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Don’t believe everything you hear

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2 years ago

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By Michael O’Connor, theislandinvestor.com

A new year, a new market rally.

Lower inflation, a Chinese reopening boom and a resilient labour market resulted in the biggest January gain in the S&P 500 in eight years as Wall Street switched from cautious to confident at the drop of a hat.

In true market fashion, last year’s losers have turned into this year’s darlings. The Tech-heavy Nasdaq Index jumped almost 11% (now up over 17% at the time of writing).

Facebook for example is now up 110% following its 66% loss last year, Netflix is up 120% while Coinbase is up 140%.

Job losses

One of the major contributors to the current market run has been the continued strength in the labour market.

Despite headline news about countless lay-offs, we remain in one of the strongest labour markets in history.

In the US, 517,000 jobs were added in January - the largest monthly gain since last July.

The unemployment rate is now 3.4%, the lowest level since early 1969.

Tech lay-offs have been front and centre, but as always, there is far more to a story than the headline the media are pushing.

Yes, 1.5 million people lost their jobs in the US during December.

However, the crucial data point the media left out was that US employers hired 6.2 million people over the same time period.

In fact, despite the media focus, the ratio of lay-offs to hires are well above historical standards.
Ireland’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was at 4.4 percent in January well below the 5% from the same period a year previous.

Three points to note

Despite the struggles in the tech industry at the moment, it only represents a tiny proportion of the overall labour market. Job losses in tech have been more than offset by new job openings across airlines, hospitality and retail.

Even during periods of robust economic growth, employers subtracted hundreds of thousands - and sometimes millions - of jobs per month.

Data needs context

Yes, current tech cut backs are concerning but there is more to the story than just one data point. During the pandemic these companies pulled forward three years’ worth of demand into one. Consumer tech demand exploded. Head counts expanded rapidly. The pace was never going to be sustainable.

From its fiscal year-end in September 2019 to September 2022, the employee count at Amazon doubled, Microsoft’s rose 53%, Google parent Alphabet Inc.’s increased 57% and Facebook owner Meta’s ballooned 94%.

Wall Street Journal

A single data point never tells the whole story, but why let the truth get in the way of a good story eh?

The truth is, for now, hiring remains strong, and the volume of current job openings out there suggests hiring could remain strong in the months ahead.

Some leading indicators such as wage growth, temp roles and quit rates continue to fall, pointing towards the potential rise in unemployment numbers to com - but we are not there yet.

In my opinion we have reached ‘peak’ employment conditions. As the lag effects of tighter economic policy take hold, this labour market strength will start to show more signs of weakness, but we are slowing from a very strong positions. Don’t let the headline news send you into a frenzy just yet.

Find my full market outlook on www.theislandinvestor.com.

If you need help creating your own investment portfolio, just reach out to me at
mike@theislandinvestor.com or simply scan the QR code.

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Kerry coaches firm honoured with All-Ireland title

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1 day ago

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14 June 2025

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Kerry Coaches named All-Ireland All-Star Bus & Coach Company of the Year 2025

Killarney-based Kerry Coaches has been named All-Ireland All-Star Bus & Coach Company of the Year 2025 by the All-Ireland Business Foundation. This recognition also marks Kerry Coaches’ second Business All-Star Accreditation, having received its first accolade in 2024.

Founded in 1957, Kerry Coaches has established itself as a leader in the Irish transport industry, known for its exceptional service and commitment to quality.  With a fleet of over 100 modern chauffeur vehicles, mini-buses and coaches the company provides a wide range of transport services, including corporate travel, executive golf transportation and bespoke tours throughout Ireland and Scotland.

 Speaking on the achievement, Mike Buckley, Director of Kerry Coaches, said:

“We are incredibly proud to receive this national recognition from the All-Ireland Business Foundation. It’s a true reflection of the dedication, professionalism, and passion shown by every member of our team. Our mission has always been to deliver exceptional travel experiences, and this award reaffirms our position as a leader in the industry.”

Announcing the news of Kerry Coaches’ achievement, Deputy Chair of AIBF’s Adjudication Board, Kieran Ring, said: “It is my pleasure to commend Kerry Coaches for its outstanding performance in achieving the Business All-Star accreditation. After a thorough review, the firm has been honoured with All-Ireland All-Star Bus & Coach Company Of The Year 2025. Kerry Coaches is distinguished not only for its superior fleet but also for its exceptional team, some of whom have been with the company for over 25 years. This seasoned team brings an extraordinary level of knowledge and expertise, ensuring that every client experience is exceptional.”         

Managing   Director   of   the   All-Ireland   Business   Foundation, Kapil   Khanna, said:  “The accreditation, which is now held by over 700 firms, is needed by the thousands of small and medium businesses which operate to their own standards but have nothing to measure them by.”

He   added: “We   evaluate   a   company’s   background, trustworthiness and performance, and we speak to customers, employees and vendors. We also anonymously approach the company as a customer and report back on the experience. The business goes through at least two interviews and is scored on every part of the process against set metrics.”

About The All-Ireland Business Foundation

The All-Ireland Business Foundation is an autonomous national accreditation body tasked with enterprise development and the promotion of Best-in-Class Irish businesses.

As the accreditation body for the Business All-Star mark, the AIBF recognises Best-In-Class Irish 

businesses.   Companies   that   merit   recognition   based   on   an   independent   audit   of   their performance, reputation, and customer-centricity.

Business All-Star Accreditation Is The Nation’s Symbol Of Trust. Currently, there are over 700 

companies that are accredited by AIBF. Since 2014, over 5000 companies have participated in their programmes.

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Trainee Blacksmith forging a career at Muckross Traditional Farms

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1 day ago

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14 June 2025

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Phillip Pestor-Young, a trainee blacksmith from County Kildare, is currently gaining experience under Master Blacksmith Tom Allison at Muckross Traditional Farms.

Pestor-Young is enrolled in the All-Ireland Heritage Skills Programme. This programme is a cross-border educational initiative by the King’s Foundation, The Heritage Council, and the Historic Environment Division in Northern Ireland. 

Prior to moving to Ireland in 2019, Phillip trained as an engineer and fabricator in the UK. He is now developing his blacksmithing skills in Kerry.

For more information on the program, visit https://kings-foundation.org/study/all-ireland-heritage-skills-programme/.

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