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The second biggest bank failure in history

Published

3 years ago

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By Michael O’Connor, theislandinvestor.com

The answer…about four days.

This week was dominated by the second-largest bank failure in US history.

A lot has already been written about the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), but let's break it down in simple terms and look at the potential implications for investors.

Firstly, the issues that unfolded in SVB were not driven by fraud or questionable lending policies but by an asset-liability mismatch. SVB used liquid customer deposits to purchase longer-dated but safe, treasuries and MBS securities.

Tech-based start-ups and VC companies represented the majority of SVB's customers. These customers made a lot of money in recent years as the value of their companies skyrocketed, and they needed somewhere to put all this cash. So they gave it to SVB.

Typically banks will make profits by taking that money and lending it out to customers at higher interest rates in the form of loans. However, the majority of SVB's customers didn't need loans, so SVB invested all that cash in longer-dated bonds.

So, they now have very liquid liabilities (deposits) being offset by not-so-liquid assets (longer-term bonds).

There is nothing inherently wrong with this. Banks do it all the time. However, this interest rate risk would typically be hedged using swaps, but SVB had no such interest rate hedges in place to protect itself. This was the fatal mistake. Some shocking risk management decisions left them making a massive bet on the direction of interest rates. As you have probably guessed by now, the gamble didn't pay off.

As interest rates went up, the bonds went down in value.

Still, this is a relatively avoidable disaster, provided all depositors don't require their money back at the same time.

Lo and behold, some customers got nervous and withdrew their deposits. As more customers did this, SVB had to sell some of the 'safe' bonds they had purchased at a $1.8bn loss in order to give money back to customers.

Then some venture capital companies advised their start-ups to get their money out of SVB, which spooked customers further.

From there, more money is withdrawn, so SVB sells more bonds and books more losses … the vicious cycle feeds on itself until it's all over.

Two takeaways

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While these latest developments are reminiscent of the GFC days, there are some crucial differences.

In my opinion, the risk of contagion remains low, mainly due to the Fed's decision to step in and protect deposit holders on Sunday evening.

Also, large US banks (above $250 Billion) have greater regulation scrutiny, have less concentrated exposure to a single niche and have smaller investment portfolios relative to total assets. Almost 60% of SBV's total assets were held in its investment portfolio vs a 25% average for US banks.

From here, I expect to see further concentration in the banking sector. Customers will flow from Tier 2 banks towards the larger (too big to fail) fully regulated institutions.

People are finally starting to realise that banks don't hold your money safely in a vault. You are simply a largely unsecured creditor in a system leveraging your money to make profits.

Bank deposit rates remain close to zero, so you are getting all the risk and none of the reward.

At the very least, any money that isn't needed for day-to-day living should be moved into very short-term T-bills or Euro bonds. These provide higher returns and a better level of protection for your assets. It's a no-brainer.

If you would like me to help you go from uninvested to invested, email mike@theislandinvestor.com or scan the QR code.

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Tree of Light ceremony on Monday

The spectacular 100ft Tree of Light in Killarney, festooned with close on 3,000 lights and topped with a giant star, will again illuminate the town this Christmas with the official […]

Published

9 hours ago

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7 December 2025

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The spectacular 100ft Tree of Light in Killarney, festooned with close on 3,000 lights and topped with a giant star, will again illuminate the town this Christmas with the official switch-on date planned for Monday next, December 8.

The lighting up ceremony will take place after a community Mass in the adjacent St Mary’s Cathedral at 6.15pm and a short prayer service will mark the big switch-on.
The towering Tree of Light is a landmark giant Californian Redwood tree located just outside the main door of the Pugin-designed building.
The project is an collaboration between a sub-committee of Killarney Chamber of Tourism and Commerce and the Killarney parish and it creates a wonderful focal point in the town in the lead up to and during the festive season.
Killarney Parish Administrator, Fr Kieran O’Brien and Christmas in Killarney Chairman, Cllr Niall Kelleher extend a warm invitation to all community groups, schools, clubs and organisations, families and individuals to attend the special Mass next Monday evening or to visit the tree this Christmastime.
The feature star on the spectacular tree will take on an extra special meaning this year as it will be dedicated to the late Donal Grady, a long-serving local councillor and former Mayor of Killarney who worked diligently and passionately for the community.
Donal, who passed away in 2024, was a dedicated public representative who worked with great passion and a real sense of purpose on behalf of his loyal supporters.
Through his work as a long-serving chief fire officer in Killarney, he helped so many families at a time when they most needed assistance and reassurance and he brought a great sense of calm and responsibility to the position
The Tree of Light was first lit to mark the millennium year when it commemorated all those who lost their lives in the conflict in Northern Ireland and it was again illuminated in the mid-2000s to remember those who had been killed on Irish roads.
Since then the project is all about community and it celebrates the fact that Killarney is such a wonderful town to live in.
In the past, the star at the top of the tree has been dedicated to great community activists Johnny Hickey, Yvonne Quill, Paul Coghlan and Rena Kennelly.

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O’Donoghue planning National Rally Championship campaign

Published

11 hours ago

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7 December 2025

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Killarney’s Colin and Kieran O’Donoghue claimed victory in the Modified section of the Killarney Towers Hotel Killarney Historic Rally, delivering a controlled run in their Ford Escort Mk2 to secure Colin’s second win in the category and Kieran’s first.


At the finish ramp outside the Plaza Hotel on Saturday evening, Colin O’Donoghue confirmed he is considering a step into the Triton Showers Motorsport Ireland National Rally Championship next season.

He said he plans to travel to Mayo in March to see how the opening round suits before making a decision.

O’Donoghue set the fastest time on all nine stages to secure the win over second-placed Chris Armstrong/Conor Smith, also in a Ford Escort.


Third place went to Gary McPhillips and Conor Mohan, 17.9 seconds further back in their Escort.


The Modified section also featured the battle for the Carrick Cup, awarded in memory of Mike Gaine to the fastest Kenmare-based crew over Moll’s Gap.


This year it went to Tommy Randles/Darragh Lynch, who set the pace among the local contenders and finished 35th overall.

Randles, a long-serving club official, has hinted this could be one of his final competitive outings.


The best Kerry Motor Club crew was John Michael Kennelly / Dylan Harrington, who took fifth overall in the Modified division.

Dave Slattery / Denis Coffey continued their strong season with 13th overall (Class 6, 4th), while Hugh McQuaid and Rathmore school teacher Declan Casey placed 15th overall and sixth in Class 6.

Other locals included Seán Enright / Kevin Doherty who were Class 3 winners on the recent Thomond Rally and backed that up here with another steady finish in 26th.


Tadhg O’Sullivan /Frank Byrnes, Seán Hartnett/Kieran Doherty, Raymond O’Neill/Jason O’Connor, Cyril Wharton/Donal Falvey and Ray Stack/Gene Stack brought their Escorts home safely inside the top 40.

Gary Healy/Niall Myers, switching from a Civic to a Toyota Twin Cam 20V, took third in Class 5.


Paudie O’Callaghan/Daniel Murphy brought their Starlet home fourth in Class 4.


Noel O’Sullivan/Nicholas Burke, one of the few crews to have contested every Historic Rally since it began in 1996, finished 50th overall.


Killarney father-and-son team Tom and Mark O’Sullivan completed the demanding event in their Peugeot 205 GTi.

Representing Kerry Motor Club, Ken McKenna / PJ O’Dowd reached the finish in their Peugeot 205.

Kevin O’Donoghue / John McElhinney used Super Rally to return to the stages after mechanical trouble, as did Kenmare’s Shane McCarthy / Eamonn Creedon who were among several crews targeting future Carrick Cup success and completed their Honda EG6’s run under Super Rally as well.

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