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My predications for 2023

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Investing is a game of probability, not certainty.

Nothing is ever guaranteed. Unknown unknowns lurk around every corner, and the game is always changing.

However, while you will never be able to predict exactly what’s going to happen in the future, current data does shine a light on what lies ahead for markets in 2023.

Here is my summarised view on the most probable direction for markets in 2023 and how to position your portfolio accordingly.

Inflation vs. recession

In my view, an overly aggressive Central Bank policy will lead to a painful period for stocks as company earnings and nominal growth falls, bringing the US into recession. This will force a necessary pivot from the Central Banks, creating buying opportunities in equities that will have already front-run the economic contraction ahead.

Stocks

As with 2022, stocks which provide an attractive income appear more reasonably valued. Investors remain less likely to fund the growth story of pre-earnings companies as a potential recession looms.

Any overall underweight to stocks in the first half of the year with a material tilt towards companies with strong and stable balance sheets should provide portfolio resilience.

More specifically, financials (Net Interest Margin improvement and balance sheet strength) and healthcare (ageing population demographics) are preferred from a sector standpoint.Bonds

The brutal repricing that came as a result of the Federal Reserve’s efforts to tame the inflation beast have brought short term treasuries back to between 4% and 5%.
For the first time in a long time, the rotation into bonds is an attractive trade. For risk-averse savers, this is a game changer as the endless search for yield is over.

I have increased my allocation to short-term Government bonds given the current interest rates on offer and uncertainties elsewhere.Real Estate

The ripple of weaker housing activity has already begun.
In the US existing home sales have dropped dramatically with November clocking the worst decline since February 2008 - down 28.4%.

This is hardly surprising given that we condensed 10-years of growth into an 18-month period as house prices jumped 40% since 2020.

While I believe there is more downside in the real estate market (~10%) as a result of the higher mortgage rate environment, the overwhelming lack of supply remains the most supportive factor. We simply didn’t build enough homes following the last housing crash to meet the demand coming from millennials reaching their household formation years.

This generational undersupply means ludicrous prices are here to stay, but the price surges we have experienced in recent years are over.What does all this mean for you?

It’s not all bad news. Valuations are in a much stronger position relative to this time last year. Once the earnings decline is fully reflected, long-term opportunities will emerge for those ready and willing to put their money on the table.

Until then, tactically chose a combination of short-term bonds and defensive equity sectors that can survive a challenging economic environment while still providing income to your portfolios. Brighter days are ahead, just not quite yet.

Now is the perfect time to set up your strategic long-term investment plan. Don't wait until the market has moved to think about your investments.

For those looking for independent investment consulting advice, please don’t hesitate to reach out.

Find my full list of 2023 predications on my website by scanning the QR code above. 

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St Brendan’s College: Voices from the Halls

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Interview conducted by Aodhagán Ó Súilleabháin, Cormac Flanagan, and Ryan Twomey.

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Name: Kieran O’Leary – Entrepreneur and Killarney businessman.
Year of Graduation: 2005

Occupation: I would be the Jack of all trades and the master of none. I am involved in the hospitality industry. I have Corkery’s Bar, Revive Café, Ruckus Café and I’m a part of Integrity gym, so I do a lot of coaching. The passion by me would be probably in the fitness industry, because I played at a high enough sporting level and that’s come to an end now so I’m kind of concentrating on the coaching early mornings, hospitality day and evening and I have a young family as well so that’s obviously the biggest priority of all.


Could you describe a typical day for you?
I wake up at 5.30 and I am in the Gym for 6am. I work with clients till 8.30 – 9:00am. I then have school drop off, check the stock in the cafes and open Corkery’s. I kind of float around all day, kind of just helping where I can, and then evening time is probably the most hectic, at home, the kids might have football, well the young fella has football, he does a bit of Jiu-Jitsu, and dinner, stop, start, repeat the following day. I work hard, when you’re self-employed it can be difficult, but I try to get down time on Sundays or maybe Wednesdays.

What drew you to St Brendan’s as a school?
It was the sports that kind of drew me. The past pupils that I would have known from the sports clubs and would have seen their careers progress. It’s renowned, the history behind the Sem is unbelievable. I wasn’t really going anywhere else. The history behind it, the stories that come out of it, the people that have progressed and done so well in life. I don’t mean success by wealth, they seem to be happy in their professional life, happy with their life decisions and I suppose the Sem has a huge part playing in that.


Would you have kept in contact with any teachers?
Even now you see older teachers that may be retired or are even still there, they still have a bit of time for you, and they’ll stand in the street and say how are you getting on? We live in a small town, where everyone knows kind of everyone’s business to such an extent, so I think just the camaraderie, friendships and like the great times we had, I’ll always remember that. 



Would you have kept in contact with your classmates?
The friends I made. They are lifelong friends. We were lucky enough to be a part of a good few sporting teams, and we would have progressed through the Kerry GAA side of things, and then there’s a lot of them working around here, a few of them abroad, but you’d have your core five or six fellas that you still stay in contact with. Outside of that if you saw past students of the school around the town, of course you’d stop and talk to them.


Were there any specific academic programmes or teaching methods at the school that helped you succeed in what you’re in today?
I didn’t apply myself the way I’d like to which is kind of a regret, but I did Business Studies with Joanna Ryan, she was a very good teacher. I went on to do business which I didn’t complete in IT Tralee, and funnily enough, then I got involved in the business side of things, so it’s funny how things work out. Just because you mightn’t do the best Leaving Cert doesn’t mean that you’re a failure, there’s always an opportunity around the corner and if you’re willing to apply yourself in any shape, way or form then you’ll succeed. It’s all about the mindset, discipline and as I said, my mindset was GAA, maybe even soccer related when I was that age, I could see nothing else, I was a bit blinkered, but as you broaden your horizons as you get a bit older, more mature you realise there’s different ways to go about your goals.




Can you share an example of how a teacher or staff member made a meaningful impact on your growth.
I’d say Seamus Grealy to be honest, because he is an excellent teacher. He was a soccer coach and he would have seen the potential in me and even though the application mightn’t have been there at times. He still persisted and gave me that chance to try and achieve the best possible grade I could within the Leaving Cert year.  I would have done honours English even though my mother and father were saying “What are you doing?, you know, because I hadn’t the work done or whatever. The fact that he gave me that kind of TLC. I needed, that kind of arm around the shoulder, to say, listen there’s more in you, try your best, and as you know he can be firm as well, I just found him pretty good to deal with. 

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Official launch of the Assess Ireland Rally of the Lakes set for April 11

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The official launch of the 2026 Assess Ireland Rally of the Lakes will take place at Gleneagle Hotel on Saturday, April 11.

The organising team will reveal key details of the upcoming event, including an up-to-date entry list and several new innovations for this year’s rally.

Representatives from three major championships will be in attendance: the NAPA Irish Tarmac Rally Championship, the GK Print Southern 4 Rally Championship, and the Kingdom of Kerry Rally Championship.

Local councillors and politicians will also be present to offer their formal backing to the event, which remains a significant economic driver for the region.

The launch begins at 5:00pm with a display of rally cars outside the hotel. Several local rally drivers will be on hand to meet fans, and an open invitation has been extended to all members of the public and rally enthusiasts to attend

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