News
The only certainty is uncertainty
By Michael O’Connor
"History is just one damn thing after another" - Arnold Toynbee
Late last week, the emergence of a new COVID-19 variant in South Africa sent shockwaves worldwide, upending what had been a reasonably quiet week for the stock market. On Friday last, a steep sell-off left the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq down 2.2% and 3.5%, respectively.This 147th twist in the pandemic tale got me thinking about how much we think we know when really, we know nothing at all.
At the start of the year nobody would have predicted that 2020 would have played out the way it did. Very few would have predicted that 2021, with promising vaccines and a return to normality would have represented so little change, but here we are.
Everyone loves to pretend like they fully understand what this all means and what will happen next. I get it; who doesn’t love the warm cozy allure of certainty. We all want to exist in a world where we know what lies around the corner.
History is a perpetual stream of mistaken opinions and unpredictable outcomes, but the predictions won’t stop. People will cast their views with deluded certainty about what to expect next by extrapolating the current conditions out into the future, but the current conditions aren’t a constant, and the game is always changing.
Unfortunately, the reality is, nobody knows what’s next, and the sooner you can discard any naive sense of conviction, the easier it will be in both life and investing. While this statement may seem morbid on the surface, loosening our grip on our need for certainty can be liberating.
Remember, while it is important to have expectations and predictions, predictions are not fact, and you will be wrong. Not always, but you will be wrong, so try not to be overly tethered to your current version of the truth.
Lean into the uncertainty
Accepting that nothing is certain can often be cast as an impotent statement in a world obsessed with knowing all the answers.
In an industry where uncertainty is the ultimate enemy, telling investors to submit to it is often met with disdain, but accepting the inevitability of uncertainty is so important if you want to avoid going stir crazy as you try and hold for the long term.
Of course, discarding uncertainty is easier said than done. Worrying about factors beyond our control is an inherent part of the human condition. However, simply being aware that the game is not predictable and nobody truly knows the final outcome may help you reduce your craving for certainty.
My advice
Stop reaching for perfection in a world of constant uncertainty. Stop obsessing about making the right decision one hundred percent of the time. Even the best investors in history have had their fair share of howlers. Ultimately you just need to be right more often than you are wrong.
The solution
Create an investment portfolio centred around what you believe to be the most probable outcome based on available information and incorporate enough diversification to function as a buffer.
In a world where anything is possible, all you can do is focus on what is most probable, allow for a margin of error to support you when your assumed outcomes don’t play out and simply let go of the rest.
News
New local date for Hozier this summer
With over 22 billion global streams Hozier, whose other shows are completly sold out, has announced a new date in Killarney this summer. Not only will the Grammy-nominated, award-winning multi-platinum […]
With over 22 billion global streams Hozier, whose other shows are completly sold out, has announced a new date in Killarney this summer.
Not only will the Grammy-nominated, award-winning multi-platinum singer and songwriter, perform in Malahide Castle and The Academy, but he has announced a gig at the Gleneagle INEC Arena on June 27.
Driven by the thought-provoking quintuple-platinum anthem, ‘Take Me To Church’, ranked the 30th most listened to song on Spotify, the track is the 103rd song to ever achieve the rare milestone of Diamond certification and the highest certified solo Alternative single in RIAA history.
‘Take Me To Church’ has surpassed 2 billion streams, the only Irish artist to achieve this feat.
Hozier’s success hasn’t been confined to the UK and US with the album also achieving Multi-Platinum status in Belgium, Canada, Australia, Germany, France, Italy, Denmark, Ireland, Russia, Sweden, Poland, Switzerland, Austria and the Netherlands.
Major TV appearances have helped spread the gospel including stand-out appearances on Later with Jools, Jimmy Fallon , David Letterman, Saturday Night Live, Ellen, Jimmy Kimmel, and Graham Norton. Following a year of sold out shows and festival appearances across the US, Canada, Europe and Australia, VH1 crowned Hozier ‘Artist of the Year’ and he received the honours ‘Top Rock Artist’ and ‘Top Rock Songs’ at the 2015 Billboard Music Awards.
In addition, he scored nominations for ‘Song of the Year’ at the 57th Annual Grammy Awards at which he performed alongside Annie Lennox and ‘Favourite Artist – Alternative Rock’ at the American Music Awards.
He won BBC ‘Song of the Year’ and the coveted Ivor Novello award for ‘Song of The Year’.
As Hozier prepares to release his third album ‘Unreal Unearth’ in 2023, his 3-track EP ‘Eat Your Young’ was released on March 17 in honour of his birthday and St. Patrick’s Day.
Tickets for Hozier go on sale this Thursday at 9am.
News
First born Kerry Calf of the year is a girl!
The first born Kerry Calf of 2023 was born at Muckross National Park this week. Both mother and calf are doing very well. The rare and native bred is distinguished […]
The first born Kerry Calf of 2023 was born at Muckross National Park this week.
Both mother and calf are doing very well. The rare and native bred is distinguished by its black colour, grazing outdoors in all seasons and is extremely hardy. The newborn calf can expect a long and peaceful life grazing in the National Park – the half moon close to Torc Waterfall is a popular grazing field.
Kerry cattle are a rare breed of dairy cattle – native to Kerry, descended from the Celtic Shorthorn, brought to Ireland as early as 2000BC. They are considered one of the oldest breeds in Europe, known for their milk quality and gentle nature.
Killarney National Park recognises the importance of conserving the historic Muckross herd. Former owners of Muckross Estate, Arthur Rose Vincent, were passionate about the Kerry Calf. Today, the rare bred are cared and managed by Chief Herdsman, Mike Fleming, particularity for preservation and agricultural heritage.
Another prolific breed is the ‘Cahernane Kerry’ owned and bred by dairy farmer, Ms Hilliard of Cahernane, Killarney. Ms Hilliard is one of the strongest advocators in the preservation and conservation of the bred. She is life-long secretary of the Kerry Cattle Society.
New local date for Hozier this summer
With over 22 billion global streams Hozier, whose other shows are completly sold out, has announced a new date in...
First born Kerry Calf of the year is a girl!
The first born Kerry Calf of 2023 was born at Muckross National Park this week. Both mother and calf are...
Two new summer routes to Brittany
Two new summer routes to Quimper and Brest in Brittany have been added to to Kerry Airport’s summer schedule. Commencing...
Luciano now running Iguana Cafe at racecourse
By Michelle Crean Luciano Oliveira came to Killarney to learn English but five years on he has well and truly...
Dance championships worth €12m to local economy
Over 2,500 dancers are set to take part in a major dance event this weekend bringing with it a nice economic boost...
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