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Housing will never be the same

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Last week I wrote about the pathetic investment options out there for Irish investors.

Despite high ongoing fees (mortgage, maintenance, insurance etc.) and the actual headache of being a landlord, it's easy to see why real estate functioned as the de facto investment portfolio for an entire generation.

Wealth creation was a rinse-and-repeat function where couples put money away until they had enough for the 'next house'. As a result, we have an economy where 70% of household wealth is tied up in real estate.

Driven by the profits it created, Ireland became obsessed with owning real estate.

But real estate as an investment won't be nearly as successful for our generation. (If you are able to get a house, that is)

All you have to do is look at the anecdotal evidence all around us to confirm this.

My parents bought the house they currently live in for 30k (pounds) 35 years ago. The house is now worth roughly 450k.

I typically despise these back-of-the-envelope calculations when It comes to property, given the endless variables and ongoing costs involved, but bear with me.

That's a gross return of 15 times the original value. Now there are upgrades, a change in currency and other adjustments to consider here, so for argument's sake, let's call it 10X.

To achieve the same level of growth over the next 35 years, you would be left paying 4,500,000 euros for what is a pretty modest house.

Sure, we will still see property prices increase over time, but the rate of growth won't be anywhere near as meaningful for one simple reason.

Interest rates.

Artificial Growth

Over the last 30 years, real economic growth has been stagnant, yet Ireland has experienced enviable nominal growth.

How did we manage it?

We created imaginary wealth.

We pushed interest rates lower and lower to stimulate economic growth.

And it worked.

After all, if you make 100k/year you can probably afford a 400k mortgage at 4%. At 2%, with the same 100k/year salary you can now take on 600k in debt.

So, were we getting richer, or was the debt just easier to afford?

Where do we go from here?

We have now squeezed interest rates as low as they can go.

The house price appreciation we have seen was justifiable because the mortgage rates on housing continued to fall in recent decades. This allowed people to take on more debt without severely impacting their ability to repay that debt.

If we go back to my parents, they were paying 14% on their mortgage. Mortgage rates are currently between 2 to 3%.

A relentless drop in interest rates gave way to higher and higher prices for houses, but interest rates are now on the floor.

The juice has been squeezed.

In fact, the trend has started to reverse, with rates expected to rise 1.5% in the first half of 2023

Be mindful that the same credit expansion cannot happen again.

How the next generation thinks about their investment options has to change.

Banks offering 0% returns for the use of your money and a housing ladder you can't get on are not your only two options.

If you need help creating your own investment portfolio, just reach out to me at mike@theislandinvestor or simply scan the QR code above.

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St Brendan’s College: Voices from the Halls

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Interview conducted by Aodhagán Ó Súilleabháin, Cormac Flanagan, and Ryan Twomey.

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Name: Kieran O’Leary – Entrepreneur and Killarney businessman.
Year of Graduation: 2005

Occupation: I would be the Jack of all trades and the master of none. I am involved in the hospitality industry. I have Corkery’s Bar, Revive Café, Ruckus Café and I’m a part of Integrity gym, so I do a lot of coaching. The passion by me would be probably in the fitness industry, because I played at a high enough sporting level and that’s come to an end now so I’m kind of concentrating on the coaching early mornings, hospitality day and evening and I have a young family as well so that’s obviously the biggest priority of all.


Could you describe a typical day for you?
I wake up at 5.30 and I am in the Gym for 6am. I work with clients till 8.30 – 9:00am. I then have school drop off, check the stock in the cafes and open Corkery’s. I kind of float around all day, kind of just helping where I can, and then evening time is probably the most hectic, at home, the kids might have football, well the young fella has football, he does a bit of Jiu-Jitsu, and dinner, stop, start, repeat the following day. I work hard, when you’re self-employed it can be difficult, but I try to get down time on Sundays or maybe Wednesdays.

What drew you to St Brendan’s as a school?
It was the sports that kind of drew me. The past pupils that I would have known from the sports clubs and would have seen their careers progress. It’s renowned, the history behind the Sem is unbelievable. I wasn’t really going anywhere else. The history behind it, the stories that come out of it, the people that have progressed and done so well in life. I don’t mean success by wealth, they seem to be happy in their professional life, happy with their life decisions and I suppose the Sem has a huge part playing in that.


Would you have kept in contact with any teachers?
Even now you see older teachers that may be retired or are even still there, they still have a bit of time for you, and they’ll stand in the street and say how are you getting on? We live in a small town, where everyone knows kind of everyone’s business to such an extent, so I think just the camaraderie, friendships and like the great times we had, I’ll always remember that. 



Would you have kept in contact with your classmates?
The friends I made. They are lifelong friends. We were lucky enough to be a part of a good few sporting teams, and we would have progressed through the Kerry GAA side of things, and then there’s a lot of them working around here, a few of them abroad, but you’d have your core five or six fellas that you still stay in contact with. Outside of that if you saw past students of the school around the town, of course you’d stop and talk to them.


Were there any specific academic programmes or teaching methods at the school that helped you succeed in what you’re in today?
I didn’t apply myself the way I’d like to which is kind of a regret, but I did Business Studies with Joanna Ryan, she was a very good teacher. I went on to do business which I didn’t complete in IT Tralee, and funnily enough, then I got involved in the business side of things, so it’s funny how things work out. Just because you mightn’t do the best Leaving Cert doesn’t mean that you’re a failure, there’s always an opportunity around the corner and if you’re willing to apply yourself in any shape, way or form then you’ll succeed. It’s all about the mindset, discipline and as I said, my mindset was GAA, maybe even soccer related when I was that age, I could see nothing else, I was a bit blinkered, but as you broaden your horizons as you get a bit older, more mature you realise there’s different ways to go about your goals.




Can you share an example of how a teacher or staff member made a meaningful impact on your growth.
I’d say Seamus Grealy to be honest, because he is an excellent teacher. He was a soccer coach and he would have seen the potential in me and even though the application mightn’t have been there at times. He still persisted and gave me that chance to try and achieve the best possible grade I could within the Leaving Cert year.  I would have done honours English even though my mother and father were saying “What are you doing?, you know, because I hadn’t the work done or whatever. The fact that he gave me that kind of TLC. I needed, that kind of arm around the shoulder, to say, listen there’s more in you, try your best, and as you know he can be firm as well, I just found him pretty good to deal with. 

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Official launch of the Assess Ireland Rally of the Lakes set for April 11

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The official launch of the 2026 Assess Ireland Rally of the Lakes will take place at Gleneagle Hotel on Saturday, April 11.

The organising team will reveal key details of the upcoming event, including an up-to-date entry list and several new innovations for this year’s rally.

Representatives from three major championships will be in attendance: the NAPA Irish Tarmac Rally Championship, the GK Print Southern 4 Rally Championship, and the Kingdom of Kerry Rally Championship.

Local councillors and politicians will also be present to offer their formal backing to the event, which remains a significant economic driver for the region.

The launch begins at 5:00pm with a display of rally cars outside the hotel. Several local rally drivers will be on hand to meet fans, and an open invitation has been extended to all members of the public and rally enthusiasts to attend

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