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The only certainty is uncertainty

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By Michael O’Connor   

"History is just one damn thing after another" - Arnold Toynbee

Late last week, the emergence of a new COVID-19 variant in South Africa sent shockwaves worldwide, upending what had been a reasonably quiet week for the stock market. On Friday last, a steep sell-off left the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq down 2.2% and 3.5%, respectively.

This 147th twist in the pandemic tale got me thinking about how much we think we know when really, we know nothing at all.

At the start of the year nobody would have predicted that 2020 would have played out the way it did. Very few would have predicted that 2021, with promising vaccines and a return to normality would have represented so little change, but here we are.

Everyone loves to pretend like they fully understand what this all means and what will happen next. I get it; who doesn’t love the warm cozy allure of certainty. We all want to exist in a world where we know what lies around the corner.

History is a perpetual stream of mistaken opinions and unpredictable outcomes, but the predictions won’t stop. People will cast their views with deluded certainty about what to expect next by extrapolating the current conditions out into the future, but the current conditions aren’t a constant, and the game is always changing.

Unfortunately, the reality is, nobody knows what’s next, and the sooner you can discard any naive sense of conviction, the easier it will be in both life and investing. While this statement may seem morbid on the surface, loosening our grip on our need for certainty can be liberating.

Remember, while it is important to have expectations and predictions, predictions are not fact, and you will be wrong. Not always, but you will be wrong, so try not to be overly tethered to your current version of the truth.

Lean into the uncertainty

Accepting that nothing is certain can often be cast as an impotent statement in a world obsessed with knowing all the answers.

In an industry where uncertainty is the ultimate enemy, telling investors to submit to it is often met with disdain, but accepting the inevitability of uncertainty is so important if you want to avoid going stir crazy as you try and hold for the long term.

Of course, discarding uncertainty is easier said than done. Worrying about factors beyond our control is an inherent part of the human condition. However, simply being aware that the game is not predictable and nobody truly knows the final outcome may help you reduce your craving for certainty.

My advice

Stop reaching for perfection in a world of constant uncertainty. Stop obsessing about making the right decision one hundred percent of the time. Even the best investors in history have had their fair share of howlers. Ultimately you just need to be right more often than you are wrong.

The solution

Create an investment portfolio centred around what you believe to be the most probable outcome based on available information and incorporate enough diversification to function as a buffer.

In a world where anything is possible, all you can do is focus on what is most probable, allow for a margin of error to support you when your assumed outcomes don’t play out and simply let go of the rest.

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Paralympic legend Jason Smyth visits St Brendan’s

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Paralympic legend Jason Smyth visits St Brendan’s


World renowned Paralympian and world record holder Jason Smyth paid a visit to St Brendan’s College on Wednesday afternoon as part of a high profile visit to Killarney.


The six time Paralympic gold medallist spoke to second year students from St Brendan’s College, alongside students from neighbouring schools St Brigid’s Presentation Secondary School and Killarney Community College.
The interactive talk and interview took place ahead of World Sight Day, with the legendary sprinter sharing his personal journey with Stargardt disease, a genetic eye condition that left him legally blind at eight years old.
The Derry native, who holds the world record as the fastest Paralympian on earth over 100 metres, offered inspiring insights into overcoming physical adversity and achieving success at the highest level of world sport.
The school visit formed the opening leg of his Killarney schedule before he took centre stage later on Wednesday evening at The Killarney Plaza Hotel & Spa.
Smyth headlined An Evening with Paralympian Jason Smyth, an event organised by the Killarney Chamber of Tourism and Commerce as part of its winter schedule, sponsored by AIB.

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Deerpark Retail Park placed on market for fifteen million euro

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Deerpark Retail Park in Killarney has officially been placed on the market with a guide price in excess of 15.4 million euro, excluding VAT.

International real estate firm Cushman & Wakefield has been appointed as the sole sales agent to handle the high-profile commercial property sale on behalf of its current owner, Investcorp.

Investcorp, a global investment management firm headquartered in Bahrain, had previously acquired the prominent shopping complex.


The sale represents one of the largest commercial property offerings to launch in County Kerry this year.

Located roughly 1.3 kilometres west of Killarney town centre, the scheme enjoys strong regional connectivity and sits adjacent to independently owned operations including a Tesco Extra store, a Tesco petrol filling station, JYSK, and Aldi.


Constructed in 2006, the development extends across approximately 10,482 square metres, or 112,835 square feet.

The scheme comprises a mix of modern retail warehouse units and a complementary neighbourhood centre, offering 13 individual units in total with Part Open and Part Bulky Use planning permission.

The units range in size from 94.6 square metres up to 1,994.9 square metres. Visitors have access to approximately 248 customer parking spaces across the commercial grounds.

The park is currently 100 per cent occupied by a strong line-up of established national and international brands.

Key retail tenants include Marks & Spencer, Boots, DID Electrical, Maxi Zoo, and Mountain Warehouse.

The neighbourhood centre element accommodates service and convenience operators such as Costa Coffee, Card Factory, and Salon B.

The first-floor accommodation is fully let to Peak Performance Academy, which provides additional rental diversification.

Additionally, the scheme benefits from an agreement with Tesla to operate eight electric vehicle charging bays within the customer car park.


Commercial figures show that the property generates a total current rental income of 1,326,458 euro per annum, with a weighted average unexpired lease term of 4.45 years to break options and 6.46 years to lease expiry.

Cushman & Wakefield noted that the quoted guide price of 15.4 million euro reflects a net initial yield of 7.83 per cent, assuming standard purchaser costs of 9.96 per cent.

The selling agents highlighted that the fully occupied asset offers investors an attractive income profile alongside scope for additional income generation through parking commercialisation.

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