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Don’t believe everything you hear

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By Michael O’Connor, theislandinvestor.com

A new year, a new market rally.

Lower inflation, a Chinese reopening boom and a resilient labour market resulted in the biggest January gain in the S&P 500 in eight years as Wall Street switched from cautious to confident at the drop of a hat.

In true market fashion, last year’s losers have turned into this year’s darlings. The Tech-heavy Nasdaq Index jumped almost 11% (now up over 17% at the time of writing).

Facebook for example is now up 110% following its 66% loss last year, Netflix is up 120% while Coinbase is up 140%.

Job losses

One of the major contributors to the current market run has been the continued strength in the labour market.

Despite headline news about countless lay-offs, we remain in one of the strongest labour markets in history.

In the US, 517,000 jobs were added in January - the largest monthly gain since last July.

The unemployment rate is now 3.4%, the lowest level since early 1969.

Tech lay-offs have been front and centre, but as always, there is far more to a story than the headline the media are pushing.

Yes, 1.5 million people lost their jobs in the US during December.

However, the crucial data point the media left out was that US employers hired 6.2 million people over the same time period.

In fact, despite the media focus, the ratio of lay-offs to hires are well above historical standards.
Ireland’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was at 4.4 percent in January well below the 5% from the same period a year previous.

Three points to note

Despite the struggles in the tech industry at the moment, it only represents a tiny proportion of the overall labour market. Job losses in tech have been more than offset by new job openings across airlines, hospitality and retail.

Even during periods of robust economic growth, employers subtracted hundreds of thousands - and sometimes millions - of jobs per month.

Data needs context

Yes, current tech cut backs are concerning but there is more to the story than just one data point. During the pandemic these companies pulled forward three years’ worth of demand into one. Consumer tech demand exploded. Head counts expanded rapidly. The pace was never going to be sustainable.

From its fiscal year-end in September 2019 to September 2022, the employee count at Amazon doubled, Microsoft’s rose 53%, Google parent Alphabet Inc.’s increased 57% and Facebook owner Meta’s ballooned 94%.

Wall Street Journal

A single data point never tells the whole story, but why let the truth get in the way of a good story eh?

The truth is, for now, hiring remains strong, and the volume of current job openings out there suggests hiring could remain strong in the months ahead.

Some leading indicators such as wage growth, temp roles and quit rates continue to fall, pointing towards the potential rise in unemployment numbers to com - but we are not there yet.

In my opinion we have reached ‘peak’ employment conditions. As the lag effects of tighter economic policy take hold, this labour market strength will start to show more signs of weakness, but we are slowing from a very strong positions. Don’t let the headline news send you into a frenzy just yet.

Find my full market outlook on www.theislandinvestor.com.

If you need help creating your own investment portfolio, just reach out to me at
mike@theislandinvestor.com or simply scan the QR code.

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Missing Killarney chef located dead in UK

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Missing Killarney chef located dead in UK


A 34-year search for missing former Killarney chef Patrick (Patsy) O’Sullivan ended following confirmation that he was located deceased in the UK.


Patsy was 35 years old when last seen by relatives in Lombardstown, County Cork, during the Easter Bank Holiday weekend in April 1992. At the time of his disappearance, he was working as a chef in Waterville, having previously worked across several Killarney hotels. He was scheduled to attend a family Christening shortly after returning from Kerry, but never arrived.
Despite decades of public appeals, including features on RTÉ’s Crimecall, his location remained unknown.
Investigations revealed that Patsy moved to the UK and changed his name to Patrick Aldridge in 1995, adopting the surname of his partner who passed away in 2022. He passed away from natural causes on July 5, 2024, living just over an hour away from his brother who also passed away in the UK last year.
Speaking on Cork’s 96FM, his brother Jerry O’Sullivan confirmed the family finally received closure following renewed efforts led by Garda PJ Roche and investigating officers. He noted that while unanswered questions remain about why Patsy started over fresh, the family is grateful for the work that brought final answers.
An Garda Síochána confirmed the missing person case is closed and thanked the public for their assistance over the years.


IN MEMORY: Patrick (Patsy) O’Sullivan, a native of North Cork who worked as a chef in Killarney and Waterville, went missing in April 1992 and was located deceased in the UK. Photo: Garda Press Office.

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Speed cameras go live at Farranfore level crossing

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Speed cameras go live at Farranfore level crossing

An Garda Síochána, Iarnród Éireann, Transport Infrastructure Ireland, and Kerry County Council put new safety enforcement cameras into operation at the Farranfore level crossing this week.

The GoSafe system, which went live at 12pm on Tuesday, October 6, automatically detects vehicles running red lights or breaking the speed limit as they approach and cross the railway track.

Farranfore is only the second level crossing on the national rail network to feature the technology, following a trial at Merrion Gates in Dublin where driver compliance reached 99.7 per cent. Up to six crossing locations nationwide are slated to receive the units.

The system targets two distinct traffic violations. Proceeding past a stop line when red lights are flashing carries an automated Fixed Charge Notice of €80 and two penalty points, rising to five penalty points upon court conviction. Speeding violations trigger a €160 fine and three penalty points, which can increase to five points and fines up to €1,000 if prosecuted in court.

Iarnród Éireann highlighted excessive approach speed as a key safety factor at the Farranfore junction. Nationwide, 31 incidents involving vehicles or bicycles colliding with automated level crossing gates have occurred in 2026 to date, up from 23 in 2025.

Highlighting the risk to local road users, Road Safety Officer with Kerry County Council Declan Keogh said: : “The new safety cameras at Farranfore railway crossing serve as a dual-safety mechanism, for road users and for rail users and operators. I would urge all motorists to think twice before taking that chance to get across the railway line when the warning lights have activated and the barriers are lowering. All too often those chances have proved unsuccessful, with serious consequences.”

Iarnród Éireann Chief Executive Mary Considine noted that interfaces between road and rail traffic represent one of the primary safety risks on the network, adding that automated cameras encourage drivers to reduce speed and obey active signals.

Assistant Commissioner Ferry of the Garda National Roads Policing Bureau welcomed the joint venture, stating that technology-led enforcement will significantly assist in maintaining safety across shared transport networks.

50km/h zone enforced at Farranfore

Motorists traveling through Farranfore are reminded that the speed limit on the approach to and across the railway crossing is strictly 50km/h.

While automated safety systems enforce both signal compliance and vehicle speed, the 50km/h limit remains the maximum legal speed on the N22 section approaching the crossing gates.

The newly activated GoSafe cameras record vehicle speeds automatically in both directions. Any motorist detected exceeding the 50km/h threshold will automatically receive a €160 Fixed Charge Notice alongside three penalty points applied to their driving licence.

Local authorities and Gardaí advise drivers approaching Farranfore from both the Tralee and Killarney directions to adjust their driving speed early, monitor active signals, and prepare to stop safely when warning lights activate.

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