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The only certainty is uncertainty

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By Michael O’Connor   

"History is just one damn thing after another" - Arnold Toynbee

Late last week, the emergence of a new COVID-19 variant in South Africa sent shockwaves worldwide, upending what had been a reasonably quiet week for the stock market. On Friday last, a steep sell-off left the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq down 2.2% and 3.5%, respectively.

This 147th twist in the pandemic tale got me thinking about how much we think we know when really, we know nothing at all.

At the start of the year nobody would have predicted that 2020 would have played out the way it did. Very few would have predicted that 2021, with promising vaccines and a return to normality would have represented so little change, but here we are.

Everyone loves to pretend like they fully understand what this all means and what will happen next. I get it; who doesn’t love the warm cozy allure of certainty. We all want to exist in a world where we know what lies around the corner.

History is a perpetual stream of mistaken opinions and unpredictable outcomes, but the predictions won’t stop. People will cast their views with deluded certainty about what to expect next by extrapolating the current conditions out into the future, but the current conditions aren’t a constant, and the game is always changing.

Unfortunately, the reality is, nobody knows what’s next, and the sooner you can discard any naive sense of conviction, the easier it will be in both life and investing. While this statement may seem morbid on the surface, loosening our grip on our need for certainty can be liberating.

Remember, while it is important to have expectations and predictions, predictions are not fact, and you will be wrong. Not always, but you will be wrong, so try not to be overly tethered to your current version of the truth.

Lean into the uncertainty

Accepting that nothing is certain can often be cast as an impotent statement in a world obsessed with knowing all the answers.

In an industry where uncertainty is the ultimate enemy, telling investors to submit to it is often met with disdain, but accepting the inevitability of uncertainty is so important if you want to avoid going stir crazy as you try and hold for the long term.

Of course, discarding uncertainty is easier said than done. Worrying about factors beyond our control is an inherent part of the human condition. However, simply being aware that the game is not predictable and nobody truly knows the final outcome may help you reduce your craving for certainty.

My advice

Stop reaching for perfection in a world of constant uncertainty. Stop obsessing about making the right decision one hundred percent of the time. Even the best investors in history have had their fair share of howlers. Ultimately you just need to be right more often than you are wrong.

The solution

Create an investment portfolio centred around what you believe to be the most probable outcome based on available information and incorporate enough diversification to function as a buffer.

In a world where anything is possible, all you can do is focus on what is most probable, allow for a margin of error to support you when your assumed outcomes don’t play out and simply let go of the rest.

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Status Orange Weather Warning for Kerry

Met Éireann has issued two weather warnings for Kerry on Wednesday, 27 September, A Status Orange warning for heavy and intense rainfall is in place from 9am to 3pm while […]

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Met Éireann has issued two weather warnings for Kerry on Wednesday, 27 September,

A Status Orange warning for heavy and intense rainfall is in place from 9am to 3pm while a Status Yellow warning for strong and gusty winds is in place from 7am on Wednesday to 12am on Thursday.

Possible impacts and disruptions include difficult travelling conditions, localised and coastal flooding, power outages, fallen trees and branches and poor visibility.

Kerry County Council is advising members of the public to prepare for severe weather on Wednesday and to ensure that items vulnerable to high winds are stored away. The Council is also advising motorists to travel with extreme caution on Wednesday and to expect surface water and spot flooding on all routes.

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World Rally Champion Phil Mills’ Killarney visit

Former World co-driving champion Phil Mills will be one of the guests of honour at a special Killarney and District Motor Club event next month. The club is celebrating Prodrive’s […]

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Former World co-driving champion Phil Mills will be one of the guests of honour at a special Killarney and District Motor Club event next month.

The club is celebrating Prodrive’s association with the Rally of the Lakes on October 14.

The legendary British motorsport preparation firm was responsible for building some of the most iconic associated with the local rally.

The celebration, which will raise funds for the Jack and Jill Foundation, will be hosted by the voice of Irish motorsport Alan ‘Plum’ Tyndall.

Welshman Mills, who won the 2003 World Rally Championship, alongside Petter Solberg has confirmed his attendance at the Killarney Racecourse-based event.

He is just one of many superstars attending the showcase.
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“Accompanying the stars will be a collection of iconic Prodrive machinery, ranging from the BMW E30 M3, all the way through to the Subaru Group A and World Rally Cars the 1990s and early 2000s,” said Killarney and District Motor Club vice chairman and organiser Mike Shea.

“All proceeds of this event will go directly to the Jack & Jill foundation helping provide support and special care to children across the country and is a once in a lifetime event.”

This event is in association with: Lyons of Limerick; C.Wharton Tool Hire Ltd; BG Motors Ltd; Castleisland Tyre Centre; Aherns Motor Group; Reen’s Rathmore Peugeot; KC Print and Moriarty’s Central Car Sales

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