By Ted Healy of DNG TED HEALY

With planning permissions being overturned by An Bord Pleanála in the local news this week, it is interesting to note that it is estimated in excess of 50,000 housing units could be completed in the country in the two years to the end of 2023, according to the Banking and Payments Federation Ireland (BPFI).

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In its latest Housing Market Monitor, the BPFI said that it could help meet the demand for housing which is being driven by employment growth and rising incomes.

Estimates from various bodies say the industry needs to be completing between around 30,000 and 35,000 housing units per year to keep pace with demand and projected population increases.

Others argue that the figure is likely much higher when demand for rental accommodation and the trend towards smaller household composition is taken into account.

The Central Bank forecast earlier this year that 24,500 units would be completed this year - 29,000 in 2023 and 33,000 in 2024.

According to Brian Hayes, CEO of the BPFI, "The Irish banking sector has the capacity to provide further sustainable mortgage lending. Taking all factors into account however is it critical that housing supply needs to continue to increase in order to moderate house price increases and enhance affordability in the market.”

Residential property prices increased by just over 14% in the year to June, according to the Central Statistics Office (CSO), as the supply of properties continued to lag demand.

“The fundamental driver of the significant increase in average residential property prices in Ireland in recent years has been the lack of supply of new homes as opposed to lending growth, which was observed in mid-2000s," Ali Uğur, Chief Economist, Banking & Payments Federation Ireland, said.

He referenced Central Bank figures which showed that as of the end of 2021, over 45% of mortgage lending had been issued under lending rules introduced by the regulator in 2015 which restricted lending based on income and the value of the property.

So with national house building numbers on the rise, what about locally?

The recent An Bord Pleanála decision to refuse planning permission for the construction of a 228 unit development on Port Road has received a mixed reaction. A separate planning permission for a development of 30 units in Ballycasheen, Killarney, was overturned by the Bord earlier this year.

With little new home development on the horizon for Killarney being the net result, where are our next generation to live?

A shortage of available properties for sale, both new build and second hand, in the Killarney market has led to spiralling house prices. Now with no major increased supply expected in the short to medium term, prices can be expected to remain strong, despite forecasted interest rate increases.