investment consulting advice, please don’t hesitate to reach out.

Find my full list of 2023 predications on my website by scanning the QR code above. 

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Missing Killarney chef located dead in UK

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Missing Killarney chef located dead in UK


A 34-year search for missing former Killarney chef Patrick (Patsy) O’Sullivan ended following confirmation that he was located deceased in the UK.


Patsy was 35 years old when last seen by relatives in Lombardstown, County Cork, during the Easter Bank Holiday weekend in April 1992. At the time of his disappearance, he was working as a chef in Waterville, having previously worked across several Killarney hotels. He was scheduled to attend a family Christening shortly after returning from Kerry, but never arrived.
Despite decades of public appeals, including features on RTÉ’s Crimecall, his location remained unknown.
Investigations revealed that Patsy moved to the UK and changed his name to Patrick Aldridge in 1995, adopting the surname of his partner who passed away in 2022. He passed away from natural causes on July 5, 2024, living just over an hour away from his brother who also passed away in the UK last year.
Speaking on Cork’s 96FM, his brother Jerry O’Sullivan confirmed the family finally received closure following renewed efforts led by Garda PJ Roche and investigating officers. He noted that while unanswered questions remain about why Patsy started over fresh, the family is grateful for the work that brought final answers.
An Garda Síochána confirmed the missing person case is closed and thanked the public for their assistance over the years.


IN MEMORY: Patrick (Patsy) O’Sullivan, a native of North Cork who worked as a chef in Killarney and Waterville, went missing in April 1992 and was located deceased in the UK. Photo: Garda Press Office.

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Speed cameras go live at Farranfore level crossing

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Speed cameras go live at Farranfore level crossing

An Garda Síochána, Iarnród Éireann, Transport Infrastructure Ireland, and Kerry County Council put new safety enforcement cameras into operation at the Farranfore level crossing this week.

The GoSafe system, which went live at 12pm on Tuesday, October 6, automatically detects vehicles running red lights or breaking the speed limit as they approach and cross the railway track.

Farranfore is only the second level crossing on the national rail network to feature the technology, following a trial at Merrion Gates in Dublin where driver compliance reached 99.7 per cent. Up to six crossing locations nationwide are slated to receive the units.

The system targets two distinct traffic violations. Proceeding past a stop line when red lights are flashing carries an automated Fixed Charge Notice of €80 and two penalty points, rising to five penalty points upon court conviction. Speeding violations trigger a €160 fine and three penalty points, which can increase to five points and fines up to €1,000 if prosecuted in court.

Iarnród Éireann highlighted excessive approach speed as a key safety factor at the Farranfore junction. Nationwide, 31 incidents involving vehicles or bicycles colliding with automated level crossing gates have occurred in 2026 to date, up from 23 in 2025.

Highlighting the risk to local road users, Road Safety Officer with Kerry County Council Declan Keogh said: : “The new safety cameras at Farranfore railway crossing serve as a dual-safety mechanism, for road users and for rail users and operators. I would urge all motorists to think twice before taking that chance to get across the railway line when the warning lights have activated and the barriers are lowering. All too often those chances have proved unsuccessful, with serious consequences.”

Iarnród Éireann Chief Executive Mary Considine noted that interfaces between road and rail traffic represent one of the primary safety risks on the network, adding that automated cameras encourage drivers to reduce speed and obey active signals.

Assistant Commissioner Ferry of the Garda National Roads Policing Bureau welcomed the joint venture, stating that technology-led enforcement will significantly assist in maintaining safety across shared transport networks.

50km/h zone enforced at Farranfore

Motorists traveling through Farranfore are reminded that the speed limit on the approach to and across the railway crossing is strictly 50km/h.

While automated safety systems enforce both signal compliance and vehicle speed, the 50km/h limit remains the maximum legal speed on the N22 section approaching the crossing gates.

The newly activated GoSafe cameras record vehicle speeds automatically in both directions. Any motorist detected exceeding the 50km/h threshold will automatically receive a €160 Fixed Charge Notice alongside three penalty points applied to their driving licence.

Local authorities and Gardaí advise drivers approaching Farranfore from both the Tralee and Killarney directions to adjust their driving speed early, monitor active signals, and prepare to stop safely when warning lights activate.

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