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The only certainty is uncertainty

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By Michael O’Connor   

"History is just one damn thing after another" - Arnold Toynbee

Late last week, the emergence of a new COVID-19 variant in South Africa sent shockwaves worldwide, upending what had been a reasonably quiet week for the stock market. On Friday last, a steep sell-off left the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq down 2.2% and 3.5%, respectively.

This 147th twist in the pandemic tale got me thinking about how much we think we know when really, we know nothing at all.

At the start of the year nobody would have predicted that 2020 would have played out the way it did. Very few would have predicted that 2021, with promising vaccines and a return to normality would have represented so little change, but here we are.

Everyone loves to pretend like they fully understand what this all means and what will happen next. I get it; who doesn’t love the warm cozy allure of certainty. We all want to exist in a world where we know what lies around the corner.

History is a perpetual stream of mistaken opinions and unpredictable outcomes, but the predictions won’t stop. People will cast their views with deluded certainty about what to expect next by extrapolating the current conditions out into the future, but the current conditions aren’t a constant, and the game is always changing.

Unfortunately, the reality is, nobody knows what’s next, and the sooner you can discard any naive sense of conviction, the easier it will be in both life and investing. While this statement may seem morbid on the surface, loosening our grip on our need for certainty can be liberating.

Remember, while it is important to have expectations and predictions, predictions are not fact, and you will be wrong. Not always, but you will be wrong, so try not to be overly tethered to your current version of the truth.

Lean into the uncertainty

Accepting that nothing is certain can often be cast as an impotent statement in a world obsessed with knowing all the answers.

In an industry where uncertainty is the ultimate enemy, telling investors to submit to it is often met with disdain, but accepting the inevitability of uncertainty is so important if you want to avoid going stir crazy as you try and hold for the long term.

Of course, discarding uncertainty is easier said than done. Worrying about factors beyond our control is an inherent part of the human condition. However, simply being aware that the game is not predictable and nobody truly knows the final outcome may help you reduce your craving for certainty.

My advice

Stop reaching for perfection in a world of constant uncertainty. Stop obsessing about making the right decision one hundred percent of the time. Even the best investors in history have had their fair share of howlers. Ultimately you just need to be right more often than you are wrong.

The solution

Create an investment portfolio centred around what you believe to be the most probable outcome based on available information and incorporate enough diversification to function as a buffer.

In a world where anything is possible, all you can do is focus on what is most probable, allow for a margin of error to support you when your assumed outcomes don’t play out and simply let go of the rest.

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European title for Killarney handball star

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By Con Dennehy

Killarney handball star Owen Brosnan answered Ireland’s call at the weekend with a breathtaking display at the European One Wall Tour in London.

Currow native and Spa Killarney Handballer, Brosnan took on the best players in England, Wales, Ireland, Holland, Belgium, France and Israel and thanks to a superb display returned back to Kerry with a European gold medal following his phenomenal success in the Men’s C Plate competition.
Played at the Westway Sports Complex in London, more than 150 players took part in the competition on six indoor courts with Brosnan and his Killarney team colleague Tim Cronin playing 15 games over the two days. Following earlier round victories, Brosnan was paired with Tim Cronin in a Kerry dominated semifinal clash. This was an exciting high-octane game with both players producing a classic display of handball. Aces were hard fought with just one point separating both players at the end of a pulsating game. Brosnan advanced to the final on a 21-20 scoreline. “I was thrilled with my semifinal game. It was a hard-fought contest with all the training at the Spa GAA Hall helping me edge out a win. We train together and know each other strengths and weaknesses which added to the excitement of the occasion. We both teamed up in the Men’s B Plate Doubles competition reaching the semifinal where we were defeated by Matt Flapan and Gleb Spiridon, a USA/Israel combination,” said Owen.
Brosnan produced a superb display of fast paced handball in the Men’s C Plate final where his opponent was the highly fancied Josh Thomas from Wales. Using the court to his full advantage, the Killarney player produced a brilliant all-round performance to record a 21-18 victory and in the process his first major title.
“Naturally, I was delighted with the success. Both Tim and I started the sport by accident over 12 months ago when we attended an Open Family Day at Spa GAA Club. Brendan O’Donoghue, one of the founders of Spa Killarney Handball Club, was giving a demonstration of handball and invited us to try it out. We both enjoyed the experience and have been playing ever since. We are looking forward to the various domestic competitions over the coming months and really enjoy the training and fun element to the sport in the club.”

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Powerful photo display at St Mary’s brings Ukraine conflict home

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A unique photo exhibition has been installed on the railings outside St Mary’s Church of Ireland in Killarney town centre, offering a stark reminder of the human cost of the war in Ukraine. 

Organised by the local branch of the ‘Future of Ukrainian Nation’, the display serves as a bridge between the local community and the families who have fled to Kerry.

The display features portraits of several Ukrainian and Irish soldiers who have died or remain missing in action, as well as members of the media killed on the front line. 

Most poignantly, it captures the homes and memories of refugees now living in Killarney, showing the physical destruction of the lives they left behind.

Iryna Synelnykova, a teacher and activist with the “Future of Ukrainian Nation,” shared the story of her family’s summer house. The home was located on Potemkin Island in the Kherson region, along the Dnipro River. Iryna recalls countless happy moments shared there, but tragedy struck on July 6, 2023. Following the explosion of the Kakhovka hydroelectric station, the island and the house were submerged. As the water receded, Russian artillery inflicted further destruction. The area is now mined and occupied by military personnel, leaving the family with no way to return.

Another selection of photos captures the destroyed apartment building of Maryna Ivashenko in Mariupol, which was levelled by Russian attacks. 

The exhibition also featured the family home of another  resident in Mariupol.

 In that instance, 17 shells struck the house, with one hitting the kitchen while the family was hiding in the basement. Though they miraculously survived and escaped to Killarney, they have no home to return to.

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